My buddy and I worked the last week or so putting together a system to try out for the NCAA Tournament. We looked at the last two years of data for each team. We then backtested the data on last year's tournament and optimized it to 73% win rate.
GQI stands for Game Quality Index and what it basically does is compute a score that takes into account a team's momentum going into the tournament and also the SOS statistics for the season (gives more value to these variables) as a stat.
This is a beta system only but I will be putting $ behind the plays (1 unit = $100) Here are the round 1 plays based on the system:
Duke and North Dakota State had the highest GQI scores for round 1 so will put in only a 2 unit bet on Duke due to the spread also expected to be very high of course
3 unit North Dakota State +18
3 unit Wyoming +6
3 unit Indiana +5.5
2 units Louisville -8
2 units Oklahoma -12.5
2 units North Carolina -10.5
2 units Notre Dame -12.5
1 unit Lafayette +23
1 unit E. Wash +7.5
1 unit Kansas -10.5
1 unit Baylor -9
Wish everyone all the best of luck during the tourney. Will see how this goes for me.
My buddy and I worked the last week or so putting together a system to try out for the NCAA Tournament. We looked at the last two years of data for each team. We then backtested the data on last year's tournament and optimized it to 73% win rate.
GQI stands for Game Quality Index and what it basically does is compute a score that takes into account a team's momentum going into the tournament and also the SOS statistics for the season (gives more value to these variables) as a stat.
This is a beta system only but I will be putting $ behind the plays (1 unit = $100) Here are the round 1 plays based on the system:
Duke and North Dakota State had the highest GQI scores for round 1 so will put in only a 2 unit bet on Duke due to the spread also expected to be very high of course
3 unit North Dakota State +18
3 unit Wyoming +6
3 unit Indiana +5.5
2 units Louisville -8
2 units Oklahoma -12.5
2 units North Carolina -10.5
2 units Notre Dame -12.5
1 unit Lafayette +23
1 unit E. Wash +7.5
1 unit Kansas -10.5
1 unit Baylor -9
Wish everyone all the best of luck during the tourney. Will see how this goes for me.
One question I have is: If the system is hitting at a 73% clip, then why do you have different unit bets? Just wondering if there is a specific pattern you see to make larger bets on certain games or if it is the numbers you have seen in the past that are making the bigger wager specific on certain games because they typically play out in your favor.
I love system plays in MLB, NFL and NCAAB and usually always follow them once I see how they run and if they win. The reason I love them is that I suck at capping NCAAB and MLB, mainly because I don't have the time to watch enough games and the NFL because who in the world can cap that sport consistently. I am a college football guy for sure though.
Anyway, like I said, good luck to you and looking forward to seeing how your pick play out.
One question I have is: If the system is hitting at a 73% clip, then why do you have different unit bets? Just wondering if there is a specific pattern you see to make larger bets on certain games or if it is the numbers you have seen in the past that are making the bigger wager specific on certain games because they typically play out in your favor.
I love system plays in MLB, NFL and NCAAB and usually always follow them once I see how they run and if they win. The reason I love them is that I suck at capping NCAAB and MLB, mainly because I don't have the time to watch enough games and the NFL because who in the world can cap that sport consistently. I am a college football guy for sure though.
Anyway, like I said, good luck to you and looking forward to seeing how your pick play out.
One question I have is: If the system is hitting at a 73% clip, then why do you have different unit bets? Just wondering if there is a specific pattern you see to make larger bets on certain games or if it is the numbers you have seen in the past that are making the bigger wager specific on certain games because they typically play out in your favor.
I love system plays in MLB, NFL and NCAAB and usually always follow them once I see how they run and if they win. The reason I love them is that I suck at capping NCAAB and MLB, mainly because I don't have the time to watch enough games and the NFL because who in the world can cap that sport consistently. I am a college football guy for sure though.
Anyway, like I said, good luck to you and looking forward to seeing how your pick play out.
Hey WM Thank you for the response. So, I'm more the sports degenerate and my friend is the Excel guy. Here is his explanation:
Based on the Game Quality Index (GQI).Every game that every team has played gets a GQI which is (Score Ratio + Rank Ratio)/(average of the two teams ranks).The score ratio and rank ratio are 'weighted and normalized' which would be a normal thing to do to any data you use in a model.So for example if you lose by a lot to a lower ranked team your game GQI will be very low.If you win by a lot against a higher ranked team your GQI will be very high.And everywhere in between.
So to answer your question about why we wouldn't bet each game the same.....every team gets a GQI score. There has to be a winnner and a loser but we base our 3-2-1 plays off the delta in the GQI scores. Some matchups are really a coin toss based on the stats so that is why we segmented them.
One question I have is: If the system is hitting at a 73% clip, then why do you have different unit bets? Just wondering if there is a specific pattern you see to make larger bets on certain games or if it is the numbers you have seen in the past that are making the bigger wager specific on certain games because they typically play out in your favor.
I love system plays in MLB, NFL and NCAAB and usually always follow them once I see how they run and if they win. The reason I love them is that I suck at capping NCAAB and MLB, mainly because I don't have the time to watch enough games and the NFL because who in the world can cap that sport consistently. I am a college football guy for sure though.
Anyway, like I said, good luck to you and looking forward to seeing how your pick play out.
Hey WM Thank you for the response. So, I'm more the sports degenerate and my friend is the Excel guy. Here is his explanation:
Based on the Game Quality Index (GQI).Every game that every team has played gets a GQI which is (Score Ratio + Rank Ratio)/(average of the two teams ranks).The score ratio and rank ratio are 'weighted and normalized' which would be a normal thing to do to any data you use in a model.So for example if you lose by a lot to a lower ranked team your game GQI will be very low.If you win by a lot against a higher ranked team your GQI will be very high.And everywhere in between.
So to answer your question about why we wouldn't bet each game the same.....every team gets a GQI score. There has to be a winnner and a loser but we base our 3-2-1 plays off the delta in the GQI scores. Some matchups are really a coin toss based on the stats so that is why we segmented them.
sometimes when you backtest you can fall into the trap of custom fitting.
Good luck
hope it works
Valid point. What we are trying to do is come up with a system that we can implement for other sports as well based on historical outcomes. Having some fun trying this out anyways will have to see.
sometimes when you backtest you can fall into the trap of custom fitting.
Good luck
hope it works
Valid point. What we are trying to do is come up with a system that we can implement for other sports as well based on historical outcomes. Having some fun trying this out anyways will have to see.
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