Calgary at Hamilton +4
Hamilton wins at home and Calgary plays nothing but close games on the road lately, so with the line at +4 for the home team, I’m going with the Ti-cats here. Hamilton has won 4 in a row at home, and a couple of those games were vs. teams coming off good road victories. Calgary may or may not win this game straight up, but their last 3 road games have been close. They’ve won and lost close games in Edmonton over the last month and won a close 3 point game in Toronto after their bye week.
Toronto at BC –7.5
BC’s played good the last 2 games vs. Montreal but can they keep it up….don’t know. If the team that showed up vs. Montreal and Saskatchewan comes to play then they can cover the 7.5 easily. If they team that showed up vs. Winnipeg and Calgary comes to play, probably not. Bottom line, BC’s very inconsistent at home. Toronto’s lost 2 in a row on the road. Both of those losses came against good home teams like Montreal and Hamilton, both have a combined home record of 9-0 in their last 9 home games. The Argo’s have proven that vs. the right team or situation that they are capable of winning on the road like they did in Hamilton on opening day or in Winnipeg in week 4. Historically, BC has owned Toronto winning 9 in a row vs. the Argos including 6 in a row at home. The last 4 home games have been decided by 7 points or more, and the last 2 home meetings have been won by BC by a combined total of 55 points.
Winnipeg at Montreal –14.5
Some people might be afraid to bet on Winnipeg after what happened vs. Saskatchewan. But I’m not and here’s why. Winnipeg is much better team on the road than at home. Even though they’re just 2-4 away from home if you look at the point margins you’ll realize that the 14.5 will be tough to cover for Montreal. In 4 road losses this season, Winnipeg have lost by 2,8,12, and 15 points. Another trend I noticed about Winnipeg was that for most of this season they’ve been in a Win-Loss-Loss pattern. They’ve lost their last 2 games in a row, so they could be on pace for a good effort in Montreal this week. Montreal were beating up opponents their first 3 home games by double digits, but in their last 2 home games they’ve started to fade a little. A 9 point win vs. Saskatchewan isn’t bad, but that game wasn’t their best effort and Saskatchewan was hanging in with the Al’s all the way into the 4th quarter. Then their last game vs. BC ended up being much closer then it should have been, as the Al’s pulled off a late victory vs. the Lions. All in all, given Winnipeg’s road play this season and Montreal’s last 2 home games, I’m going to bet on a Winnipeg cover this week
Edmonton and Saskatchewan -4