MrECapps

Keep chipping away Herb - bankroll creeping higher!

Betting dogs is always tougher but keep in mind that faves are 5-0 in the playoffs so far and the books will begin to adjust accordingly.  

Love it -  Mikolas is a gas can - Mets -1/2 F5 -135 also easier money than rasslin gators. 

Didn't have data on which playoff round but managed a rough estimate by adding that the team's game 9 games ago was NOT a playoff game.  

playoffs = 1 and ((series game = 1 and line >= 120) or (series game = 2 and p:L and p:line >= 120 and line >= 120)) and ppppppppp:playoffs = 0

110-153 (41.8%) +16.91u +6.4% ROI

@dyamarik

 Will look into the first two series only numbers later today if possible.  Also note that the way I tested it, a team could have been a slight fav in game 1, lost that game, then come back as a dog in game 2 and for my test, that would be a play on.  Not sure if Lippsman would have been on those. 

playoffs = 1 and ((series game = 1 and D) or (series game = 2 and p:L and D))

SDQL

did not do the 120 or better but that's an easy modification to 

playoffs = 1 and ((series game = 1 and line >= 120) or (series game = 2 and p:L and p:line >= 120 and line >= 120))

which went 128-196 (39.5%) +0.88u 0.3% ROI

Nice day Herb!   2-1 w dogs is outstanding. 

Ran a model on this that looked at all playoff series.  Simple rules - bet the dog in series game 1.  Bet the dog in series game 2 if they lost the first game.

Overall very positive numbers but has had down years, though the last one was followed by several nice up years.

Great work - looking forward to the upcoming playoffs

Record: 184-237 43.7%

Units: +22.2

ROI: 5.3%

2023: 8-11 -1.29u -6.8% ROI

2022: 11-6 +10.25u 59.7% ROI

2021: 10-14 +1.35u 5.6% ROI

2020: 10-12 +3.25u 14.8% ROI

2019: 20-19 +6.6u 16.9% ROI

2018: 12-12 +4.22u 17.6% ROI

2017: 10-14 -0.02u 0% ROI

2016: 10-8 +6.20u 34.4% ROI

Starting to heat up!

Oh man the September Dogs ... what a run!  Glad to see you back.  No run lines yet appealing, or do you eschew them?  -1.5 @ +125 would seem to be in your wheelhouse.

Excellent work.  Goalie/ref overlays worth an additional look as are situational rest/travel spots.  Love it that you can make money going 2-6!

Missing NCAAF and NFL on my end for this same period.

@ColinMac

 NFL and NCAAF from last weekend completely missing

Like it

Michigan D looks every bit as good as last year.  Wink Martindale is the original architect of the D that Mike Macdonald and Jesse Minter ran over the last 2 seasons, which seems to be the most innovative in both college and the nfl.  Mich offense is same old offense.  They are going to run as long as they are in the game and you better be prepared to last 4 quarters against those wrecking ball backs otherwise they will be ripping off 15 yards a pop to close it out.

Market price of +230 implies approx 30% chance to win outright.  Looks like a good value even as a standalone.

They are going to throw it around the yard, that's for sure!

Think the OVER is highly correlated w/ SMU -26 in this spot.  

Great first half - let's bring it home in the second!

@Ricodamus

 Keep it rolling Rico!  GL Sir 

denvedder on dodgers/yanks tonight as well