DogbiteWilliams

Based on the very high totals, the entire Finals could be construed as outliers:

PO = 1 and H and total > 223.2   # of games =  191

PO = 1 and H and total < 223.2   # of games = 1761

Adjusting for high totals will shrivel up the sample sizes of most relevant IND-OKC queries, many to the point of uselessness. 

This reminds me of my own outlier opinion on the Michael Jordan vs. LeBron James GOAT controversy:  I say Bill Russell is the GOAT (11 championships in 13 seasons), but clogging up the NBA lane has slumped in importance since three pointers were added.  It's an entirely different era.

Attention SDQL adepts:  Don't make the mistake I made in Comment #375.  Most of the queries I have run for the Finals have produced OU averages of 198-203.  This particular query's OU average was 209.81, but the posted total for the game was about 230.  That's too high to produce many query results, so I used 218.2 for this more realistic query:

PO = 1 and AD and line > 7.2 and TOM > 8.5 and total > 218.2

SU = 3-6, ATS = 4-5

That is a woefully small sample size, so sticking "p:" in front of the parameters won't produce a useful query for series game 2.

How freakishly lucky was IND to win (or how freakishly bad did OKC play to lose) is shown by this present-game query:

PO = 1 and AD and line > 7.2 and TOM > 8.5

SU:   5-22 (-19.0,18.5%)

ATS:  7-20 (-9.4,25.9%)

In the playoffs Away Dogs of 7.5+ points that committed at least 9 more turnovers than their opponents went 5-22 SU (avg margin = -19.0) and 7-20 ATS.

As I have stated several times, I don't watch that much sports compared to the average sports bettor, and I am not a skilled observer when I do.  I just reported some facts that I already knew or dug up.

The oldest sports memory that I DID observe was Bill Mazeroski's dramatic walk-off home run in Game 7 of the 1960 World Series.  It is still one of my all-time greatest sports moments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65Og0gUKfvc

Bad day for me.  That upset loss means I need OKC to win 4 of the next 5 to win my OKC -1.5 games series bet.  I also lost one unit on a 57-26-1 query.  The only thing I did right was to pass on my IND TT Under 110.5 pick.

TC and Indigo999 were right to be leery.

Otto Graham is #1, and I am not saying that just because I am a CLV fan.  He play four seasons (1946-1949) with the All American Football Conference and the Browns won the championship every season.  The Browns moved to the NFL in 1950 (my birth year).  He play 6 seasons and CLV won 3 championships and was in all 6 title games.

The cherry on the sundae:  He played pro basketball for the Rochester Royals of the National Basketball League and they won the championship in the 1945-46 season.  The NBL merged with the Basketball Association of America to form the NBA in 1949.

Interesting factoid from Wikipedia: Born into a family of four boys in Waukegan, Illinois, Graham set a first state record at birth weighing 14 lbs. 12 oz.

Per NBA.com, these are the PO-only DEF ratings and rankings:

IND 113.6 (#9)

OKC 104.7 (#1)

IND's OFF is better which draws them closer in the rankings, but the net rating edge for OKC is huge:

IND 4.1 (#4)

OKC 11.2 (#2)

Covers has moved OKC to -10 on the NBA Scores & Matchups page.  The Consensus is unchanged at IND 60%.

The latest Covers consensus:

IND  60%

OKC  40%

Covers still lists OKC at -9.5; my book has moved to OKC -10.

Good analysis.  Thanks for posting.

I view OKC as historically strong and IND only average based on my analysis of blowout wins.  The big lines are wholly justified.

According to this website, OKC's opening season roster did have the youngest average age, but IND's was just slightly more than one year older:

https://www.nba.com/news/nba-roster-survey-facts-2024-25-season

Playoffs rebound research for TC and his many followers - the SDQL is pretty straightforward:

PO = 1 and RB - o:RB > 3.5

SU:   949-398 (7.2,70.5%)

ATS:  904-424-19 (5.3,68.1%)

In the playoffs, a team that outrebounds their opponent by 4+ in the current game wins 70.5% of the games and covers 68.1% of the games.

PO = 1 and HF and -6.7 > line > -11.7 and RB - o:RB > 3.5

SU:   191-25 (12.3,88.4%)

ATS:  140-75-1 (3.7,65.1%) 

If they are home favorites of -7 to -11.5 points, a team that outrebounds their opponent by 4+ in the current game wins 88.4% of the games and covers 65.1% of the games.  Unfortunately, I have no idea if OKC will have 4 or more RBs than IND in Game 1.

Also, IND has been damn tough opponent this postseason.  When outrebounded by 4+, they have been 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS.

I agree with your analysis, TC.  I think OKC looks historically powerful based on my analysis of blowout wins.  I'm lazy, but I may start a thread.

I took OKC -1.5 games/-250 on Saturday, but I am thinking about adding another unit or two on the series.

Of course the linesmakers know this series is a mismatch; Heritage had OKC -635 to take the series.  That is certainly the largest line I can recall for the NBA championship series.

The ATS margin is way too small to be reliable and useful.  Maybe this might work in some money line parlays.

tppS(W) > 12.5 and AF and p:L

SU:   106-41 (6.3,72.1%)

ATS:  86-57-4 (1.3,60.1%)

Adding one parameter gives it a boost but slashes the number of QRs:

tppS(W) > 12.5 and AF and p:L and op:W

SU:   38-12 (7.5,76.0%)

ATS:  31-18-1 (3.2,63.3%)

Re Comment #340 and turnovers:

I love the Sports Database, but one thing that really bugs me about Sport Data Query Language is that an offensive turnover is a Plus value and a defensive takeaway is a Minus value.  WTF???

Here is a playoff query about turnover margin (TOM) just for this season:

season = 2024 and PO = 1 and TOM < -5.5

SU:   24-2 (16.6,92.3%)

ATS:  21-5 (10.8,80.8%)

In the 2024 playoffs season, teams with at least 6 more takeaways than turnovers win SU 92.3% of the games and cover 80.8% of the games.  Good luck trying to predict that.  If that is what happened in the previous game (p:), it is not predictive:

season = 2024 and PO = 1 and p:TOM < -5.5

SU:   15-15 (3.1,50.0%)

ATS:  12-18 (-0.1,40.0%)

Surprisingly, OKC's big TOM in their clinching game vs. MIN bodes ill for Game 1 vs. IND:

PO = 1 and p:TOM < -5.5 and line < -7.2 and series game = 1

SU:   11-9 (2.7,55.0%)

ATS:  6-14 (-6.5,30.0%)

Teams that clinch a playoff series with at least 6 more takeaways than turnovers only cover 30% of the following series' openers when laying at least 7.5 points.

Good research.  Thanks for the time and effort.

I agree and I took IND ML -177 for 2 units.  I have a bunch of queries that favor IND SU with -177 as a bargain, but tighter ATS margins.  This is the main one with a HUGE sample size:

PO = 1 and HF and p:LAD

SU:   252-107 (6.8,70.2%)  The 6.8 is the average SU margin.

ATS:  200-156-3 (2.3,56.2%)

The Sports Data Query Language on this one is pretty simple, and one needn't be an SDQL pro to understand it:

In the PlayOffs a Home Favorite who Lost as an Away Dog in the previous game is 70.2% SU and 56.2% ATS.

I usually stick to ATS wagers hitting at 59%+ with a minimum average ATS margin of 3+ points.  At -177, any SU queries hitting above 63.8989% create a positive Expected Value.

I am not having a good NBA playoffs run, so feel free to fade me.  Good luck everybody.

Nice sweep, TC.  Congratulations.

Once again I am glad I skipped the game.  Watching that second half scoregasm would have been agonizing.

I changed my mind.  The total climbed to 222 at Heritage, so I took the Under for one unit.

Good luck everybody.