UFC 301 Pantoja vs Erceg Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Astroboy Comes Back to Earth

Alexandre Pantoja is putting his flyweight title on the line against Steve Erceg in tonight's main event for UFC 301 betting.

Pantoja is making his second title defense against a young up-and-comer in Erceg who is just the No. 10 ranked flyweight contender. With that disparity in the rankings, it's no surprise that UFC odds opened with the champ as a -250 favorite, but money has poured in on the challenger, and Pantoja is now at -200 with Erceg at +165.

Here are my best free Pantoja vs. Erceg picks and predictions for Saturday, May 4.

Pantoja vs Erceg prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Pantoja moneyline (-200 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Pantoja by decision or submission (-110 at BET99)

Fight analysis

With Steve Erceg opening at +210 on the moneyline, there was value on the underdog. After all, the top of the flyweight division has been volatile and Alexandre Pantoja was out-struck at distance in his last two fights while Erceg is a crisp striker on the outside. 

However, with money coming in on "Astroboy," the line may have swung too far since this might be a case of "too much, too soon" for Erceg, who made his UFC debut less than a year ago. The problem for the UFC was that Pantoja had already beaten the top contenders, and everybody else ranked in front of Erceg was either coming off an unimpressive performance or injured.

Erceg is 3-0 in the octagon with impressive wins against David Dvorak and Matt Schnell, but this is a shallow division, and there's a big difference between fringe Top-10 guys like Dvorak and Schnell and a champ like Pantoja, who has beaten the cream of the crop. 

Erceg is coming off a spectacular knockout, but Schnell is hittable and chinny and didn't even try to implement his grappling. Pantoja is more durable and has never been finished in his career. If Erceg is unable to put him away, I don't think his takedown and grappling defense will be good enough to get the win. Especially with Pantoja having the power to crack him on the feet and the experience of winning five-round wars where he pushes the pace for 25 minutes. 

Best best analysis

Pantoja hasn't won by knockout since 2019, when he coincidentally starched Schnell. I don't see him knocking out Erceg, who has a strong chin and good lateral movement. However, I could see him either grinding out a decision victory or taking Erceg's back and sinking in a submission.

As good as Erceg's takedown defense has looked against lower-caliber fighters, I'm not confident he'll be able to stifle Pantoja, who has 14 takedowns and 24 minutes of control time in his last two title fights. Erceg is also a good grappler but Pantoja's ability to pass guard and the speed of his transitions on the mat are next level. 

Pantoja vs Erceg odds

Method of Victory	Pantoja	Erceg
To win outright	-200	+165
To win by KO/TKO	+450	+390
To win by points	+250	+550
To win by submission	+245	+1,450
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 5-4-2024.

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Pantoja vs Erceg tale of the tape

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