CJ Cup Byron Nelson Sleeper Picks and Predictions: An Irish Power Surge

The PGA Tour returns to Texas for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch, and the field is anything but flush with the world’s best. Jordan Spieth is the betting favorite in the golf odds this week, followed by Si Woo Kim, Jason Day, and Alex Noren. 

Our long shots and sleepers selections look further down the Byron Nelson odds list, and the weaker field makes this a prime tournament for an out-of-nowhere winner.

Here are our free golf picks for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson sleeper picks

• Adam Schenk to win outright (+4,500 at DraftKings)
• Seamus Power to win outright (+6,000 at FanDuel)
• Doug Ghim to win outright (+6,600 at bet365)

• Adam Schenk Top 40 (-110 at bet365)
• Seamus Power Top 40 (+110 at bet365)
• Doug Ghim Top 40 (+115 at bet365)

Picks were made on 4-30-2024.

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson and TPC Craig Ranch key stats

TPC Craig Ranch will host the CJ Cup Byron Nelson for the fourth consecutive year and going low is the key. Even with the 7,414-yard track dropping to play at a Par 71, Jason Day carded a -23 winning score last year. The wide fairways make accuracy off the tee less of a concern, and added emphasis should be placed on approach play.

While Rowlett Creek comes into play on 14 of the 18 holes, it’s hardly a punitive defense given the low scores, and 10 of 18 holes played under par last year. Additionally, the three Par 5s were the three easiest and lowest-scoring holes relative to par, and each will be reachable in two for most of the field. A pair of short Par 4s (No. 4 and No. 14) are also ripe scoring opportunities, and these five holes featured a combined 57 eagles and 1,089 birdies during last year's event.

In particular, Par 5 scoring has proven to be a must. K.H. Lee played them at a combined -26 when TPC Craig Ranch was a Par 72 during his two victories, and Day went -9 on the Par 5s last year.

Finally, putting has been an asset but not a necessity to having success at this track. Of the seven players to finish T5 or better last year, Austin Eckroat was the only one to finish inside the Top 10 in true strokes gained putting. Still, he paced the field in the metric, and Lee ranked 13th and ninth during his two victories. There is just a much stronger correlation to elite approach and tee-to-green play with Day respectively finishing third and first in true strokes gained on approaches and tee-to-green last year and Lee ranking eighth and fifth in 2022, and second in both metrics in 2021.

• Strokes gained approach
• Strokes gained tee-to-green
• Par 5 scoring average
• Birdie average

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson sleeper predictions

Adam Schenk to win outright (+4,500)

There aren’t many weaknesses in Adam Schenk’s game, and while his track record at TPC Craig Ranch is underwhelming, he’s heading to this event for the sixth consecutive time and fourth at this track. He’s better than average in both Par 5 scoring and bridie averages, and he’s played the weekend in five consecutive events, including a T5 at the Valero and T12 at the Masters.

Additionally, I value his ball-striking form ranking 10th in true strokes gained tee-to-green in this field across his past 12 rounds. Schenk has also been knocking on victory’s door with a pair of runner-up finishes and another six top-10 results over the past year-plus.

There’s also a small edge in the available numbers with BetMGM hanging Schenk at +4,000 to win outright, so the +4,500 DraftKings price presents a positive expected value of 10%.

Pick: Adam Schenk to win outright (+4,500 at DraftKings, 0.25 units)
Pick: Adam Schenk Top 40 (-110 at bet365)

Seamus Power to win outright (+6,000)

Seamus Power has gained strokes on approaches in five consecutive events, and his T12 finish at the RBC Heritage is his best result of the season. The 37-year-old Irishman has won a pair of opposite-field events on the PGA Tour, and he finished T19 at this event last season with a T17 and T9 also on his resume at this track.

Still, I particularly value Power as a strong candidate for statistical correction. He finished 17th on Tour in Par 5 scoring during the 2021-22 season, and after playing the Par 5s at -8 at the RBC Heritage, he’s still ranked 96th in Par 5 scoring this season. He’s also a proven form player who strings together solid finishes in spurts when his game heats up, and I see the beginning stages of a heater in his game.

Finally, there’s an edge in the available odds with Power trading as short at +5,000 through BetMGM. The difference in the numbers is a positive expected value of 22% attached to the +6,000 FanDuel price.

Pick: Seamus Power to win outright (+6,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Seamus Power Top 40 (+110 at bet365)

Doug Ghim to win outright (+6,600)

Doug Ghim is just over a month removed from carding five consecutive Top-20 finishes while gaining true strokes off-the-tee and on approaches in each event. While he’s skidded slightly since then, the 28-year-old American still ranks 13th in true strokes gained on approaches and 15th in true strokes gained tee-to-green in this field across his past 23 measured rounds.

Additionally, while distance isn’t Ghim’s calling card, he still ranks 18th in Par 5 scoring average and 26th in overall scoring average. He also finished T19 here last season while ranking 10th in true strokes gained tee-to-green.

Finally, this is another example where shopping for the best number pays off. Ghim is trading as short as +5,500 through Caesars, so we’re adding a positive expected value of 21% with the +6,600 bet365 odds.

Pick: Doug Ghim to win outright (+6,600 at bet365, 0.25 units)
Pick: Doug Ghim Top 40 (+115 at bet365)

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