Good call on WSH upset, bro. Maybe I should start believing in numbers more and less in my gut-feeling.
Yea it could be but I haven't done as much research into such things in the WNBA due to lack of time, I did a quick check using my lines in last years games and 3 pts seemed to work better, I know 1 year doesn't mean a whole lot but I'll go with it for now.
Yea it could be but I haven't done as much research into such things in the WNBA due to lack of time, I did a quick check using my lines in last years games and 3 pts seemed to work better, I know 1 year doesn't mean a whole lot but I'll go with it for now.
Phoneix pulled it off last night, I will stay with LA coming back to win the series. That game was the closest spread to my line.
My line in game 2 would be LA -3.04.
Sounds about right to me.
Wash -2.81 in game 2. That line is probally around a PK or Atlanta a small fav, because they trail in the series and need to win it may get shaded to Atlanta.
Many times when a team covers they will cover my line as well, meaning Chicago could cover my line of -11.85, it would not surprise me to see that.
Phoneix pulled it off last night, I will stay with LA coming back to win the series. That game was the closest spread to my line.
My line in game 2 would be LA -3.04.
Sounds about right to me.
Wash -2.81 in game 2. That line is probally around a PK or Atlanta a small fav, because they trail in the series and need to win it may get shaded to Atlanta.
Many times when a team covers they will cover my line as well, meaning Chicago could cover my line of -11.85, it would not surprise me to see that.
I see the lines are out on covers, looks like they shaded the lines to both teams that won game 1.
Both are -1.5, I would back LA with that line, a 4.54 difference from my line.
We'll see how these lines close, hopefully the public jumps on the over-reaction train.
That seems to me an over-reaction to the first game.
I would be taking some action on Minny later tonight, first I want to see if the line will drop.
I see the lines are out on covers, looks like they shaded the lines to both teams that won game 1.
Both are -1.5, I would back LA with that line, a 4.54 difference from my line.
We'll see how these lines close, hopefully the public jumps on the over-reaction train.
That seems to me an over-reaction to the first game.
I would be taking some action on Minny later tonight, first I want to see if the line will drop.
Son of a gun, Indy played way to good, however I will still stand with the Sky to come-back and win the series, and will back them in game 2.
I did go 2-1 ATS but lost my biggest bet on Chicago.
In game 2's my best bet would be LA +1.5, I will side will LA coming back to win the series.
My line is LA -3.04, a 4.54 difference in the line .
I will pass on the Wash game since I have a small play on them to win the series no sense betting that again and laying pts to boot.
Son of a gun, Indy played way to good, however I will still stand with the Sky to come-back and win the series, and will back them in game 2.
I did go 2-1 ATS but lost my biggest bet on Chicago.
In game 2's my best bet would be LA +1.5, I will side will LA coming back to win the series.
My line is LA -3.04, a 4.54 difference in the line .
I will pass on the Wash game since I have a small play on them to win the series no sense betting that again and laying pts to boot.
LA is back in the series, with the game 2 win I'm 3-1 ATS.
I'd expect LA to win game 3 but will pass on the game.
In todays action...........................my lines are..................
Sky -5.85 a huge 8.35 diff from actual line.
Lynx - 10.29
I'm coming large on the Sky again, with a possible small play on the Lynx, would be nice if the line drops.
Best of Luck ..........................................................
LA is back in the series, with the game 2 win I'm 3-1 ATS.
I'd expect LA to win game 3 but will pass on the game.
In todays action...........................my lines are..................
Sky -5.85 a huge 8.35 diff from actual line.
Lynx - 10.29
I'm coming large on the Sky again, with a possible small play on the Lynx, would be nice if the line drops.
Best of Luck ..........................................................
Geez Louise, Indy continues to kick my arss, getting healthy they are playing far better than their stats would suggest.
Hopefully I'll get the last laugh.
Didn't do well the 1st round, hopefully I can bounce back for a big round 2.
My lines...................................
Lynx -11.71
Atlanta -5.62
I'll definately take action with the Lynx, and possible small action with Atlanta.
Geez Louise, Indy continues to kick my arss, getting healthy they are playing far better than their stats would suggest.
Hopefully I'll get the last laugh.
Didn't do well the 1st round, hopefully I can bounce back for a big round 2.
My lines...................................
Lynx -11.71
Atlanta -5.62
I'll definately take action with the Lynx, and possible small action with Atlanta.
Take that Indy, 2-0 ATS in game 1's and I did hit with the 49ers last thursday night for a nice night.
All my plays are in the contest on the site.
The 2-0 in game 1 puts my record at 5-4 ATS in the WNBA playoffs thus far.
I did research my lines in last years playoffs and 2.5 diff between my line and the closing line seems to be a good point.
2012 it went 5-2 ATS and 2010 it went 3-2 ATS, could not find my stats for 2011.
This season with a 2.5 diff, 1-3 ATS in 1st round but bounced back thus far in 2cd round to go 2-0, so 3-3 thus far with 2 plays in todays games.
MY LINES.............................
Lynx - 5.71
Indy -.38
As long as the Lynx line stays at -3 or less we have a play.
I'll take some small action on both of these plays and am very confident I'll get at least 1 of these if they both stay at a 2.5 diff or better with a possiblity to get both.
Because the Lynx lost in last years final I think they'll be super motivated to end this in 2 games and hope Indy wins and have a dog fight in the other series.
MY LINES IN FINAL.....................
Lynx - 14.19 over Atlanta
Lynx - 16.81 over Indy
WOW those look like crazy lines I know but hey, this based on the regular seaon, I'll run the numbers based on the playoffs and see the diff.
Good Luck gents, enjoy todays action.......................................
Take that Indy, 2-0 ATS in game 1's and I did hit with the 49ers last thursday night for a nice night.
All my plays are in the contest on the site.
The 2-0 in game 1 puts my record at 5-4 ATS in the WNBA playoffs thus far.
I did research my lines in last years playoffs and 2.5 diff between my line and the closing line seems to be a good point.
2012 it went 5-2 ATS and 2010 it went 3-2 ATS, could not find my stats for 2011.
This season with a 2.5 diff, 1-3 ATS in 1st round but bounced back thus far in 2cd round to go 2-0, so 3-3 thus far with 2 plays in todays games.
MY LINES.............................
Lynx - 5.71
Indy -.38
As long as the Lynx line stays at -3 or less we have a play.
I'll take some small action on both of these plays and am very confident I'll get at least 1 of these if they both stay at a 2.5 diff or better with a possiblity to get both.
Because the Lynx lost in last years final I think they'll be super motivated to end this in 2 games and hope Indy wins and have a dog fight in the other series.
MY LINES IN FINAL.....................
Lynx - 14.19 over Atlanta
Lynx - 16.81 over Indy
WOW those look like crazy lines I know but hey, this based on the regular seaon, I'll run the numbers based on the playoffs and see the diff.
Good Luck gents, enjoy todays action.......................................
1-0 ATS in today's action with a win on Atlanta .
The Lynx spread went up to 3.5, I passed on that game.
6-4 ATS in playoffs. and 4-3 ATS with a 2.5 diff between my line and closing line.
I did bounce back strong after a horrible 1st round.
1-0 ATS in today's action with a win on Atlanta .
The Lynx spread went up to 3.5, I passed on that game.
6-4 ATS in playoffs. and 4-3 ATS with a 2.5 diff between my line and closing line.
I did bounce back strong after a horrible 1st round.
WNBA Finals...................................my line........................
Lynx -14.19 over Atlanta
Based on playoffs only...................................
Lynx -11.29
If we give equal wieght to regular season and playoffs..................................
Lynx - 12.74
Power ratings................................
Lynx - 57.54
Dream - 50.65
That's a huge 6.89 diff between these 2 teams, rarely will a team lose in the final with such a huge advantage has Minny has here.
The Lynx are clearly playing far better than Atlanta this entire season , they were upset in last years final and should be very excited to be back here to avenge that huge dissappointment.
I would look for the Lynx to possibly sweep, I would not give Atlanta more than 1 game at best.
playoff record - 6-4 ATS
I would be very surprised if the Lynx don't cover at least 1 of the 1st 2 at home, it's a big number but I'll ride the Lynx with a small play in game 1 if it loses I'll up my play on the Lynx in game 2.
Good Luck everyone and enjoy the finals........................................
WNBA Finals...................................my line........................
Lynx -14.19 over Atlanta
Based on playoffs only...................................
Lynx -11.29
If we give equal wieght to regular season and playoffs..................................
Lynx - 12.74
Power ratings................................
Lynx - 57.54
Dream - 50.65
That's a huge 6.89 diff between these 2 teams, rarely will a team lose in the final with such a huge advantage has Minny has here.
The Lynx are clearly playing far better than Atlanta this entire season , they were upset in last years final and should be very excited to be back here to avenge that huge dissappointment.
I would look for the Lynx to possibly sweep, I would not give Atlanta more than 1 game at best.
playoff record - 6-4 ATS
I would be very surprised if the Lynx don't cover at least 1 of the 1st 2 at home, it's a big number but I'll ride the Lynx with a small play in game 1 if it loses I'll up my play on the Lynx in game 2.
Good Luck everyone and enjoy the finals........................................
Weak statistical teams Like Indy don't win back to back titles or even get to back to back finals , in any sport I follow.
When you see teams that get to and/or win multiple titles they are very strong statistical teams Like the Lynx.
Indy did beat Chicago which was a big surprise to me but that's all she wrote for Indy getting sweept in the next round.
Something to think about going forward, ................................
Weak statistical teams Like Indy don't win back to back titles or even get to back to back finals , in any sport I follow.
When you see teams that get to and/or win multiple titles they are very strong statistical teams Like the Lynx.
Indy did beat Chicago which was a big surprise to me but that's all she wrote for Indy getting sweept in the next round.
Something to think about going forward, ................................
Lynx did what they needed in game 1 with a big blow-out. Pretty sure they were happy to get off on a good start after last years dissappointment losing the series.
7-4 ATS in playoffs and my lines with a 2.5 diff goes to 5-3 ATS.
I never like backing teams coming off big blow-out wins, and that's especially true here as the Lynx have blow-out wins in 2 of last 3 games after beating Phoniex by 23 in game 1.
I won't back the Lynx here in game 2, may throw a small play on the Dream especially if the line gets driven higher, Atlanta could be in this game with a chance to win SU.................................................
Lynx did what they needed in game 1 with a big blow-out. Pretty sure they were happy to get off on a good start after last years dissappointment losing the series.
7-4 ATS in playoffs and my lines with a 2.5 diff goes to 5-3 ATS.
I never like backing teams coming off big blow-out wins, and that's especially true here as the Lynx have blow-out wins in 2 of last 3 games after beating Phoniex by 23 in game 1.
I won't back the Lynx here in game 2, may throw a small play on the Dream especially if the line gets driven higher, Atlanta could be in this game with a chance to win SU.................................................
Lynx roll big again in game 2, it looks like they are playing with a big chip on their shoulders after last years dissappointing loss in the final.
I'd still be very careful backing teams off big wins and in this case a series of big wins. History has a way of coming around and repeating itself.
My lines did win again with a 2.5 diif with the closing line and my regular season line. That's now 6-3 ATS in the playoffs and on a 5-0 run after a 1-3 ATS in the 1st round.
I quess I should of listened to my lines.
My line in game 3.......................Lynx -8.19
Not likely to be a 2.5 diff here in game3, maybe a better game to fade the Lynx ATS after blow-out wins.
You could also make a case for the Dream getting desperation points to adjust the line, I do that in the NBA with teams down 0-2 and back at home and it works well, but I have no history of that in the WNBA.
In the NBA I adjust the line by 4 pts, that makes Lynx -4.19 and we would need -7 or better to have a 2.5 diff between my adjusted line and the closing line.
Based on the adjusted line the game 3 line looks inflated.
If the line continues to rise I'll make a small play on the Dream.
Lynx roll big again in game 2, it looks like they are playing with a big chip on their shoulders after last years dissappointing loss in the final.
I'd still be very careful backing teams off big wins and in this case a series of big wins. History has a way of coming around and repeating itself.
My lines did win again with a 2.5 diif with the closing line and my regular season line. That's now 6-3 ATS in the playoffs and on a 5-0 run after a 1-3 ATS in the 1st round.
I quess I should of listened to my lines.
My line in game 3.......................Lynx -8.19
Not likely to be a 2.5 diff here in game3, maybe a better game to fade the Lynx ATS after blow-out wins.
You could also make a case for the Dream getting desperation points to adjust the line, I do that in the NBA with teams down 0-2 and back at home and it works well, but I have no history of that in the WNBA.
In the NBA I adjust the line by 4 pts, that makes Lynx -4.19 and we would need -7 or better to have a 2.5 diff between my adjusted line and the closing line.
Based on the adjusted line the game 3 line looks inflated.
If the line continues to rise I'll make a small play on the Dream.
Atlanta missed that last 3 for a cover on the closing line, I suspect the Lynx because losing in last years final just were not letting up in this series, regardless I still don't like backing teams off big wins.
Not bad overall, I did hit a best bet play on the Lynx to win the title and came out with a small winning record ATS.
I did look back at some other years and found my line works pretty well with a 2.5 difference so next year I be better prepared to know how to use my lines.
I'll try and look into teams off big wins and be better prepared with that.
I've now called 3 of the past 4 champs prior to the start of the playoffs here on the site, hopefully I can do it again next season, .....................untill then gents...............................best of luck................................
Atlanta missed that last 3 for a cover on the closing line, I suspect the Lynx because losing in last years final just were not letting up in this series, regardless I still don't like backing teams off big wins.
Not bad overall, I did hit a best bet play on the Lynx to win the title and came out with a small winning record ATS.
I did look back at some other years and found my line works pretty well with a 2.5 difference so next year I be better prepared to know how to use my lines.
I'll try and look into teams off big wins and be better prepared with that.
I've now called 3 of the past 4 champs prior to the start of the playoffs here on the site, hopefully I can do it again next season, .....................untill then gents...............................best of luck................................
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