Decided I would make a season thread to keep track of picks, 1-0 currently after the Rio Ave ML pick 2 days ago, see previous thread.
Just as an insight to my thought process. I will bet almost anything as long as the juice isnt crazy high or the payout is significant enough. To me it doesnt matter what the juice is if the pick is correct. I also dont have a rhyme or reason for betting a percentage of my bankroll etc. So sometimes i get burnt and look completely dumb and sometimes I may look like a genius. I just make bets on things i believe will happen based on my research. A continuing trend youll probably see a lot this early week is me picking heavy home favorites vs bad teams as i see good teams looking to get off to a good start.
Season 1-0
Todays Picks
Benfica - ML
They beat Braga 3-1 at home and 0-1 on the road. they also only gave up 6 goals last season at home, and 18 total in liga play last season. Im also a firm believer in getting off to a good start in league play so i see them winning this one fairly easily today, score guess 2-0 or 2-1 giving up a soft goal possibly.
Off the record pick because the juice is way too high.
FC Porto -700
Porto gave up 9 home goals last year out of 19 total. Again,home favorite looking to start off right. They won 2-1 away and 1-0 at home. similar score to the Benfica game 2-1 or 2-0 correct score pick.
Overall this league is super top heavy with benfica and porto running away with the league. these 2 teams are usually good bets to win more often than not.
Decided I would make a season thread to keep track of picks, 1-0 currently after the Rio Ave ML pick 2 days ago, see previous thread.
Just as an insight to my thought process. I will bet almost anything as long as the juice isnt crazy high or the payout is significant enough. To me it doesnt matter what the juice is if the pick is correct. I also dont have a rhyme or reason for betting a percentage of my bankroll etc. So sometimes i get burnt and look completely dumb and sometimes I may look like a genius. I just make bets on things i believe will happen based on my research. A continuing trend youll probably see a lot this early week is me picking heavy home favorites vs bad teams as i see good teams looking to get off to a good start.
Season 1-0
Todays Picks
Benfica - ML
They beat Braga 3-1 at home and 0-1 on the road. they also only gave up 6 goals last season at home, and 18 total in liga play last season. Im also a firm believer in getting off to a good start in league play so i see them winning this one fairly easily today, score guess 2-0 or 2-1 giving up a soft goal possibly.
Off the record pick because the juice is way too high.
FC Porto -700
Porto gave up 9 home goals last year out of 19 total. Again,home favorite looking to start off right. They won 2-1 away and 1-0 at home. similar score to the Benfica game 2-1 or 2-0 correct score pick.
Overall this league is super top heavy with benfica and porto running away with the league. these 2 teams are usually good bets to win more often than not.
the portuguese league has treated me well so far...
FRIDAYS PICKS 8/11
NICE ML - I like one of the top teams of last year to continue winning ways. they didnt show me much admittedly last week but i think with a second division team coming up to the big leagues as well as sneijder coming over to niece they will prevail here at home...
LYON ML - I really liked what i saw from Lyon last week, although they beat up on a team who was in the second division last year. They dont usually lose to rennes who plays better at home than away and is also known for drawing teams. they led the league in draws last year. Im going to ride the hot hand here in Lyon in a close one i think Lyon edges Rennes by 1 goal in the second half.
Off the record pick
Arsenal ML - Arsenal has a horrible track record starting the year which breaks my rule right now, they also have some of their bigger names out. but i think this is the year they break the trend and despite having important players out they come away with a win vs just an overally less impressive leicester city squad who will be over matched. I think the gunners can take the momentum off the chelsea win in a somewhat meaningless game and win another close one 2-1 or 2-0
the portuguese league has treated me well so far...
FRIDAYS PICKS 8/11
NICE ML - I like one of the top teams of last year to continue winning ways. they didnt show me much admittedly last week but i think with a second division team coming up to the big leagues as well as sneijder coming over to niece they will prevail here at home...
LYON ML - I really liked what i saw from Lyon last week, although they beat up on a team who was in the second division last year. They dont usually lose to rennes who plays better at home than away and is also known for drawing teams. they led the league in draws last year. Im going to ride the hot hand here in Lyon in a close one i think Lyon edges Rennes by 1 goal in the second half.
Off the record pick
Arsenal ML - Arsenal has a horrible track record starting the year which breaks my rule right now, they also have some of their bigger names out. but i think this is the year they break the trend and despite having important players out they come away with a win vs just an overally less impressive leicester city squad who will be over matched. I think the gunners can take the momentum off the chelsea win in a somewhat meaningless game and win another close one 2-1 or 2-0
Yea kinda one on that in my write up and it's their home opener, but just looking back at direct matches Lyon doesn't lose to Rennes often, probably a better DNB pick overall but I think Lyon overall has the firepower to get them by 1
Yea kinda one on that in my write up and it's their home opener, but just looking back at direct matches Lyon doesn't lose to Rennes often, probably a better DNB pick overall but I think Lyon overall has the firepower to get them by 1
just confused about one thing, you said that the Benfica wager was "off" the record due to the juice being too high, but the Porto wager was okay, although it was twice the juice of the Benfica one?
just confused about one thing, you said that the Benfica wager was "off" the record due to the juice being too high, but the Porto wager was okay, although it was twice the juice of the Benfica one?
RY good to luck to you this weekend. just confused about one thing, you said that the Benfica wager was "off" the record due to the juice being too high, but the Porto wager was okay, although it was twice the juice of the Benfica one?
RY good to luck to you this weekend. just confused about one thing, you said that the Benfica wager was "off" the record due to the juice being too high, but the Porto wager was okay, although it was twice the juice of the Benfica one?
Stupidly picked Arsenal -1 shoulda picked the ML oh well its better than a loss. Nice... I don't even know what to say aside from the fact they really need to 1. Play with more urgency 2. And get the injured or new guys out there asap. They came out so flat and seemed to be playing to not lose. Incredible job and hats off to Troyes for trying to actually win the game. Lyon did as expected. Was on the road at Rennes a tough opponent but in the end the better team won.
Season total 3-1-1 happy to still be on the + side
Stupidly picked Arsenal -1 shoulda picked the ML oh well its better than a loss. Nice... I don't even know what to say aside from the fact they really need to 1. Play with more urgency 2. And get the injured or new guys out there asap. They came out so flat and seemed to be playing to not lose. Incredible job and hats off to Troyes for trying to actually win the game. Lyon did as expected. Was on the road at Rennes a tough opponent but in the end the better team won.
Season total 3-1-1 happy to still be on the + side
Celtic ML, stronger side here at home, looking to get off to a good start, i also see a low scoring game, the under looks promising
Napoli -1, Nice has looked terrible in the french league, until balotelli, and the dutchman get on the pitch this team is an easy fade for me till they show some kind of heart, urgency, show me something...
Barca ML, I love messi and company to even the score with madrid today,I think they will be aggressive pressing the attack trying to even up and over take madrid on aggregate. this will also leave lots of openings for madrid on the opposite side to catch at least one goal. I really like betting barca when their backs are against the wall especially with no CR7
Celtic ML, stronger side here at home, looking to get off to a good start, i also see a low scoring game, the under looks promising
Napoli -1, Nice has looked terrible in the french league, until balotelli, and the dutchman get on the pitch this team is an easy fade for me till they show some kind of heart, urgency, show me something...
Barca ML, I love messi and company to even the score with madrid today,I think they will be aggressive pressing the attack trying to even up and over take madrid on aggregate. this will also leave lots of openings for madrid on the opposite side to catch at least one goal. I really like betting barca when their backs are against the wall especially with no CR7
2-2 yesterday, wow this barca squad... really thought that over had a chance. 2 really good misses by suarez and messi in the second have could have easily put that game over. either way... maybe its no barca is that bad its the face real madrid is just on a whole other level, ascensio is playing lights out right now!!!
2-2 yesterday, wow this barca squad... really thought that over had a chance. 2 really good misses by suarez and messi in the second have could have easily put that game over. either way... maybe its no barca is that bad its the face real madrid is just on a whole other level, ascensio is playing lights out right now!!!
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