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@dubz4dummyz Maye in my opinion. Here’s why: when you look at improvement of a Teams overall off from the 2nd week of the cfb season to the 13th week ultimately Nc was ranked 3rd a major jump for Maye and the total off. Williams will go first but the off. for usc didn’t improve was 9 to begin with was 9th the 13th week. History has shown improvement for total off is a key stat to consider. Purdy was 103 ended at 40 - improvement is what you want to see for the total off . IMHO. |
Mitchieboi | 49 |
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@insatiable Oh yeah ….. I think they can get it done |
TheBuddah | 8 |
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@insatiable Thanks bud @skoonr3 no problem bud . We hit the fh let’s get the game !!!!! |
TheBuddah | 8 |
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replied to
***Macwesties * Mon. Apr. 08, 2024 * NCAAB * Championship Final * College Basketball Play***
in College Basketball @Macwestie1 Let’s get it !!!!! |
Macwestie1 | 41 |
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Correction Purdue is ranked 2 by Kenpom |
TheBuddah | 8 |
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Final game of the season - basically we got 1 against 2. Let's look at some numbers:
Purdue 2 2 42% def -5 Con 1 10 41%
Conn opened up at -5 currently around 6.5-7 . Conn is ranked #1 by kenpom and has a schedule strength of 10. Meanwhile, Purdue has a rank of 1 and sched strength of 2. Shooting percentage def. Conn is better by 1 percentage point. All these numbers are road data since the games are played on a neutral court. What does all this mean nothing until you compare it to previous games with an opening line of -5 for the bottom team and similar numbers. The only game similar was when Kansas played Vill back in 2018 - Vill crsd both f/h and game. I'm taking Conn -3.5 F/h and the game - 6.5 .
Good luck all
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TheBuddah | 8 |
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@Brooklyncapper BOL bud |
Brooklyncapper | 12 |
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@Macwestie1 I'm with ya bud. Have a great season |
Macwestie1 | 7 |
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Adding: 6.Tex -120 7. Houst -129 8. Sea -1 -105
Once again good luck all. |
TheBuddah | 5 |
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@Brooklyncapper
@Jarrett75 Thanks guys and back at ya |
TheBuddah | 5 |
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We went 2-3 yesterday record stands at 6-5 still on the plus side money wise. Let's look at some numbers: -130 Clev Bibee 42 Oak Sears 28
Line opened for Clev at 130 currently around -124. Using my rating system last year I gave Bibee a rating of 42 and Sears 28, typically lower the better on paper. In the spring - Sears had more stikeouts than innings pitched and a better ERA. Since it is the first game - it's the numbers I use to evaluate along with the opening lines. I think Oak takes them today. My Plays: 1. Oak +114 2. Tor +116 3. KC +106 4. Pit-106 5. Balt -1 -125
Haven't gotten to the evening games - if I have anything i'll let you know. Good luck all.
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TheBuddah | 5 |
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@Xdoge Thanks bud and back at ya. |
TheBuddah | 4 |
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@Brooklyncapper BOL to ya bud |
Brooklyncapper | 21 |
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@Xdoge BOL to ya |
Xdoge | 2 |
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We had a good opening day went 4-2. Let's look at some numbers: Tor Bassitt 19 105 Tam Civale 45
Line opened up at -105 for TB (madduxsports.com) currently -117. Based on last year ratings - I have Bassitt at 19 and Civale at 45 - when you have a line of 105 which is not typical - my data indicates TB should get them today. My plays for today:
1. TB -117 2. Mia -124 3. Mets -108 4. SF +136 5. Bos +133
Good luck all |
TheBuddah | 4 |
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@golfing123
@lopez021130 Thanks guys . Hoping Detroit could have pushed another one over - I guess it was cold and everyone wanted to get it over with:) . Sea the line dropped not sure why - i'll take it. |
TheBuddah | 8 |
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@Justasquirrel The Reds game i'd be careful - in the first week of the season you don't have much to go on except spring data; Gray has more strikeouts than I.p a great sign for a pitcher. When the home team pitcher is favored but does not have more strikeouts than I.p - often the away team takes it. I think the Reds can still take it but i'd becareful or avoid. I like Toronto in the jays/rays game. Different reasons but either way BOL to ya
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Justasquirrel | 7 |
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@CMo256
@Trinitiyy
@Brooklyncapper Thanks guys and back at ya. |
TheBuddah | 8 |
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@bellsbendboy Prior to the Internet -my analysis was simply doing the opposite of most people did - basically watch the line and do accordingly. With Gore creating the internet:) I started looking at data, then learning and collecting data that i beleive was important to the cause and effect of whether a team covers or not. It became an evolutionary process of what I looked at exactly. I can say having rationale for why your taking team A vice Team B gives you a higher level of confidence in your picks. It is a constant process improvement, it takes a lot of effort and time. I'm like you I want to know the thought process behind a posters pick, thus why I post my rationale whenever I post because it's hard to ask others to post their reasons if you don't do it yourself. Your post sounds like your angry - I would simply chill as it can affect your well being. I would say Covers provides some good stat info. but there are other websites out there - statfox.com for home and away data for CBB is important especially with March Madness as the play on neutral courts. If your post encourages anyone to provide their rationale - I think you have made a difference but don't get angry over it - not worth it. BOL luck to you and all.
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bellsbendboy | 27 |
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As many of you have stated MLB Opening day is special. My wife says its because you simply love to bet it - yes she is right. Love betting baseball - best sport to bet in my opinion. I look at baseball as 4 seasons: The first week; before trade dead line, after trade dead line and playoffs. I track it accordingly. This being the first week, I look at pitching data from last year if a pitcher has record and spring numbers and opening lines and follow history. Let's look at some numbers:
Bos Bello 109 -168 Sea Castillo 10
I use madduxsports.com for opening lines which are coming from Bookmaker. The line opened at 168 currently around the same. When you have these lines that end in something different than 0 or 5 i track those games separately. Bello has a rating of 109 a composite of a variety of pitcher stats and Castillo 10 typically lower the better on paper. These ratings are from last year. For the first week i find it's worth using. In addition, I look at spring numbers. Castillo had 22 s/o in 18.1 i.p where Bello had 18/18.1 . I do a comparison to the ratings as well as previous years spring numbers to find similar games and results. Find patterns and bet accordingly.
My plays: 1. Sea -1.5 +127 2. NYY +137 3. Det -1.5 -108 4. Clev -1.5 +112 5. Tor +120 6. Cincy -1 -111
Everyone have a great season and good luck all.
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TheBuddah | 8 |
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