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Recapping yesterday:
AQ 1: winner AQ 4: winner AQ 6: out AQ 8: winner and fourth AQ 9: winner, place and out ---------------------------------------------- CD 4: out, winner CD 5: winner, out, out, fourth, out CD 7: winner, out CD 9: winner, place, scratch
Hope you did as well, if not better. |
TheBlackKnight | 2 |
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Here is the official field for the 150th Run For The Roses, better known as the Kentucky Derby, with their morning-line odds. 1. Dornoch, 20/1 2. Sierra Leon, 3/1 3. Mystik Dan, 20/1 4. Catching Freedom, 8/1 5. Catalytic, 30/1 6. Just Steel, 20/1 7. Honor Marie, 20/1 8. Just a Touch, 10/1 9. Encino, 20/1 10. TO Password, 30/1 11. Forever Young, 10/1 12. Track Phantom, 20/1 13. West Saratoga, 50/1 14. Endlessly, 30/1 15. Domestic Product, 30/1 16. Grand Mo the First, 50/1 17. Fierceness, 5/2* 18. Stronghold, 20/1 19. Resilience, 20/1 20. Society Man, 50/1 AE 21, Epic Ride, 50/1 AE 22, Mugato, 50/1 * after 5/2, Fierceness, represents the morning-line favorite The scratch deadline for Epic Ride and Mugato to draw into the field is Friday, May 3rd at 9:00am. If any of the 1-20 field scratches after that, 04.04.24 at 9:00:01am or later, they will not be entered. Epic Ride draws in on the first scratch, Mugato on the second. Mugato could draw in first but only if Epic Ride scratches before the deadline and another did as well. The 150th Derby is scheduled for race 12 (of 14) at 6:57pm Saturday, May 4, 2024. |
TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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AQ1: 2
AQ 4: 1 AQ 6: 2 AQ 8: 1 and 9 AQ 9: 4, 6 and 10
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CD 5: 1, 2, 5, 6 and 7 CD 7: 2, 3 and 4 CD 9: 5, 6 and 9
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Choice(s) based upon how each track is playing, the observations during the post parade, types of wagers starting those particular races, etc. If nothing else, it provides a (hopefully) starting point.
AQ changes are in, races adjusted - any further for that/those races changes the body of the race.
CD changes are not in at this point.
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TheBlackKnight | 2 |
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Saturday, April 27th 2024, post positions for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby will be drawn live between the third and fourth races at Churchill Downs. |
TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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As one can see, some jockeys are listed multiple times (only because they were the last known jockey from the last race) and they'll have to make a decision as to which mount they'll ride.
Statistical data came from this years Media Guide. I presume it to be accurate. |
TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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30 points Hades . Trainer: Joseph F. Orseno, 1-0-0-0 30 points, Uncle Heavy 30 points, El Grande O
Above the line are the top twenty that I know of, hopefully I didn't omit anyone. Below the line would be those on the AE list. |
TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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50 points, Society Man 46 points, Mystik Dan 40 points, Encino 40 points, TO Password 40 points, Grand Mo the First ============================== 37 points, Common Defense 35 points, Epic Ride |
TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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75 points, Dornoch 75 points, Just a Touch 70 points, Track Phantom 67 points, West Saratoga 65 points, Just Steel 65 points, Honor Marie 50 points, Catalytic |
TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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April 24, 2024 With all the Kentucky Derby point prep races completed, here is the field as I know it, along with some additional information: 155 points, Sierra Leon 136 points, Fierceness 125 points, Catching Freedom 125 points, Stronghold 110 points, Resilience 100 points, Forever Young (JPN)
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TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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Here's something I've found helpful/useful when trying to identify the winner. Give extra credence to those who hit the board in My Key Prep races. My Key Prep races are defined as those Kentucky Derby Point Prep races that have produced multiple Kentucky Derby winners. For example, the Florida Derby has provided 7 of the last 20 Kentucky Derby winners - it's just one additional piece of information that I find useful when building my tickets.
Keep adding your comments/ideas/thoughts/questions, I read them all, and while I'm no "expert" despite my young age I have a decent/good amount of knowledge about this sport but there are certain things I don't know or haven't/can't do. For example, while I can shoe a horse and understand how to make quality shoes, I've yet to make a full set, let alone a pair or one, that I'd be comfortable putting on any racehorse - "pleasure horse", not an issue but I know I still need to put in more time to become successful at that task.
Time for a light breakfast and off to the barn. |
TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vetdrm:
@Midnight1 Yeah, they sure tried hard enough even going to another level to try and get him in.Wish he would’ve made it only because he would’ve brought the odds down somewhat with the other legit contenders. I hope Encino makes it in.
To me, it clearly look like Encino has enough points to be in the race and if he doesn't get ill or injured would give Brad Cox three in the race (as of today/right now). |
TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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April 22, 2024 With all the Kentucky Derby point prep races completed, here is the field as I know it, along with some additional information: 155 points, Sierra Leon 136 points, Fierceness 125 points, Catching Freedom 125 points, Stronghold 110 points, Resilience 100 points, Forever Young (JPN) 100 points, Endlessly 75 points, Dornoch 75 points, Just a Touch 70 points, Track Phantom 67 points, West Saratoga 65 points, Just Steel 65 points, Honor Marie 60 points, Domestic Product 50 points, Catalytic 50 points, Society Man 46 points, Mystik Dan 40 points, Encino 40 points, TO Password 40 points, Grand Mo the First ============================== 37 points, Common Defense 35 points, Epic Ride 30 points, Hades 30 points, Uncle Heavy 30 points, El Grande O
Above the line are the top twenty that I know of, hopefully I didn't omit anyone. Below the line would be those on the AE list.
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TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Midnight1:
Muth is a "no go" in the Derby. I'm glad that part of the discussion/issue has been resolved.
Quote Originally Posted by Midnight1:
@vetdrm Baffert has Muth headed to the Preakness. I think Baffert may win either the Preakness or the Belmont (it'at Saratoga this year because of construction @ Big Sandy) & thumb his nose @ Churchill. Saratoga will be open June 6th to the 9th. Should be a hell of weekend! Muth having the extra time off would benefit him for the Preakness (fresh shooter angle) but it's no guarantee he'd win it or the Belmont. The fear I have for whomever wins the Kentucky Derby and, for the sake of discussion, the Preakness, let's say that horse wins the Belmont. How will history and people react/treat the horse and connections since it wasn't the "normal acceptable" race (distance and track). A three day meet, gotta love it ... beats Tampa Bay Downs two day summer event. |
TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Mskeets:
I have not paid much attention… again this year… but I did see Sierra Leon ..? Run his last race…. And it was a perfect way to run derby in my opinion…. I will be keying him in most my plays.
Take a look at post #4, it has information you might find helpful/useful about him. |
TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Midnight1:
By the end of this week, we should know whether a lawsuit filed by owner Amr Zedan will be successful in allowing Muth, trained by Bob Baffert, to run in this year's Kentucky Derby. He has the necessary points. Last time out on March 30th, he won the Arkansas Derby @ Oaklawn.
I can not see how it would be fair to all the other connections, who followed/played by the rules, to allow Baffert's horses enter this year's Kentucky Derby. The owner knew BB was banned/suspended from Churchill Downs but did not switch trainers back when the information was made available.
DRF has an informative article on their website. Based upon the facts listed in the article, it looks like the owner(s) realize they made a poor decision. Then again, could another trainer gotten the horse in question to perform as well in the OP Derby? By Wednesday evening, a decision should be made. Hopefully they do the right thing. |
TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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With all the Kentucky Derby point prep races completed, here is the field as I know it, along with some additional information: 155 points, Sierra Leon 136 points, Fierceness 125 points, Catching Freedom 125 points, Stronghold 110 points, Resilience 100 points, Forever Young (JPN) 100 points, Endlessly 75 points, Dornoch 75 points, Just a Touch 70 points, Track Phantom 67 points, West Saratoga 65 points, Just Steel 65 points, Honor Marie 60 points, Domestic Product 50 points, Catalytic 50 points, Deterministic 50 points, Society Man 46 points, Mystik Dan 40 points, Encino 40 points, TO Password ============================= 40 points, Grand Mo the First 37 points, Common Defense 35 points, Epic Ride 30 points, Hades 30 points, Uncle Heavy 30 points, El Grande O
Above the line are the top twenty that I know of, hopefully I didn't omit anyone. Below the line would be those on the AE list. |
TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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Quote Originally Posted by TheBlackKnight:
GP 3, #5 win, place, show
Result: 2-5-7-8 7 was the heavy favorite, so expecting a cash positive return. #5 paid $4.60 and $2.80 $7.40 - $6.00 = $1.40 per $2.00 ticket.
Hope others did as well, if not better. |
Midnight1 | 9 |
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GP 3, #5 win, place, show
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Midnight1 | 9 |
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Did you know:
The last time a trainer won the Kentucky Derby in back-to-back years was Bob Baffert (1997 with Silver Charm and 1998 with Real Quiet). Prior to that D Wayne Lukas accomplished the feat in 1995 with Thunder Fully and 1996 with Grindstone. Other than those two, from 1976 forward, no other trainer has done it. That doesn't fair/set well for last year's winning trainer.
More later, time to get headed to the barn, check on the horses, catch up with the trainer and see how things are progressing. |
TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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How about this nugget:
Last year, 2023, the combination of trainer Gustavo Delgado and jockey Javier Castellino won the Kentucky Derby. My research, going back to 1976, does not have/show any trainer and jockey winning consecutive back-to-back Kentucky Derby races. Think about that, 47 times in a row and not once (or more) gone back-to-back. |
TheBlackKnight | 28 |
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