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10-5 for week 1 ... here are the picks for week 2, still using last years numbers.
Cardinals/Jaguars Over 43 (11.8)
Vikings/Lions Over 45 (9.6) Rams/Redskins Under 37 (9) Panthers/Falcons Under 42.5 (7.6) Saints/Eagles Over 45.5 (6.7) Bucs/Bills Under 42 (6.1) Giants/Cowboys Over 45 (4.9) Colts/Dolphins Under 42 (4.6) Steelers/Bears Under 37.5 (4.6) Browns/Broncos Over 39 (4.2) Bengals/Packers Under 41.5 (3.7) Ravens/Chargers Over 40.5 (2.7) Texans/Titans Under 41 (2.5) Patriots/Jets Over 45.5 (1.9) Seahawks/49ers Under 39 (0.3) Raiders/Chiefs Over 38.5 (0.1) WTG Kyle Busch winning the truck race ... nice payday at 3 to 1
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kenyonlv | 9 |
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I kinda doubt it ... I studied hard looking for a "system" but nothing panned out. I went as far as determining when their flight arrived in a city and how many hours they had between games and just found no correlations to the efficiency. I found some interesting stuff, like indications that poor teams play better then their averages against good teams, but not so much the converse, that good teams play worse against poor teams. I very much enjoy studying the NBA and will continue, but unless I find some really good stuff I doubt I will post.
Since the end of the season I have concentrated on Nascar and have made money on all but the Nationwide series. The truck series is easy ... bet on Busch if he is racing and bet on Hornaday otherwise (works usually except last week where Crafton took out Hornaday at the end.) I'll pretty much ignore the NFL until a few weeks of stats are available.
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kenyonlv | 9 |
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8-4 so far
Hawk ... I didn't give up on the NBA system, I continued to refine it all thru the season. I got it down to being able to predict the possesions for each team to about +/- 3 so that left figuring out an efficiency for each team. There is a lot of variance in the efficiency and I was pretty much unable to correlate it to any of my measured stats. I did make money on the NBA season tho, mainly by picking a total and then getting a lot of middle opportunities at haftime ... ie over for the game and then picking the under for the 2nd half or vice versa.
sahlsa ... no real rules for the system just heavy data analysis. You would have to search the posts from last season.
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kenyonlv | 9 |
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O/U system from last season went went 81 - 61
Here are my picks using the stats from the end of last season
Me Vegas Me-Vegas Pick
SD @ OAK 66.5 43 23.5 Over SF @ ARI 65.5 46 19.5 Over NYJ @ HOU 62.3 44.5 17.8 Over CHI @ GB 63.1 46 17.1 Over STL @ SEA 55.3 40.5 14.8 Over BUF @ NE 60.9 47 13.9 Over DEN @ CIN 54.5 43 11.5 Over PHI @ CAR 53.5 43.5 10.0 Over MIN @ CLE 48.0 39 9.0 Over KC @ BAL 44.8 36.5 8.3 Over JAC @ IND 38.6 45 6.4 Under DET @ NO 54.0 48.5 5.5 Over WAS @ NYG 41.4 37 4.4 Over DAL @ TB 43.0 39 4.0 Over MIA @ ATL 41.9 43 1.1 Under Sorry, I forgot what I need to do to make it format right., but based on last years #'s I like the over in all but 2 games.
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kenyonlv | 9 |
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I need help making my O/U picks for week 1 ... where is the professor???
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kenyonlv | 9 |
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I was just giving the odds that's all, I am also aware of wagerline streaks. I did not research the lottery odds, we don't have a lottery in Nevada. 1 in 2.1 million or 1 in 14 milion is only a factor of 7 more and it pays 25 million so thanks for making my point. It is fun to dream and I enjoyed your post otherwise I would not have responded.
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SRTZEE | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by SRTZEE:
With just 7 simple 3 game parlays, and a let it ride strategy you can make it possible!!!!
DAY 1: $2.00 X 6 To 1 Odds Pays $12.00
DAY 1: $12.00 Profit + $2.00 Principal = $14.00
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DAY 2: $14.00 X 6 To 1 Odds Pays $84.00
DAY 2: $84.00 Profit + $14.00 Principal = $98.00
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DAY 3: $98.00 X 6 To 1 Odds Pays $588 Dollars
DAY 3: $588 Profit + $98 Principal = $686
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DAY 4: $686 X 6 To 1 Odds Pays $4,116 Dollars
DAY 4: $4,116 Profit + $686 Principal = $4,802
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DAY 5: $4,802 X 6 To 1 Odds Pays $28,812
DAY 5: $28,812 Profit + $4,802 Principal = $33,614
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DAY 6: $33,614 X 6 To 1 Odds Pays $201,684
DAY 6: $201,684 Profit + $33,614 Principal = $235,298
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DAY 7: $235,298 X 6 To 1 Odds Pays $1.4 MIL
DAY 7: $1.41 MIL Profit + $235,298 Principal = $1.64 MIL
Yea, Odds of 1 in 2.1 million ... No Problem! The lottery pays better, with not much higher odds. Now, if you could pick winners at a 75% rate you could lower your chances to 1 in 420, So you "should" win after 420 $2 bets. So who has $840 to risk and can pick winners at a 75% rate? Good Luck! |
SRTZEE | 20 |
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The overs have been hitting with more frequency lately ...
32-18 64% last 50 and
61-39 61% over last 100 and about 52.2% for the year.
So you may soon see you like the unders and not the overs.
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cajunbookbuster | 19 |
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Last Week 0-2 0%
Overall 81-60-2 56.6%
Playoffs 5-5 50%
Gotta hit this to reach 55% in the playoffs ...
The Pit def is twice the Phi def ... Ari gets stopped. Pit runs and milks clock.
Pit 20 Ari 17 Under 46.5
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kenyonlv | 100 |
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Red, Yes, I completly understand your point about the even/odd being the best place to start with your theory .. you are absolutely correct, it is a good place to start. I also agree that 2-7 is not sig yet. Keep plugging away and we can all see how it turns out on the even/odd thing ... it is interesting, but to me I see no difference between that and using binomial distributions to beat roulette.
I didn't mean the comment about the padded cell to be taken literally, I was just joking. I said that directed towards you somewhat, but at the same time I feel that way about myself and all the time I have spent on my NBA O/U system. It definately can become an obsession, so you just have to be careful. So I too apologize if I offended you with that comment.
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calinreddog | 47 |
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Quote Originally Posted by JoshLewis:
Unfortunately, you're wrong Kenyon. Are you aware of Law Of Averages? If you flip a coin 1000 times, you will get something close to %50-%50. It means if you had %60-70 "even" in first 100 throw, then in other 100 throw there will be more "odd". Feel free to test it. It's a paradox of math which majority people knows wrong. Numbers actually have a memory.. Hey Josh ... Do you have a degree in Physics ... ? Well I do, and I have a very strong matematical background as well. Nothing I have posted on this thread is incorrect. I Googled "law of averages" and here is the top return. "The law of averages is a lay term used to express a belief that outcomes of a random event shall "even out" within a small sample. As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle." Since it has no mathematical principle, reflects bad statistics, and is nothing but wishful thinking I don't want any part of it. If Voodoo and hocus pocus are your bag then go ahead and continue to tell me I am wrong and to provide some more bogus answers. Anyone reading this that also has an analytical mind will agree ... "Numbers have memory" is as good a laugh as the guy who posted about using numerology to make his picks. Red ... I do appreciate your mathematical knowledge and your attempt to apply it to sports betting. It is such a relief to see someone actually doing something that actually requires some thought and knowledge. All I am saying is I think you can find a better to place to apply your skills other then an even/odd bet. BTW the odds of going 2-7 as you did tonight are 36 out of 512 or 0.0703, roughly 1 in 14 ... not 1 in a million or some other number you may come up with. |
calinreddog | 47 |
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Dude if you win there is word to describe it I'll spell it for you ... L U C K.
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calinreddog | 47 |
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All I'm saying is it's been proven over and over that betting on red or black, even or odd, a coin flip or a basketball total ending in even or odd is going to lose in the long run. If going 4-2 proves the binomial distribution is the answer to this age old question then its news to the whole world. I don't seroiusly think anyone in these forums would actually consider wagering money on betting on even or odd and expect in win in the long run. As long as you post I will feel free to respond and in no way keep my mouth shut as you put it. Have fun dude, I'm all in favor of that, bet and post your results as much as you want.
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calinreddog | 47 |
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Quote Originally Posted by WiLdCaRd88:
.....Dude... If you flip a coin 10 times and its heads 10 out of 10 times.. The odds of the next coinflip being heads is still 50%.... LOL... Right on Wild Card ... here is a relavent clip ... "Roulette balls and dice simply have no memory. Every spin in roulette and every toss in craps is independent of all past events. In the short run you can fool yourself into thinking a betting system works, by risking a lot to win a little. However, in the long run no betting system can withstand the test of time." Now tell me Red Dog how an even or odd score in a basketball game is dependent on past events? Betting on the coin flip once a year on the Super Bowl is fun, but to think you can beat the house at it is purely insane. Oh by the way ... the chances of you losing 6 out of 6 50/50 outcomes is 1 in 64 its found in any elementary school math book. Have fun while you are still free, because soon they will come and put you in a comfy padded cell. |
calinreddog | 47 |
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Opps, meant to write Boston/Miami UNDER 187 *** |
kenyonlv | 33 |
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Forget the above picks ... I made two changes and ranked them in the order I like the best with 5 rated plays.
Boston/Miami Over (line) ***
Washington/Sacramento Under 210 *** Toronto/Detroit Under 180 *** Utah/Houston Under 194 *** New Jersey/New Orleans Under 188.5 *** Memphis/Charlotte Over 176.5 Dallas/Milwaukee Over 203 LA Lakers/LA Clippers Under 203 Phoenix/New York Over 220 Cleveland/Portland Under 184.5 Oklahoma City/Golden State Under 223.5 |
kenyonlv | 33 |
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I still haven't had the time to do what I intended when I started this thread, that is track various systems, but hopefully soon I can get started on that. I've been busy updating my main system ... lets see how it does for tomorrow. Memphis/Charlotte Over 176.5 |
kenyonlv | 33 |
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I'll be interested to see how you do or what backtesting produces. Kinda curious as to why you didn't start this thread in Sys & Strat, it would be easier for me to follow there. BOL
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yellowsnow51 | 12 |
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Last Week 2-2 50%
Overall 81-58-2 57.4%
Playoffs 5-3 62.5%
For only the sixth time in history we will have a "Bird Team" in the Super Bowl. Only once has a bird team won, SB 35 Ravens 34 Giants 7. Ravens are only bird team in the AFC. Four of the 5 bird teams made the playoffs, with a record 3 still alive. Eagles fly to Phoenix. NY Geese take down Jet(s).
Phi 14 Ari 26 Under 47
Bal 19 Pit 14 Under 34
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kenyonlv | 100 |
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Err, Oh yea I have considered that and always have an eye out for that. Problem is I have been too close to 50% except for 2 and 3 days ago when it sucked enough to consider fading everything. I'll just keep tweaking at it, I think I am getting closer. It was 2-0 yesterday on the top picks.
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kenyonlv | 33 |
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