Quote Originally Posted by cashg3:
Kangy,
I really like your tightener system but I'm having a little trouble truly understanding it. I thought that I knew what it was until you posted the Lions +7 as a play today. Could you please clarify how this was a play?
Good luck on Vikes +6 I got em too at 7
Cash, if you are familiar with the Porky system, his original system uses a 10 or more point middle to choose sides and totals. The team or total chosen is the contrarian play - the team or total causing the middle to miss.
With the +/-7 system I relax the middle stipulation, however I look only for starting 2H lines that are at least a touchdown against the spread - taking lines that are only 7 or more. Combining this with the Porky system gives me the team, in this case, the Lions....
The Colts (-17) were only leading by 11 at the half. This puts their in game ATS at -6. They only needed to win the 2H by 6 to cover. Since the line came out Colts -7, if the Colts covered the -7 for 2H, they would also cover the -17 for game. Therefore the middle would not have missed. This is the interesting thing about the modified system, the middle can miss in two directions.
The middle was only 1 in this case - that's why I cautioned to go small. The middle would miss if the Colts win the 2H by less than 6 or by more than 7. Yes, it was just as easy for the Colts to win by 8 as it was for them to win by 6 or less. However, statistically, it is easier for the dog to cover with such a small middle. Therefore we go with the Lions.
This is the reason, Porky's system uses a larger middle of 10 points. Then it becomes abundantly clearer to see which side is easier to cover. When the middle is less than 3, however, play with caution, as a FG one way or the other can tip the scales. Even though the middle can be missed, you will still lose the bet.
Now that I have muddied the waters even more, I will come up with a better way to expalin it during the off-season so I can post again next year. Now, let's win the loot.