Quote Originally Posted by Money4Nuthin:
I tend to handicap on fundamentals and personnel match ups. I give Pitt the nod on a superior pass and run game. Personnel are better.
NE gets the slight nod for QB's and coaching. A better defense. I have mulled this game over all week. It should have been a 3 point line all day and remember- Denver came in and thumped what I thought was a better team than the one on the field tomorrow.
So I am taking the points and also the m/l. It would not shock me to see Pitt win this just as it did not shock me when Denver beat NE with Gronk by two last year.
6 points is an overlay. Use your head.
Keep in mind, that last year that Broncos defense was one of the most vicious in I don't know how many years. Second point, Pats were on the road.
Honestly, I am hoping, and predicting the Pats to win, based to their obvious pedigree, history, and performance. It's that obvious. What isn't obvious is how it will play out.
So here are some simple hypothetical scenarios
1) Pats blow them out, steelers choke: -6 is an easy cover. ML is captain obvious easy cover.
2) Steelers blow out, Pats stumble: +6 & the ML covers. World is shocked, and all you Steeler fanboys go Stephen A. Smith batshit crazy.
3) Close game or Tie game: Pats are infamous for usually winning these. Steelers cover the +6, but Pats win, covering the ML.
4) Close Game Steelers edge em out, Clearing both +6 & ML...again Steeler fans go batshit.
Now sheerly using common sense.... which apparently isn't so common... Not overthinking it too much, because usually overthinking eventually can become counterpoint. Scenario 1 & 3, have a higher probability than 2 & 4...
Not to say 2 & 4 can't happen, because it can, and it could...but the odds and probability are less favorable.
I'm going to risk my money, and stick it in the more favorable & desirable situation.
If I lose, I lose, so be it, but the goal and Idea is to win...not to overthink, and kick myself during the game because of some possible moon shoot.
I play a lot of poker. You don't always win with pocket aces, even though you feel like you should.
If this is the case with New England, I will happily accept my loss.
Regardless of how much money or dignity I win/lose.
These players have a lot more riding on this game then a few hundred bucks. They have their careers, lines, and legacies riding.
So in the end, Sports betting is a life long game, until you stop betting. I'll look forward to the superbowl, and the next season.
I hate the break the obvious, but capping isn't easy. Even the experts struggle.
CBS Experts, for example...that do this garbage as a profession. 4 of them pick New England to cover, and 4 pick the Steelers to cover.
What does that tell you? This game is virtually a coinflip by the predication of even expert analysis.
However, the computer on, www.oddshark.com does have New England covering by 12.5 points. They base their predictions on mathematical statistics. Not by emotions or necessary multiple years of pedigree, but the cold hard seasonal statistics. Again, there is no guarantee that the computer generated prediction will pan out...but what is indicative, and obvious, is that the edge is in New England's favor.
I'm not saying Hero plays don't pan out, because they do. Heck even half the CBS experts are riding on the Steelers. The other half on the Pats.
Win or lose, I'm not here to satirize my opposition. Everyone is entitled to their picks. But in my right mind, I rather ride with the favorite, then to ride with the underdog and be praying to Jesus for a miracle that may not ever come.
Miracles do happen...but against New England...
That's what they are....truly a miracle.