Good Monday all! With only three games in the NBA tonight, my projected lines are in agreement with two of them, while there is one value play to be had.
PICK: Brooklyn Nets +1.5 at Phoenix Suns (rated 2 stars)
Both of these teams are pretty evenly matched, so with home-court advantage being around 8% you get an estimated win percentage for Phoenix at 58%. I actually came up with a 60% figure because of other factors, including injuries.
However, the schedule gives Brooklyn a HUGE advantage. Not only are they benefiting from two full days of rest, but they also had two more days of rest before their last game.
Meanwhile, the Suns will be playing back-to-back games, also their third game in 4 nights, and fourth in 6 nights. What a big difference! According to this information, I have multiplied the Suns’ estimated win percentage by 76% (following some statistical studies I read about the impact of rest in the NBA based on years of data), which yields a final estimate of 60% * 76% = 45.6%. In terms of point spreads that’s roughly 2 points, so my projections believe the Nets should be 2-point favorites instead of 1.5-point dogs.
Some people believe in it, while others don’t, but there is also a revenge factor. These two teams met six days ago, a game in which the Suns took it 122-114 in Brooklyn. I’m pretty sure the Nets will be looking for payback.
Brooklyn has dropped its past four straight games, including their latest two which occurred against weak teams (the Suns and the Lakers). With tough opponents up next (at Denver, at Portland and at Utah), I’m pretty sure they will give an all-out effort tonight.
Good Monday all! With only three games in the NBA tonight, my projected lines are in agreement with two of them, while there is one value play to be had.
PICK: Brooklyn Nets +1.5 at Phoenix Suns (rated 2 stars)
Both of these teams are pretty evenly matched, so with home-court advantage being around 8% you get an estimated win percentage for Phoenix at 58%. I actually came up with a 60% figure because of other factors, including injuries.
However, the schedule gives Brooklyn a HUGE advantage. Not only are they benefiting from two full days of rest, but they also had two more days of rest before their last game.
Meanwhile, the Suns will be playing back-to-back games, also their third game in 4 nights, and fourth in 6 nights. What a big difference! According to this information, I have multiplied the Suns’ estimated win percentage by 76% (following some statistical studies I read about the impact of rest in the NBA based on years of data), which yields a final estimate of 60% * 76% = 45.6%. In terms of point spreads that’s roughly 2 points, so my projections believe the Nets should be 2-point favorites instead of 1.5-point dogs.
Some people believe in it, while others don’t, but there is also a revenge factor. These two teams met six days ago, a game in which the Suns took it 122-114 in Brooklyn. I’m pretty sure the Nets will be looking for payback.
Brooklyn has dropped its past four straight games, including their latest two which occurred against weak teams (the Suns and the Lakers). With tough opponents up next (at Denver, at Portland and at Utah), I’m pretty sure they will give an all-out effort tonight.
I've got suns Celtics lions straight up tonight in a parlay. Keep it simple. Nets suck. On the road. Toss up game, I'll give it to home team which also beat the nets on the road recently. Game of runs and no defense. I'll side with suns. They're young they don't need rest :)
I've got suns Celtics lions straight up tonight in a parlay. Keep it simple. Nets suck. On the road. Toss up game, I'll give it to home team which also beat the nets on the road recently. Game of runs and no defense. I'll side with suns. They're young they don't need rest :)
What do you have on those 2? If I may ask. Just curious
Why do you need those numbers, they were more or less 1 point from the actual spreads. The Warriors were -16 and mine was like 15.4 from what I can remember, why does it matter?
What do you have on those 2? If I may ask. Just curious
Why do you need those numbers, they were more or less 1 point from the actual spreads. The Warriors were -16 and mine was like 15.4 from what I can remember, why does it matter?
Thanks for the write up. I think tired legs will show up for Phoenix tonight and we get the win
We are also observing a small reverse line move with 51% of spread bets and 64% of money line bets on Phoenix, and yet the line moved the other direction (by a little).
Thanks for the write up. I think tired legs will show up for Phoenix tonight and we get the win
We are also observing a small reverse line move with 51% of spread bets and 64% of money line bets on Phoenix, and yet the line moved the other direction (by a little).
thanks for the write ups. have not watched either team play this year. but gun to head i would go with the revenge factor alone as it has been profitable throughout the years. if it was a week ago i dont think revenge plays much of a factor, but a couple of games ago is still fresh in their mind. anyway good luck on this pick.
thanks for the write ups. have not watched either team play this year. but gun to head i would go with the revenge factor alone as it has been profitable throughout the years. if it was a week ago i dont think revenge plays much of a factor, but a couple of games ago is still fresh in their mind. anyway good luck on this pick.
thanks for the write ups. have not watched either team play this year. but gun to head i would go with the revenge factor alone as it has been profitable throughout the years. if it was a week ago i dont think revenge plays much of a factor, but a couple of games ago is still fresh in their mind. anyway good luck on this pick.
thanks for the write ups. have not watched either team play this year. but gun to head i would go with the revenge factor alone as it has been profitable throughout the years. if it was a week ago i dont think revenge plays much of a factor, but a couple of games ago is still fresh in their mind. anyway good luck on this pick.
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