$$$$ Detroit Tigers -1.5 RL $$$$
I already submitted a $$$$ play for today on the Toronto @ NYY Under 8.5 Runs but thought I would share the following play as I have hit the last 3 prop bets since Sunday. This is also posted in the NBA forum and on Bubba's page for anyone who follows! BOL
I like the angle with Green being in the spotlight after the kick situation last game that has grabbed media headlines. I think it could result in extra trips to the line tonight for him (may be a stretch). However, in addition to that angle, Draymond played his worst playoff game thus far on Sunday night posting the following stat line:
1-9 shooting, 6 pts, 4 rbs, 3 asts, 4 to's
Very poor considering the standard of play we are used to out out him. I like him to play a much more solid game tonight, he may flirt with the triple-double stat line he almost averaged following losses this season. Below are some additional supportive stats to boost this play:
2015-16 regular season averages: 14.5 ppg, 9.9 rbs, 7.7 asts (32.1)
2015-16 playoff averages: 16.6 ppg, 9.3 rbs, 6.5 asts (32.4)
2015-16 per game
averages following a loss (regular season/playoff combined): 15.5 ppg, 9.09
rbs, 8.6 asts (33.2)
I already submitted a $$$$ play for today on the Toronto @ NYY Under 8.5 Runs but thought I would share the following play as I have hit the last 3 prop bets since Sunday. This is also posted in the NBA forum and on Bubba's page for anyone who follows! BOL
I like the angle with Green being in the spotlight after the kick situation last game that has grabbed media headlines. I think it could result in extra trips to the line tonight for him (may be a stretch). However, in addition to that angle, Draymond played his worst playoff game thus far on Sunday night posting the following stat line:
1-9 shooting, 6 pts, 4 rbs, 3 asts, 4 to's
Very poor considering the standard of play we are used to out out him. I like him to play a much more solid game tonight, he may flirt with the triple-double stat line he almost averaged following losses this season. Below are some additional supportive stats to boost this play:
2015-16 regular season averages: 14.5 ppg, 9.9 rbs, 7.7 asts (32.1)
2015-16 playoff averages: 16.6 ppg, 9.3 rbs, 6.5 asts (32.4)
2015-16 per game
averages following a loss (regular season/playoff combined): 15.5 ppg, 9.09
rbs, 8.6 asts (33.2)
$$$$ PICKS: 1-0-0
TUESDAY: TENNIS - ROLAND GARROS - FRENCH OPEN - WOMEN
PUIG - GOVORTSOVA
$$$$GOVORTSOVA + 5.5$$$$ at 1.729 Pinnacle
They are 1-1 in their previous matches, both on hard, and Govortsova won pretty easily against Puig last year, while their 1st was a three set match. Puig retired last week from Strasbourg, after defeating Errani in the first round, with a left thigh injury (nothing serious I think). Govortsova is 0-3 on clay this years, but lost all 3 matches against good players, and she knows how to play on clay.
+ 5.5 seems to me pretty safe
Puig won 7-5 6-3 and my $$$$bet$$$$ on Govortsova +5.5 was a winner too, even if I expected something more by Govo... anyway, see you soon with another French Open pick, have a nice day guys.
$$$$ record: 2-0-0
$$$$ PICKS: 1-0-0
TUESDAY: TENNIS - ROLAND GARROS - FRENCH OPEN - WOMEN
PUIG - GOVORTSOVA
$$$$GOVORTSOVA + 5.5$$$$ at 1.729 Pinnacle
They are 1-1 in their previous matches, both on hard, and Govortsova won pretty easily against Puig last year, while their 1st was a three set match. Puig retired last week from Strasbourg, after defeating Errani in the first round, with a left thigh injury (nothing serious I think). Govortsova is 0-3 on clay this years, but lost all 3 matches against good players, and she knows how to play on clay.
+ 5.5 seems to me pretty safe
Puig won 7-5 6-3 and my $$$$bet$$$$ on Govortsova +5.5 was a winner too, even if I expected something more by Govo... anyway, see you soon with another French Open pick, have a nice day guys.
$$$$ record: 2-0-0
I’ve been aggressively going at the spread and the over/under to try to see if there’s enough edge to warrant a $$$$ pick, but unfortunately I see this game as too much of a coin flip. There’s just too many independent variables at play to see anything that makes sense.
For a long while it’s been pretty much established that when the warriors play their best game, they are better than any team in the league. We’ve also known that when the thunder play their best game, they can beat anyone in the league. OKC won game 3 all by themselves (they scored 45 in the 3rd). GS didn’t play all that terribly offensively, but somehow Klay Thompson’s defense was embodied by Dion Waiters who posted a ridiculous +32. OKC is still at home and clearly playing their best basketball, the question mark is whether they take good shots and whether they drop. If GS is dropping 3’s like candy, they can still beat OKC at it’s best, but that’s a big IF given Steph’s been injured all playoffs (elbow swelling most recently).
Key Stats and Observations
I actually think GS needs to hit 3’s early to stretch OKC’s defense. Otherwise they just don’t have the size and talent to match up with OKC’s big. Enes Kanter posted a double-double when Steven Adams got kicked in the nuts and Andre Roberson posted a +33. GS had 14 less rebounds, 18 less points in the paint and were blocked 8 times. That reads “total domination in the paint”. We even saw Steve Kerr opt for bigger lineups, but OKC was playing out of their minds by the 2nd quarter and carried it through the third.
I don’t expect Serge Ibaka and Dion Waiters to repeat their +42 and +32 performances, but I have a legitimate concern regarding the defense of Andre Iguodala who pretty much won the finals last year for the team by dominating Lebron James, he has to do the same thing to Durant. I also don’t think Klay Thompson can play his best defense if he has to facilitate the offense while Curry is out of rhythm. I don’t know if the warriors can depend on their defense, the team looks tired and Curry just isn’t himself right now.
So at this point, you’re probably thinking “Take OKC” but don’t forget how emotional of a team they are. They fed on that for game 1 in OKC and they will try to do it again, but often they get carried away and the turnover floodgates are opened. There were points in the first quarter where OKC’s offense didn’t look extremely functional and was aided by the poor defensive play of the dubs. Though they’re playing extremely well, OKC is no less predictable or consistent in terms of offensive efficiency than they were all season, they just got a lot better looks in game 3.
I agree with Eternal, watch how GS is playing to begin the game, are they getting good looks? Are they playing aggressive defense and crashing the boards with small lineups? Is OKC taking advantage of their transition opportunities efficiently? Is the OKC bench playing well or is Dion waiters making stupid fouls as usual and is Enes Kanter overwhelmed? Is Serge Ibaka transforming into “Surge I-block-ya”. Enjoy the game for it’s entertainment value, and maybe take a small play on a live line if you’re feeling the groove.
I’ve been aggressively going at the spread and the over/under to try to see if there’s enough edge to warrant a $$$$ pick, but unfortunately I see this game as too much of a coin flip. There’s just too many independent variables at play to see anything that makes sense.
For a long while it’s been pretty much established that when the warriors play their best game, they are better than any team in the league. We’ve also known that when the thunder play their best game, they can beat anyone in the league. OKC won game 3 all by themselves (they scored 45 in the 3rd). GS didn’t play all that terribly offensively, but somehow Klay Thompson’s defense was embodied by Dion Waiters who posted a ridiculous +32. OKC is still at home and clearly playing their best basketball, the question mark is whether they take good shots and whether they drop. If GS is dropping 3’s like candy, they can still beat OKC at it’s best, but that’s a big IF given Steph’s been injured all playoffs (elbow swelling most recently).
Key Stats and Observations
I actually think GS needs to hit 3’s early to stretch OKC’s defense. Otherwise they just don’t have the size and talent to match up with OKC’s big. Enes Kanter posted a double-double when Steven Adams got kicked in the nuts and Andre Roberson posted a +33. GS had 14 less rebounds, 18 less points in the paint and were blocked 8 times. That reads “total domination in the paint”. We even saw Steve Kerr opt for bigger lineups, but OKC was playing out of their minds by the 2nd quarter and carried it through the third.
I don’t expect Serge Ibaka and Dion Waiters to repeat their +42 and +32 performances, but I have a legitimate concern regarding the defense of Andre Iguodala who pretty much won the finals last year for the team by dominating Lebron James, he has to do the same thing to Durant. I also don’t think Klay Thompson can play his best defense if he has to facilitate the offense while Curry is out of rhythm. I don’t know if the warriors can depend on their defense, the team looks tired and Curry just isn’t himself right now.
So at this point, you’re probably thinking “Take OKC” but don’t forget how emotional of a team they are. They fed on that for game 1 in OKC and they will try to do it again, but often they get carried away and the turnover floodgates are opened. There were points in the first quarter where OKC’s offense didn’t look extremely functional and was aided by the poor defensive play of the dubs. Though they’re playing extremely well, OKC is no less predictable or consistent in terms of offensive efficiency than they were all season, they just got a lot better looks in game 3.
I agree with Eternal, watch how GS is playing to begin the game, are they getting good looks? Are they playing aggressive defense and crashing the boards with small lineups? Is OKC taking advantage of their transition opportunities efficiently? Is the OKC bench playing well or is Dion waiters making stupid fouls as usual and is Enes Kanter overwhelmed? Is Serge Ibaka transforming into “Surge I-block-ya”. Enjoy the game for it’s entertainment value, and maybe take a small play on a live line if you’re feeling the groove.
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