Yesterday: 3-0 +$2695
Blue Jays RL-1.5 +102 ($1000 to win $1020) Blue Jays ML -160 ($1000 to win $625) Pirates ML +105 ($1000 to win $1050)
YTD 16-8 +$12,366.99
Return on Risk: 35.13%
Today:
Cubs ML -106 ($1000 to win $943.40)
Blue Jays RL-1.5 -104 ($1000 to win $961.54)
Diamondbacks ML -128 ($1000 to win $781.25)
Royals ML -126 ($1000 to win $793.65)
Phillies ML +150 ($1000 to win $1500)
Analysis:
Cubs ML -106 ($1000 to win $943.40)
I just read on ESPN's Twitter feed that Cubs with Kyle Schwarber in starting lineup: 17-8, 5.1 Runs PG, .755 OPS Without him: 48-40, 3.7 Runs PG, .680 OPS. Today, they'll get to have his bat in the lineup as the DH in an interleague game against the White Sox. In addition, the Cubs have a pitching advantage today, as Hendricks has had a 2.92 ERA in July and August, compared to Samardzija's 4.84 ERA in that timeframe. On July 10, Hendricks faced these White Sox and gave up no runs and no walks, and just 5 hits in 7 innings. That's enough for me to ride the Cubs amazing streak, where they have now won 13 of their last 14 games.
Blue Jays RL-1.5 -104 ($1000 to win $961.54)
This Blue Jays RL streak, where the RL-1.5 has hit in 10 of the last 11 games, is not going to continue forever. But why bet the other way when something is hitting 91% of the time? So what if you lose today? It's no big deal because if you have been on the Blue Jays RL as I have, they have already made you a ton of money, and I'll take one loss if I have already generated 3 wins. I much prefer that rather than trying to guess which day this streak will end and either laying off or betting the other way. More likely than not, the streak continues based on their performance. Despite all this rhetoric, the Blue Jays are clear favorites here. Price has allowed 1 run in 15 innings in a Blue Jays uniform, including 7 innings against the Yankees in his last start where he allowed 0 runs and just 3 hits and 3 walks. That game was also a h2h matchup against Nova, who pitched into the 6th inning without giving up a run, but then gave up two homers, yielding 4 runs. We all know how hot the Blue Jays bats have been, and until yesterday, how cold the Yankees bats have been. All signs indicate that Blue Jays should win, the only question is if they'll win by 2 or more. I'm riding the Blue Jays again today, and if they lose? So what. Thank you for still cashing in for me the past few days!
Diamondbacks ML -128 ($1000 to win $781.25)
The Braves might be the worst hitting team against left in the League, posting a .333/.631 SLG/OPS split. Today, they will face a decent Southpaw in Robbie Ray who after having a solid start of the season, has had a pedestrian 4.16 ERA in July and August. On the other hill, we get a right-hander in Julio Teheran, who has posted a 3.82 ERA in that timeframe. Both pitchers have good strikeout stuff, however, Teheran's WHIP of 1.37 compared to Ray's 1.17 indicates that Teheran can get into some trouble. I much prefer the consistency Ray provides and that fact that the Braves have to hit left vs. the Dbacks who hit right at .414/.740. Slight advantage in pitching and huge advantage in bats for the Dbacks.
Royals ML -126 ($1000 to win $793.65)
In his second start of the season, Weaver faced the Royals and gave up 6 runs in 4.1 innings. This is Weaver's second start since coming back from the DL with a hip injury and guess what? He gets to face the Royals. It's not like Weaver was miraculously improving his game when he was on the DL. He was hurt. I really don't like how Duffy has more walks than strikeouts in July and August, but in that timeframe, he has posted a 2.77 ERA and the Royals have won 6 out of the 7 games that he has started. The only loss came against the hot hitting Blue Jays. In addition, Duffy throws with his left arm, and Angels are hitting .368/.672 against left, compared to Royals .416/.736 against right. I see a clear pitching advantage and hitting advantage here, and that is enough for me to back the Royals at home.
Phillies ML +150 ($1000 to win $1500)
This might be my favorite play on the board tonight. Phillies are sporting a top 10 offense since the all-star break and the Brewers have had a bottom 5 offense since the break. Adam Morgan has been decent, with a 3.97 ERA over the last month compared to Wily Peralta, with an ugly 6.15 ERA in three starts over the last month. Brewers are hitting .365/.642 against left this year which is atrocious. The Phillies are 17-7 since the break and the Brewers are 10-16. This line is a joke and a complete overreaction to the Phillies overall record and apparent HFA. Brewers are false favorites.
BOL