5 Inning YTD: 23-34-9, -1,004.23
9 Inning YTD: 26-19, +1,209.58
Reds F5 +122, FG +123 (Latos / Morton)
Well, here I go again backing
a couple guys I have had scant praise for in the past. I still don’t, and never
will, have a great deal of respect for Dusty Baker, but now and then he gets a
little lucky, stays out of the way of his players and they get the job done for
him. That brings me to Homer Bailey, another guy I have picked on in the past
and made a few bucks going against. But, just to prove what a promiscuous and
non discriminatory sob I really am, here is the true scoop. Every player and
manager on the MLB level is going to have his day. Regardless of what you read
on the Covers posting forum boards, these people did not get there because they
were lucky, and they are not the incompetent jerks (or worse) they are accused
of being. There is only one way to reach MLB status and it is by a long war of
attrition in the hot and dusty summers between the ages of 8 and 20 years old.
Hard work and outperforming increasingly better and better talent year after
year is what got them there, not by being born lucky and inheriting Daddy’s
company and-or money, which is how I suspect a lot of the forum geniuses got
the necessary sustenance and support to spend their time here criticizing
people they are not qualified to judge.
So, well, anyway, the Brewers
could be headed for a disastrous season with their DL filling up faster than a
plugged toilet and no real relief in sight. That opens the door for the Reds and
Homer Bailey, neither of whom has looked especially bad lately, so I have to
let up on them a little in the role of the underdog and point out (again) that
backing a dog on the road is usually better than laying the wood with that same
pitcher-offense combination at home. Only the public’s love of home teams
creates the difference in odds and performance levels needed to justify the
juice and they normally aren’t there. So far this year, and pretty typical for
any year, home teams are 223-211 for a whopping home team advantage of 51.38%. Also,
averages in MLB tend to gravitate back toward the norm, not to be sustained.
You don’t think you can reasonably expect the Dodgers to go 69-12 at home and
41-40 on the road do you? Can you realistically expect the Royals to go 11-70
at home and 44-37 on the road? Get real people, those numbers will gravitate
back toward 50% sooner than you think. Reds on the road at 7-7 and the Brewers
at home 6-7 are already so close to 50% it is insignificant and meaningless.
Pay all the juice you want to for “home field advantage” but don’t ask me to do
the same. MLB bettors and to a lesser extent NFL and NBA bettors need to get
out of the college frame of mind, where home field or home court advantage is
much more significant, but they can’t and they won’t and, God Bless Them, I
have to love it. Road favorites and dogs both receive a cash bonus in the line
for being on the road and it really doesn’t make much difference.
Got that shit off my chest (for about the 5th time in 5 seasons here) so let’s get into the “better team” thing. The better team is perceived (or worse, locked into the bettors mind) as a result of two things. Prior history and current standings. That’s it, that’s all. Current standings and season end standings may justify that, but that is not the problem or reality we face TODAY. The power of an MLB team changes daily, dependent on several factors, most important of which is, “who are they giving the ball to?”. No sane person can contend that the Yankees are the Yankees, with the same power ranking, and win potential, whether they give the ball to Sabathia or Garcia. That, in a nutshell, is how false favorites are created and go out and lose games the public just can’t believe they lost. I am tired of this and noone is paying attention anyway. I just got bored and let my fingers run wild. Sorry about that.
BOL
All plays are a flat 100 units. Lines are current at Best Available American Online Book as I post
5 Inning YTD: 23-34-9, -1,004.23
9 Inning YTD: 26-19, +1,209.58
Reds F5 +122, FG +123 (Latos / Morton)
Well, here I go again backing
a couple guys I have had scant praise for in the past. I still don’t, and never
will, have a great deal of respect for Dusty Baker, but now and then he gets a
little lucky, stays out of the way of his players and they get the job done for
him. That brings me to Homer Bailey, another guy I have picked on in the past
and made a few bucks going against. But, just to prove what a promiscuous and
non discriminatory sob I really am, here is the true scoop. Every player and
manager on the MLB level is going to have his day. Regardless of what you read
on the Covers posting forum boards, these people did not get there because they
were lucky, and they are not the incompetent jerks (or worse) they are accused
of being. There is only one way to reach MLB status and it is by a long war of
attrition in the hot and dusty summers between the ages of 8 and 20 years old.
Hard work and outperforming increasingly better and better talent year after
year is what got them there, not by being born lucky and inheriting Daddy’s
company and-or money, which is how I suspect a lot of the forum geniuses got
the necessary sustenance and support to spend their time here criticizing
people they are not qualified to judge.
So, well, anyway, the Brewers
could be headed for a disastrous season with their DL filling up faster than a
plugged toilet and no real relief in sight. That opens the door for the Reds and
Homer Bailey, neither of whom has looked especially bad lately, so I have to
let up on them a little in the role of the underdog and point out (again) that
backing a dog on the road is usually better than laying the wood with that same
pitcher-offense combination at home. Only the public’s love of home teams
creates the difference in odds and performance levels needed to justify the
juice and they normally aren’t there. So far this year, and pretty typical for
any year, home teams are 223-211 for a whopping home team advantage of 51.38%. Also,
averages in MLB tend to gravitate back toward the norm, not to be sustained.
You don’t think you can reasonably expect the Dodgers to go 69-12 at home and
41-40 on the road do you? Can you realistically expect the Royals to go 11-70
at home and 44-37 on the road? Get real people, those numbers will gravitate
back toward 50% sooner than you think. Reds on the road at 7-7 and the Brewers
at home 6-7 are already so close to 50% it is insignificant and meaningless.
Pay all the juice you want to for “home field advantage” but don’t ask me to do
the same. MLB bettors and to a lesser extent NFL and NBA bettors need to get
out of the college frame of mind, where home field or home court advantage is
much more significant, but they can’t and they won’t and, God Bless Them, I
have to love it. Road favorites and dogs both receive a cash bonus in the line
for being on the road and it really doesn’t make much difference.
Got that shit off my chest (for about the 5th time in 5 seasons here) so let’s get into the “better team” thing. The better team is perceived (or worse, locked into the bettors mind) as a result of two things. Prior history and current standings. That’s it, that’s all. Current standings and season end standings may justify that, but that is not the problem or reality we face TODAY. The power of an MLB team changes daily, dependent on several factors, most important of which is, “who are they giving the ball to?”. No sane person can contend that the Yankees are the Yankees, with the same power ranking, and win potential, whether they give the ball to Sabathia or Garcia. That, in a nutshell, is how false favorites are created and go out and lose games the public just can’t believe they lost. I am tired of this and noone is paying attention anyway. I just got bored and let my fingers run wild. Sorry about that.
BOL
All plays are a flat 100 units. Lines are current at Best Available American Online Book as I post
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