I think if he is favored it will be because he has earned the respect with consistent improvement. I see no reason for regression when hitters have all sunk to the lowest possible point. Hitters are giving away strikeouts by the bushel bsket and no one is talking about a cure, like contact swinging instead of "jacking" the ball. Unless a pitcher is at the end of his career and obviously regressing there is no good reason to think he will be any less successful than last year. I don't speculate a lot on how people will suddenly break out or regress, I let their numbers do the talking and rate it for what it is worth. If I express an opinion it has prior performance behind it, not guesswork. Lynn was 19-14 last year in head to head competition versus the opposing starter and turned in a 23-10 quality start record. That is my opnion of him, very dangerous to fade.
His numbers were solid, but the 2.74 ERA was lower than in should have been, in my opinion. With a 1.26 WHIP, he left a lot of runners on base, which will even out his ERA at some point. In 2013, he had a 1.31 WHIP and a 3.97 ERA and more strikeouts, which should lessen the ERA when you have a WHIP that high. He also only gave up 1 more home run in 2013 than 2014. You're right, strikeouts have inflated immsenly in the past few years, but that isn't what's causing Lynn's (too) good ERA. It's the fact that he left a lot of runners on base, and I doubt he'll be that lucky 2 seasons in a row. Looking at it from the other side, maybe the hitters had an inflated BABIP, which would even out this season and keep his ERA the same and WHIP lower. We'll see. Either way, if he repeats last year in the baserunners allowed department, his ERA is gonna be back up, and run support can only get you so far.
I think if he is favored it will be because he has earned the respect with consistent improvement. I see no reason for regression when hitters have all sunk to the lowest possible point. Hitters are giving away strikeouts by the bushel bsket and no one is talking about a cure, like contact swinging instead of "jacking" the ball. Unless a pitcher is at the end of his career and obviously regressing there is no good reason to think he will be any less successful than last year. I don't speculate a lot on how people will suddenly break out or regress, I let their numbers do the talking and rate it for what it is worth. If I express an opinion it has prior performance behind it, not guesswork. Lynn was 19-14 last year in head to head competition versus the opposing starter and turned in a 23-10 quality start record. That is my opnion of him, very dangerous to fade.
His numbers were solid, but the 2.74 ERA was lower than in should have been, in my opinion. With a 1.26 WHIP, he left a lot of runners on base, which will even out his ERA at some point. In 2013, he had a 1.31 WHIP and a 3.97 ERA and more strikeouts, which should lessen the ERA when you have a WHIP that high. He also only gave up 1 more home run in 2013 than 2014. You're right, strikeouts have inflated immsenly in the past few years, but that isn't what's causing Lynn's (too) good ERA. It's the fact that he left a lot of runners on base, and I doubt he'll be that lucky 2 seasons in a row. Looking at it from the other side, maybe the hitters had an inflated BABIP, which would even out this season and keep his ERA the same and WHIP lower. We'll see. Either way, if he repeats last year in the baserunners allowed department, his ERA is gonna be back up, and run support can only get you so far.
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