Solid performance here last week (6-4-1, .600), though hardly enough to move the needle on the season (58-65-2, .472). It’s a tough game, with my rote system liking these this week:
1) Washington(-9)/Utah
2) Georgia(-10.5)/Mississippi
3) BoiseSt(-24.5)/NewMexico
4) JamesMadison(-24.5)/Connecticut
5) Oregon(-15)/USC
6) Hawaii(+19)/AirForce
7) CentralFlorida(+2.5)/OklahomaSt
8) LA-Monroe(+21.5)/Troy
9) Auburn(+3)/Arkansas
10) Rutgers(+2)/Iowa
11) Cincinnati(+2.5)/Houston
12) Wyoming(+3)/UNLV L
13) IowaSt(-6.5)/BrighamYoung
14) Arizona(-10)/Colorado
15) Texas(-10)/TCU
For the record, there has been some 2023 rank-value in the top five (.551, 27-22-1).
You may recall, some weeks ago I did an overview on SpreadMargin (SM); a quantitative measure of how efficiently the line is being set. SM being how much a team covers, or fails to cover. Of course, the line is originally set by an algorithm the line maker applies – then subsequently adjusted by our input ($).
I formerly shared that my 2013-22 database (6114 games) had a SM mean of 12.3 (Std Dev 9.6). If you will, those 12.3 points represent the level of predictability the line maker achieved over those nine years. Is s/he getting better? Well, the SM mean for this season (534 games) is 11.7 points (Std Dev 8.5).
So, The Man has produced a line stronger than before (by 5%, 1 - [11.7/12.3]), and his comparably reduced-variation complements that. Should we be worried? Maybe, but how do we truly know? We can safely assume he’s using Artificial Intelligence (AI), and that next year -- he’ll be even more effective. That, in itself, is ominous; not good for cappers.
Without venturing too deep into the weeds, I share the concept of applying the Two-Sample t-Test. We have means from two (2) populations; 12.3 & 11.7. Are those populations statistically/significantly different? My personal t-Test application says they ARE NOT; therein we accept the null hypothesis using a 0.05 significance level (two-tail p-value = 0.154). Therefore, mathematically, here in Nov/2023, it seems we have nothing to worry about…….
Okay then. I hope the above wasn’t too boring (one person’s tech propensity in this small corner of the forum). A very robust 64 on the board this week, so once again -- ample opportunity for all of us.
Good luck,
TheKingfish