Zero value-added from this quarter last week (2-5, .286). Same with my full-season overall (37-42, .468); not good. Putting stock in the long season that remains (8 weeks), the box sees these as gold-dust for today: 1) Mississippi(-11)/Arkansas 2) BallState(+2.5)/EasternMich 3) Tulsa(+3.5)/FloridaAtlantic 4) BostonCollege(+3.5)/Army 5) TexasSt(+2.5)/LA-Lafayette
Some rank-value performance has reared its head though. The top four selections have gone .600 (12-8) thus far.
Okay, here comes the boring tech segment. Two weeks ago, I offered the concept of SpreadMargin (SM); an alternate method for judging competitiveness. SM being how much a team covers, or fails to cover. At that time, I shared that my 2013-22 database (6114 games) had a SM mean of 12.3 (Std Dev 9.6).
Anecdotally (having dutifully recorded all the scores and final lines this year), it felt like oddsmakers have been somewhat more competitive. That is, the line is tighter; a better predictor of outcome. That would not be good news for cappers.
So, I did a quick comparison of the former (2013-22) versus 2023. Thus far this year we have a SM mean of 10.7 (Std Dev 7.5). Albeit, that’s a micro (264 games). However, on its face, there is the suggestion that something negative might be afoot. The Man has begun to produce a line stronger than before (by 13%, 1 - [10.7/12.3]), and his internal variation complements that. Might that be the result of his utilizing AI? And is that worrisome for short-pants cappers like me, and maybe you?
It's food for thought. A statistical method (t-distribution) can be used to test a hypothesis about the difference between the means of two normal distributions; when the variances are roughly equal. Plus, there are some available tweaks on that method. After compiling a few more weeks of data, I will revisit that analytical thought. Stay tuned.
Each season has a schedule opportunity-lull in early October, and this year is no exception – just 49 on the board this week. Considerably less than the last three weeks. Good luck, TheKingfish
Zero value-added from this quarter last week (2-5, .286). Same with my full-season overall (37-42, .468); not good. Putting stock in the long season that remains (8 weeks), the box sees these as gold-dust for today: 1) Mississippi(-11)/Arkansas 2) BallState(+2.5)/EasternMich 3) Tulsa(+3.5)/FloridaAtlantic 4) BostonCollege(+3.5)/Army 5) TexasSt(+2.5)/LA-Lafayette
Some rank-value performance has reared its head though. The top four selections have gone .600 (12-8) thus far.
Okay, here comes the boring tech segment. Two weeks ago, I offered the concept of SpreadMargin (SM); an alternate method for judging competitiveness. SM being how much a team covers, or fails to cover. At that time, I shared that my 2013-22 database (6114 games) had a SM mean of 12.3 (Std Dev 9.6).
Anecdotally (having dutifully recorded all the scores and final lines this year), it felt like oddsmakers have been somewhat more competitive. That is, the line is tighter; a better predictor of outcome. That would not be good news for cappers.
So, I did a quick comparison of the former (2013-22) versus 2023. Thus far this year we have a SM mean of 10.7 (Std Dev 7.5). Albeit, that’s a micro (264 games). However, on its face, there is the suggestion that something negative might be afoot. The Man has begun to produce a line stronger than before (by 13%, 1 - [10.7/12.3]), and his internal variation complements that. Might that be the result of his utilizing AI? And is that worrisome for short-pants cappers like me, and maybe you?
It's food for thought. A statistical method (t-distribution) can be used to test a hypothesis about the difference between the means of two normal distributions; when the variances are roughly equal. Plus, there are some available tweaks on that method. After compiling a few more weeks of data, I will revisit that analytical thought. Stay tuned.
Each season has a schedule opportunity-lull in early October, and this year is no exception – just 49 on the board this week. Considerably less than the last three weeks. Good luck, TheKingfish
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