this is one of my top 3 post plays NW -5.5 - LonghornHoosier - Week 1, along with Alabama -18.5 and Oklahoma State -12.5...
I have heard the argument that Dykes has superior athletes. I actually did a 2010-2013 comparison from scout.com. I don't have it in front me Basically neither team had a 5 star during that period, Cal had 24 4 Stars and NW had 4 4 Stars. Finally, Cal had 59 3 stars to NW 61. Thus, NW has a talent advantage from a pure recruiting ranking perspective However, that does not always translate into good football or wins.
In my opinion, as a amateur capper like of you, one should know and be able to justify their picks from all angles. I am trying really hard to find a reason not to go with NW. Yes, I did post it has a premium play (3) along with (7) regular plays. And I plan to formally make the wager in the next few days.
I characterize this NW team as a BCS Smart School Boise State (from 5-6 years ago. They have a good HC in Fitz who has made this team his life's work. NW has two long term and experienced coordinators. They have an overachieving spirit di corps. They have good athletes that play over their heads, but they play well as a team. They have a few NFL caliber players including RB V Mark and maybe a few others. But, most of these smarts guys will be on to grad school. Some think they could challenge tOSU for the Big 10 Title.
I was very impressed with how Miss St handled a good SEC team (mid tier) in Miss St. That team ended 9-4 and they have SEC caliber athletes on that team. In fact, two of their DB's were picked in the first two rounds of the NFL draft, and Miss St had 3 3 year starting WR's and an experienced Tight End. In addition, QB Russell is very respectable. I encourage all of you to go to Youtube and watch part of that game. NW dominated the game. They won by only 14, but they made the plays.
I have heard that Fitz will get his team out to the Bay Area early to adjust to the time difference for a late game. Sure, the stadium will be rocking, but NW faced that before. Steele has NW ranked 32 in his consolidated power ratings and cal at 68. In his plus/minus, he has NW by 14. But, it is hard to estimate how muh more motivated Cal will be in this game.
Cal will start a true freshman early enrollee from Marin Catholic. He supposedly grasped Dykes system in the spring, but I am not sold. I think NW plays an aggressive D, and if with Cal losing its top 2 back and top 2 WR's, when he gets blasted a few times for a sack, he may get the deer in the headlights.
Like I mentioned, I compare this NW team to Boise. They run a methodical Offense, focused on the mobility of their QBs. If he try to stack the box, they will zip out 15 and 20 yard passes Neither NW QB is NFL caliber, but these guys seems to find a way to win.
Cal does have speed (with Bigelow) and their WR's. NW had a problem closing out games last year. I think Dykes is going to bombs away on them, utilizing his La Tech model of outscoring his opponents. However, I think in week 1, with all the inexperience, and the rebuilt O Line, against an intelligent well coached, highly disciplined, and methodical NW team, the visitor should be able to pull out a win and a cover.
NW -6
I invite anyone and everyone with a perspective to try to talk me out of this pick...Thanks in advance...