Quote Originally Posted by HammersSpreads:
I follow the Gators very closely (2nd only to OU), and while they should win by plenty, I think it's kinda useless to bet the game.
1st what LongHorn said....if you watch their spring game (& i put very little stock into spring games), then you can see how good the offense looked. Roper was the right hire & a very needed hire. Last year I was critical of Driskel preseason & was a "wait & see" mentality, but this year preseason I am confident in thinking he will have a big year finally. The offense is perfect for him.
2nd to what BA & WiseGuy were saying.....I have ZERO interest in betting this game. I honestly dont see a point to it....and if you're worried about getting Florida while the line has value early in the season, dont be....if you like Florida this year, then dont worry bc there will be plenty of value later in the season when they get to tougher opponents.
Florida could very easily cover...and a big reason is bc Idaho will struggle to get even a TD against them. But i dont see why to bet the game when even though they could be fired up & want to blow them out, they could also not give a crap bc they know Idaho sucks. We also havent seen Driskel play in this system so who knows if he goes out there & turns the ball over like he has before. Of course, I am also a guy that very rarely, if ever, bets a game with a big spread.
While I do think that (barring crazy injuries like last year), that the Gators will be very good this year and probably better than most people think, I'd hold off.....there are 50 games a week, which means there are plenty to select from & plenty of value out there. It's all just my opinion of course, and nobody is right or wrong until after the game is played.
I like your objective presentation.
However with regard to your perspective, "they could also not give a crap bc they know Idaho sucks", I will be very surprised (no shocked) if Florida, a Muschamp coached Florida team shows any figment of apathy in this game against the Vandals. I could maybe see a small let down in week 2 against E Michigan (as bad as if not worse than Idaho) after a 56 to 3 slaughter of Idaho, with Kentucky on deck (BTW UF can covered against Kentucky the last five years in a row) but not in week 1, not with their fans giving them a whole offseason of grief, with Muschamp's butt on the line this season, no way, no how they come out flat against Idaho.
The only way I see this not being a UF cover the forecasted 33 point spread would be if there are still problems with the offense, or if a key player like Driskell get's injured prior to or during the game. Then all bet's are off.
Florida is a proud program with a warrior as its coach. He will ask his D for a shutout against a bad team (well, since he does not care about the spread, he will ask for a dominating performance) which I believe means either 0 points at best or 3 at worst. He will ask his offense to execute their offense. You how good that UF O looked in the spring game against either the 1st or 2nd team Florida Defense (all elite players and coached well). What are they going to do against a D, that has only been able to recruit 2 3 star players in the last four years (remainder are 2 star or non-rated). They are going to execute methodically, to given themselves, and their fans hope that Florida is back.
If you do indeed follow Florida closely, and you believe that the offense will hum, the D will dominate and Idaho sucks all around, what specifically have you heard coming out of the Florida program that there would be any apathy by this Florida team in week 1? And if you indeed have heard no definitive reason to think that the Gators would not want to come into the SWAMP ready to destroy Idaho or anyone they played, based on your otherwise positive perspective, why wouldn't back Florida in this matchup with Idaho? Everything that you have said above, sparing your belief that there may be apathy by the Gators because Idaho sucks, supports a colossal beat down of the Vandals in week 1.
Thanks in advance.