A cover just seems so unthinkable. Goat's awesome post makes it seem even more so.
Jags I may actually end up on UVA here. Here's how I like to look at games. The spread shows team A is X amount better than team B. It's very very hard to beat the number by saying "I disagree, I think team A is 10 points better, not 8 points". I (as many others do too) prefer to look at what is not included in the line, which generally falls into 2 categories, the specific stylistic matchup of a game and the situational spot. I've seen you talk about both of these and that's why I always like to read your stuff. I do think the Guy thing I mentioned is important to the handicap and making it difficult for me to fall in love with UVA tonight. More on the style part of the matchup - I'm typically not worried about UVA against strong offensive rebounding teams because how well they rebound defensively, but UNC is historically good on the glass. One reason this is so important is because UVA's grind it out style relies heavily on not giving the other team second opportunities. UNC is just so dominant on the glass, this has to be a concern. UNC's offensive rebounding does fall of slightly on the road, but surprisingly UVA's defensive rebounding has been slightly better at home - nothing drastic in the home/road split so not factoring that in much. At first glance, the situation heavily favors UVA IMO. First, there seems to be value in the line, factoring in home court, this line is about 3.5 - 4.5 points different than the first meeting (-6 in UNC, say 5-6 point difference in home court because you need to count it twice, that would suggest tonight's line should be about UNC -1 or PK). The question then becomes, is this difference warranted? Or asked another way, was UVA really playing that much higher than their true selves earlier in the year and are more like the team we've seen lately? A lot of people seem to think the latter is more accurate. More on the situation, UNC has a huge lead on the conference, so they could be over comfortable tonight. On the flip side, they can clinch tonight, which some people point to as a motivating factor. Also, UNC has a big rivalry game coming up against Duke so they could be looking ahead. But, like we've said on here a lot of times before, the team also needs to be taken into account when considering the look ahead spot. Most teams, I would love to fade in this spot, but UNC is clearly feels like they have some unfinished business after losing the championship last year and is very motivated to get back. Ultimately a very tough cap, but if it hits +4, I may have a small play on UVA. If I find out more info on Guy and it seems like he'll be a bigger part of the game plan tonight, the over is worth a thought. BOL tonight.
A cover just seems so unthinkable. Goat's awesome post makes it seem even more so.
Jags I may actually end up on UVA here. Here's how I like to look at games. The spread shows team A is X amount better than team B. It's very very hard to beat the number by saying "I disagree, I think team A is 10 points better, not 8 points". I (as many others do too) prefer to look at what is not included in the line, which generally falls into 2 categories, the specific stylistic matchup of a game and the situational spot. I've seen you talk about both of these and that's why I always like to read your stuff. I do think the Guy thing I mentioned is important to the handicap and making it difficult for me to fall in love with UVA tonight. More on the style part of the matchup - I'm typically not worried about UVA against strong offensive rebounding teams because how well they rebound defensively, but UNC is historically good on the glass. One reason this is so important is because UVA's grind it out style relies heavily on not giving the other team second opportunities. UNC is just so dominant on the glass, this has to be a concern. UNC's offensive rebounding does fall of slightly on the road, but surprisingly UVA's defensive rebounding has been slightly better at home - nothing drastic in the home/road split so not factoring that in much. At first glance, the situation heavily favors UVA IMO. First, there seems to be value in the line, factoring in home court, this line is about 3.5 - 4.5 points different than the first meeting (-6 in UNC, say 5-6 point difference in home court because you need to count it twice, that would suggest tonight's line should be about UNC -1 or PK). The question then becomes, is this difference warranted? Or asked another way, was UVA really playing that much higher than their true selves earlier in the year and are more like the team we've seen lately? A lot of people seem to think the latter is more accurate. More on the situation, UNC has a huge lead on the conference, so they could be over comfortable tonight. On the flip side, they can clinch tonight, which some people point to as a motivating factor. Also, UNC has a big rivalry game coming up against Duke so they could be looking ahead. But, like we've said on here a lot of times before, the team also needs to be taken into account when considering the look ahead spot. Most teams, I would love to fade in this spot, but UNC is clearly feels like they have some unfinished business after losing the championship last year and is very motivated to get back. Ultimately a very tough cap, but if it hits +4, I may have a small play on UVA. If I find out more info on Guy and it seems like he'll be a bigger part of the game plan tonight, the over is worth a thought. BOL tonight.
UVA shot 28% from the field which included 10% from 3 in the last game. And most were open shots. Just clank city. If they find their groove again, the game is theirs for the taking.
agreed. People that look solely (mistakenly) at previous game's final results could easily get burned on UNC tonight. A huge question about the shooting though is how much Bennett can afford to have Guy's lack of defense and rebounding on the court against a team like UNC.
UVA shot 28% from the field which included 10% from 3 in the last game. And most were open shots. Just clank city. If they find their groove again, the game is theirs for the taking.
agreed. People that look solely (mistakenly) at previous game's final results could easily get burned on UNC tonight. A huge question about the shooting though is how much Bennett can afford to have Guy's lack of defense and rebounding on the court against a team like UNC.
UVA won't be able to score enough points to keep up with UNC...the line seems fishy to some, but hey let's just be real UNC is the better team across the board...Heels by 6
“The fix is always in you just have to be on the right side”
UVA won't be able to score enough points to keep up with UNC...the line seems fishy to some, but hey let's just be real UNC is the better team across the board...Heels by 6
UVA won't be able to score enough points to keep up with UNC...the line seems fishy to some, but hey let's just be real UNC is the better team across the board...Heels by 6
Except for the fact that Virginia is the number 1 most efficient defense in the country and UNC isn't in the top 20.
UVA won't be able to score enough points to keep up with UNC...the line seems fishy to some, but hey let's just be real UNC is the better team across the board...Heels by 6
Except for the fact that Virginia is the number 1 most efficient defense in the country and UNC isn't in the top 20.
Jags I may actually end up on UVA here. Here's how I like to look at games. The spread shows team A is X amount better than team B. It's very very hard to beat the number by saying "I disagree, I think team A is 10 points better, not 8 points". I (as many others do too) prefer to look at what is not included in the line, which generally falls into 2 categories, the specific stylistic matchup of a game and the situational spot. I've seen you talk about both of these and that's why I always like to read your stuff. I do think the Guy thing I mentioned is important to the handicap and making it difficult for me to fall in love with UVA tonight. More on the style part of the matchup - I'm typically not worried about UVA against strong offensive rebounding teams because how well they rebound defensively, but UNC is historically good on the glass. One reason this is so important is because UVA's grind it out style relies heavily on not giving the other team second opportunities. UNC is just so dominant on the glass, this has to be a concern. UNC's offensive rebounding does fall of slightly on the road, but surprisingly UVA's defensive rebounding has been slightly better at home - nothing drastic in the home/road split so not factoring that in much. At first glance, the situation heavily favors UVA IMO. First, there seems to be value in the line, factoring in home court, this line is about 3.5 - 4.5 points different than the first meeting (-6 in UNC, say 5-6 point difference in home court because you need to count it twice, that would suggest tonight's line should be about UNC -1 or PK). The question then becomes, is this difference warranted? Or asked another way, was UVA really playing that much higher than their true selves earlier in the year and are more like the team we've seen lately? A lot of people seem to think the latter is more accurate. More on the situation, UNC has a huge lead on the conference, so they could be over comfortable tonight. On the flip side, they can clinch tonight, which some people point to as a motivating factor. Also, UNC has a big rivalry game coming up against Duke so they could be looking ahead. But, like we've said on here a lot of times before, the team also needs to be taken into account when considering the look ahead spot. Most teams, I would love to fade in this spot, but UNC is clearly feels like they have some unfinished business after losing the championship last year and is very motivated to get back. Ultimately a very tough cap, but if it hits +4, I may have a small play on UVA. If I find out more info on Guy and it seems like he'll be a bigger part of the game plan tonight, the over is worth a thought. BOL tonight.
Injury problems for Thompson and Wilkins are a major concern though. Especially Wilkins for rebounding purposes.
Jags I may actually end up on UVA here. Here's how I like to look at games. The spread shows team A is X amount better than team B. It's very very hard to beat the number by saying "I disagree, I think team A is 10 points better, not 8 points". I (as many others do too) prefer to look at what is not included in the line, which generally falls into 2 categories, the specific stylistic matchup of a game and the situational spot. I've seen you talk about both of these and that's why I always like to read your stuff. I do think the Guy thing I mentioned is important to the handicap and making it difficult for me to fall in love with UVA tonight. More on the style part of the matchup - I'm typically not worried about UVA against strong offensive rebounding teams because how well they rebound defensively, but UNC is historically good on the glass. One reason this is so important is because UVA's grind it out style relies heavily on not giving the other team second opportunities. UNC is just so dominant on the glass, this has to be a concern. UNC's offensive rebounding does fall of slightly on the road, but surprisingly UVA's defensive rebounding has been slightly better at home - nothing drastic in the home/road split so not factoring that in much. At first glance, the situation heavily favors UVA IMO. First, there seems to be value in the line, factoring in home court, this line is about 3.5 - 4.5 points different than the first meeting (-6 in UNC, say 5-6 point difference in home court because you need to count it twice, that would suggest tonight's line should be about UNC -1 or PK). The question then becomes, is this difference warranted? Or asked another way, was UVA really playing that much higher than their true selves earlier in the year and are more like the team we've seen lately? A lot of people seem to think the latter is more accurate. More on the situation, UNC has a huge lead on the conference, so they could be over comfortable tonight. On the flip side, they can clinch tonight, which some people point to as a motivating factor. Also, UNC has a big rivalry game coming up against Duke so they could be looking ahead. But, like we've said on here a lot of times before, the team also needs to be taken into account when considering the look ahead spot. Most teams, I would love to fade in this spot, but UNC is clearly feels like they have some unfinished business after losing the championship last year and is very motivated to get back. Ultimately a very tough cap, but if it hits +4, I may have a small play on UVA. If I find out more info on Guy and it seems like he'll be a bigger part of the game plan tonight, the over is worth a thought. BOL tonight.
Injury problems for Thompson and Wilkins are a major concern though. Especially Wilkins for rebounding purposes.
UVA won't be able to score enough points to keep up with UNC...the line seems fishy to some, but hey let's just be real UNC is the better team across the board...Heels by 6
UNC is definitely the better team, but how can you say the line is fishy? I don't understand the people on here that are saying this line is way too low, Vegas begging for UNC money. What the hell would you want the line to be? 10? That would be crazy in UVA. The line was -6 in UNC, which suggests the line should be about PK in UVA, but there's been an adjustment for UNC's recent dominance, UVA's recent struggles, and UVA injury concerns. The line makes sense. Yes UNC, can cover, yes UNC can blow them out, but you guys saying this line is fishy because it's "too low" look way too much at previous matchup final scores and have way too big of a recency bias.
UVA won't be able to score enough points to keep up with UNC...the line seems fishy to some, but hey let's just be real UNC is the better team across the board...Heels by 6
UNC is definitely the better team, but how can you say the line is fishy? I don't understand the people on here that are saying this line is way too low, Vegas begging for UNC money. What the hell would you want the line to be? 10? That would be crazy in UVA. The line was -6 in UNC, which suggests the line should be about PK in UVA, but there's been an adjustment for UNC's recent dominance, UVA's recent struggles, and UVA injury concerns. The line makes sense. Yes UNC, can cover, yes UNC can blow them out, but you guys saying this line is fishy because it's "too low" look way too much at previous matchup final scores and have way too big of a recency bias.
UNC is definitely the better team, but how can you say the line is fishy? I don't understand the people on here that are saying this line is way too low, Vegas begging for UNC money. What the hell would you want the line to be? 10? That would be crazy in UVA. The line was -6 in UNC, which suggests the line should be about PK in UVA, but there's been an adjustment for UNC's recent dominance, UVA's recent struggles, and UVA injury concerns. The line makes sense. Yes UNC, can cover, yes UNC can blow them out, but you guys saying this line is fishy because it's "too low" look way too much at previous matchup final scores and have way too big of a recency bias.
I believe the opening line of the game at UNC was closer to -4 and it got bet up to -6?
UNC is definitely the better team, but how can you say the line is fishy? I don't understand the people on here that are saying this line is way too low, Vegas begging for UNC money. What the hell would you want the line to be? 10? That would be crazy in UVA. The line was -6 in UNC, which suggests the line should be about PK in UVA, but there's been an adjustment for UNC's recent dominance, UVA's recent struggles, and UVA injury concerns. The line makes sense. Yes UNC, can cover, yes UNC can blow them out, but you guys saying this line is fishy because it's "too low" look way too much at previous matchup final scores and have way too big of a recency bias.
I believe the opening line of the game at UNC was closer to -4 and it got bet up to -6?
I'm seeing UVA +4.5 and I think I am going to have a small play there. Even if it doesn't hit, it's entering into the smart bet range. I'm going to wait until 6 PM and hope it hits +5.
I'm seeing UVA +4.5 and I think I am going to have a small play there. Even if it doesn't hit, it's entering into the smart bet range. I'm going to wait until 6 PM and hope it hits +5.
Jags, IDK bout your boys tonight.. Spread is shooting up. i could see them come out to play. If Manbun and Jerome are able to hit some shots i think it will be close. they need some scoring besides London and Loul Deng's little brother Shayok (love his game BTW- he will only get better next year)
I think UNC wins straight up.. I see value in UVA +4.5/+5
My book has it at 3.5.. no play for me at this point. may wait till second half..
Jags, IDK bout your boys tonight.. Spread is shooting up. i could see them come out to play. If Manbun and Jerome are able to hit some shots i think it will be close. they need some scoring besides London and Loul Deng's little brother Shayok (love his game BTW- he will only get better next year)
I think UNC wins straight up.. I see value in UVA +4.5/+5
My book has it at 3.5.. no play for me at this point. may wait till second half..
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