Tried to deliver my first moose of the year but was only able to get a push. I have numerous games I'm looking at today. Please remember that I am just looking at these games with NO LEANS TOWARDS SIDES until I study the games further. Games I am studying for today are ULL/Houston; western Michigan/UWM; I'm shocked that Pacific is such a dog because I was wanting the line to be about -4 or -5 and I would have been on Missouri St, very surprised to see that line at -8. I am also looking at a few totals. I wanted to tell you that I have already locked in Sacramento St +1 on matchbook. I don't have time for a write-up at the moment, but I will try to post one later today. I'll be back in a while with some write-ups or additional plays
Tried to deliver my first moose of the year but was only able to get a push. I have numerous games I'm looking at today. Please remember that I am just looking at these games with NO LEANS TOWARDS SIDES until I study the games further. Games I am studying for today are ULL/Houston; western Michigan/UWM; I'm shocked that Pacific is such a dog because I was wanting the line to be about -4 or -5 and I would have been on Missouri St, very surprised to see that line at -8. I am also looking at a few totals. I wanted to tell you that I have already locked in Sacramento St +1 on matchbook. I don't have time for a write-up at the moment, but I will try to post one later today. I'll be back in a while with some write-ups or additional plays
1st Play: Sacramento St +1 (hopefully write-up to come)
2nd Play: Louisiana Lafayette +9
Here is briefly why I (and my boys) are on ULL +9.
First, ULL has played a tougher schedule than Houston. Houston and ULL are pretty much mirror images of each other. Both have new coaches, those coaches have very similar philosophies (they are from the same coaching "tree"), both have question marks on the offensive end.
One thing that has flown under the radar is that ULL's best offensive player has been out with a sickness. Travis Bureau ended last season with a 22 and 8 (he is a guard by the way), then he had a 21 and 6 against NMSU (blowout loss) and then 16 and 14 (in a blowout win against a non-Div I opponent). At Creighton, Travis was sick and tried to play - he went 0 fer from the field in only 18. ULL only lost by 5 as 12.5 pt underdogs despite getting nothing from Bureau. Travis missed the last game against Cleveland St (a game in which ULL lost by 5 and a 5-pt dog).
Despite missing their best player, ULL has shown improvement in every game of the season. I am happy to say that I am now Facebook friends with Travis Bureau and he is pumped and ready to go for tonight's game against Houston.
Houston, on the other hand, has played a much softer schedule. Houston is just average on the boards (which is good for ULL as they are too) and they have only one main inside presence. If Maurice McNeil has an off night - I can easily see Houston losing this game straight up. McNeil is shooting almost 65% from the field and averaging a double double. Since getting dominated by NMSU's big man Gillenwater in the season opener, ULL has been better against the main post presence of their opponents.
Add to this fact that Houston is terrible from the free-throw line (under 60%! and its their main players/shooters that are bad) and that is great for us getting 9 in this game. Also, Houston is giving up only 23% from the 3-pt line. Last year, Houston was mediocre at best at defending the 3 and even worse at defending the 2. I believe this percentage is a combination of playing poor opponents and luck. I believe we are getting some unbelievable "profitability" in this game and am looking to get my money in in this types of situations all season long. Anything can happen, but I do really like this play. Good luck with whatever you decide.
1st Play: Sacramento St +1 (hopefully write-up to come)
2nd Play: Louisiana Lafayette +9
Here is briefly why I (and my boys) are on ULL +9.
First, ULL has played a tougher schedule than Houston. Houston and ULL are pretty much mirror images of each other. Both have new coaches, those coaches have very similar philosophies (they are from the same coaching "tree"), both have question marks on the offensive end.
One thing that has flown under the radar is that ULL's best offensive player has been out with a sickness. Travis Bureau ended last season with a 22 and 8 (he is a guard by the way), then he had a 21 and 6 against NMSU (blowout loss) and then 16 and 14 (in a blowout win against a non-Div I opponent). At Creighton, Travis was sick and tried to play - he went 0 fer from the field in only 18. ULL only lost by 5 as 12.5 pt underdogs despite getting nothing from Bureau. Travis missed the last game against Cleveland St (a game in which ULL lost by 5 and a 5-pt dog).
Despite missing their best player, ULL has shown improvement in every game of the season. I am happy to say that I am now Facebook friends with Travis Bureau and he is pumped and ready to go for tonight's game against Houston.
Houston, on the other hand, has played a much softer schedule. Houston is just average on the boards (which is good for ULL as they are too) and they have only one main inside presence. If Maurice McNeil has an off night - I can easily see Houston losing this game straight up. McNeil is shooting almost 65% from the field and averaging a double double. Since getting dominated by NMSU's big man Gillenwater in the season opener, ULL has been better against the main post presence of their opponents.
Add to this fact that Houston is terrible from the free-throw line (under 60%! and its their main players/shooters that are bad) and that is great for us getting 9 in this game. Also, Houston is giving up only 23% from the 3-pt line. Last year, Houston was mediocre at best at defending the 3 and even worse at defending the 2. I believe this percentage is a combination of playing poor opponents and luck. I believe we are getting some unbelievable "profitability" in this game and am looking to get my money in in this types of situations all season long. Anything can happen, but I do really like this play. Good luck with whatever you decide.
1st Play: Sacramento St +1 (hopefully write-up to come)
2nd Play: Louisiana Lafayette +9
Here is briefly why I (and my boys) are on ULL +9.
First, ULL has played a tougher schedule than Houston. Houston and ULL are pretty much mirror images of each other. Both have new coaches, those coaches have very similar philosophies (they are from the same coaching "tree"), both have question marks on the offensive end.
One thing that has flown under the radar is that ULL's best offensive player has been out with a sickness. Travis Bureau ended last season with a 22 and 8 (he is a guard by the way), then he had a 21 and 6 against NMSU (blowout loss) and then 16 and 14 (in a blowout win against a non-Div I opponent). At Creighton, Travis was sick and tried to play - he went 0 fer from the field in only 18. ULL only lost by 5 as 12.5 pt underdogs despite getting nothing from Bureau. Travis missed the last game against Cleveland St (a game in which ULL lost by 5 and a 5-pt dog).
Despite missing their best player, ULL has shown improvement in every game of the season. I am happy to say that I am now Facebook friends with Travis Bureau and he is pumped and ready to go for tonight's game against Houston.
Houston, on the other hand, has played a much softer schedule. Houston is just average on the boards (which is good for ULL as they are too) and they have only one main inside presence. If Maurice McNeil has an off night - I can easily see Houston losing this game straight up. McNeil is shooting almost 65% from the field and averaging a double double. Since getting dominated by NMSU's big man Gillenwater in the season opener, ULL has been better against the main post presence of their opponents.
Add to this fact that Houston is terrible from the free-throw line (under 60%! and its their main players/shooters that are bad) and that is great for us getting 9 in this game. Also, Houston is giving up only 23% from the 3-pt line. Last year, Houston was mediocre at best at defending the 3 and even worse at defending the 2. I believe this percentage is a combination of playing poor opponents and luck. I believe we are getting some unbelievable "profitability" in this game and am looking to get my money in in this types of situations all season long. Anything can happen, but I do really like this play. Good luck with whatever you decide.
1st Play: Sacramento St +1 (hopefully write-up to come)
2nd Play: Louisiana Lafayette +9
Here is briefly why I (and my boys) are on ULL +9.
First, ULL has played a tougher schedule than Houston. Houston and ULL are pretty much mirror images of each other. Both have new coaches, those coaches have very similar philosophies (they are from the same coaching "tree"), both have question marks on the offensive end.
One thing that has flown under the radar is that ULL's best offensive player has been out with a sickness. Travis Bureau ended last season with a 22 and 8 (he is a guard by the way), then he had a 21 and 6 against NMSU (blowout loss) and then 16 and 14 (in a blowout win against a non-Div I opponent). At Creighton, Travis was sick and tried to play - he went 0 fer from the field in only 18. ULL only lost by 5 as 12.5 pt underdogs despite getting nothing from Bureau. Travis missed the last game against Cleveland St (a game in which ULL lost by 5 and a 5-pt dog).
Despite missing their best player, ULL has shown improvement in every game of the season. I am happy to say that I am now Facebook friends with Travis Bureau and he is pumped and ready to go for tonight's game against Houston.
Houston, on the other hand, has played a much softer schedule. Houston is just average on the boards (which is good for ULL as they are too) and they have only one main inside presence. If Maurice McNeil has an off night - I can easily see Houston losing this game straight up. McNeil is shooting almost 65% from the field and averaging a double double. Since getting dominated by NMSU's big man Gillenwater in the season opener, ULL has been better against the main post presence of their opponents.
Add to this fact that Houston is terrible from the free-throw line (under 60%! and its their main players/shooters that are bad) and that is great for us getting 9 in this game. Also, Houston is giving up only 23% from the 3-pt line. Last year, Houston was mediocre at best at defending the 3 and even worse at defending the 2. I believe this percentage is a combination of playing poor opponents and luck. I believe we are getting some unbelievable "profitability" in this game and am looking to get my money in in this types of situations all season long. Anything can happen, but I do really like this play. Good luck with whatever you decide.
Waiting on this Sacramento St write-up...seems like a very popular play on the board today that I haven't seen any reasoning behind...
Here's a few brief reasons (I can't speak to its popularity on the board as I only read a few select poster's thread and I suggest that everyone else do the same - reading too many threads can really mess with your head and cloud your thinking):
Sacramento is secretly an excellent ATS team - going 16-9 last season. They are a much better team at home and the players are now in the 3rd year of their new coach's system. They have an EXCELLENT pt guard and got some very good juco transfers. They also decided to redshirt two athletic post players last year - so they practiced with the team all season and know the systems well and are just now getting to play in the games. Both of these post were a little banged up coming into the season but are getting healthier as the weeks go by. Sac St has also been tinkering with their starting lineup and rotation and have begun to find some things that work.
Irvine, on the other hand, has started the season terribly. They are 1-4 overall and 0-4 against the spread (linesmakers can't catch up with how poorly this team is playing). They have struggled offensively (and on the boards) and that has leaked over to their defense (which was suppose to be their strong point). UC Davis is giving up over 50% from the field against Div I opponents and that doesn't bode well against Sac St who has scored over 80 a game in their two home games (one was in OT though).
I'm in no way saying this is a slam dunk, but we are getting a team in Sac St that plays well at home, is excellent versus the spread, and it rounding into form (with both health and with roles and rotation) and a Davis squad that has been poor on both sides of the ball. Sac St has beaten Davis in each of their last two meetings and Sac St is the more improved squad to me. This should be a close game and no outcome would surprise me - but I like Sac St to win this game. I could certainly understand if someone liked the other side or made this a no-play. I think Sac St is underrated and Davis is overrated and what better time to exploit it then when the two teams play each other. Good luck with whatever you decide.
Waiting on this Sacramento St write-up...seems like a very popular play on the board today that I haven't seen any reasoning behind...
Here's a few brief reasons (I can't speak to its popularity on the board as I only read a few select poster's thread and I suggest that everyone else do the same - reading too many threads can really mess with your head and cloud your thinking):
Sacramento is secretly an excellent ATS team - going 16-9 last season. They are a much better team at home and the players are now in the 3rd year of their new coach's system. They have an EXCELLENT pt guard and got some very good juco transfers. They also decided to redshirt two athletic post players last year - so they practiced with the team all season and know the systems well and are just now getting to play in the games. Both of these post were a little banged up coming into the season but are getting healthier as the weeks go by. Sac St has also been tinkering with their starting lineup and rotation and have begun to find some things that work.
Irvine, on the other hand, has started the season terribly. They are 1-4 overall and 0-4 against the spread (linesmakers can't catch up with how poorly this team is playing). They have struggled offensively (and on the boards) and that has leaked over to their defense (which was suppose to be their strong point). UC Davis is giving up over 50% from the field against Div I opponents and that doesn't bode well against Sac St who has scored over 80 a game in their two home games (one was in OT though).
I'm in no way saying this is a slam dunk, but we are getting a team in Sac St that plays well at home, is excellent versus the spread, and it rounding into form (with both health and with roles and rotation) and a Davis squad that has been poor on both sides of the ball. Sac St has beaten Davis in each of their last two meetings and Sac St is the more improved squad to me. This should be a close game and no outcome would surprise me - but I like Sac St to win this game. I could certainly understand if someone liked the other side or made this a no-play. I think Sac St is underrated and Davis is overrated and what better time to exploit it then when the two teams play each other. Good luck with whatever you decide.
I'm watching a couple of lines and looking at a few totals - might be finished with the card here - but I could also see making a few more plays if a few lines continue to move and I think there are some totals out there to exploit (gotta get them now before they get super tight)
I'm watching a couple of lines and looking at a few totals - might be finished with the card here - but I could also see making a few more plays if a few lines continue to move and I think there are some totals out there to exploit (gotta get them now before they get super tight)
You dont think the houston line stinks? I thought it would be 4.5 or 5 and it opened 7.5 and went quickly to 8, 8,5, 9...settled at 8.5.
All my wins this season have been on lines that I think "stink." Why would Western Michigan be a 3-pt favorite at home against a 4-0 Loyola Chicago team hitting on all cylinders? Loyola went on to lead by double digits the entire game and won by 15-20. Pacific was an almost double digit dog to UTEP at UTEP despite the fact that UTEP has a new coach and had only one set play of their man-to-man offense in. Pacific leads most of the game and wins the game straight up.
I could go on and on, I just don't believe that "someone" out there knows some secret info about this game and is setting a big trap.
I know for a fact that this Houston/ULL game isn't on 95% of gamblers radar - why set a trap on a game like that. I can pretty much guarantee you that most (if not all) of gamblers looking at that game didn't even know/realize that Travis Bureau was even out or that he will be back tonight.
Sportsnetwork and Kenpom thinks that this will be a double digit win for Houston, while ESPN insider simulations has it a 5-6 pt Houston win. I think that this line was set to get close to equal action on both sides - the public/squares would be willing to lay the points based on ULL's past performance (both this season and last) while informed gamblers who do their homework would be willing to take a chance with an underperforming ULL team.
If I don't bet lines that I think "stink" I won't be making any money this season. I know this is where some cappers philosophies differ from mine, but my way of doing things has a pretty solid track record of success. If it starts underperforming I will look for a new philosophy, just have never need to change it to this point.
In my opinion "trap" or lines that "stink" exist (if they even exist) much more often in football (especially with the fact that most people have seen the teams they are betting on many times). You have to change your mindset when betting basketball. When the lines come out the night before I am searching/praying for lines I think stink so I can exploit them. Sometimes I end of finding that the line is actually right based on many factors, other times I don't and I make a bet, just like tonight on ULL.
This by no means guarantees that ULL covers this game tonight - but I have a strong belief that it will happen significantly more than 50% of the time
Your always welcome in my thread and I appreciate the question.
You dont think the houston line stinks? I thought it would be 4.5 or 5 and it opened 7.5 and went quickly to 8, 8,5, 9...settled at 8.5.
All my wins this season have been on lines that I think "stink." Why would Western Michigan be a 3-pt favorite at home against a 4-0 Loyola Chicago team hitting on all cylinders? Loyola went on to lead by double digits the entire game and won by 15-20. Pacific was an almost double digit dog to UTEP at UTEP despite the fact that UTEP has a new coach and had only one set play of their man-to-man offense in. Pacific leads most of the game and wins the game straight up.
I could go on and on, I just don't believe that "someone" out there knows some secret info about this game and is setting a big trap.
I know for a fact that this Houston/ULL game isn't on 95% of gamblers radar - why set a trap on a game like that. I can pretty much guarantee you that most (if not all) of gamblers looking at that game didn't even know/realize that Travis Bureau was even out or that he will be back tonight.
Sportsnetwork and Kenpom thinks that this will be a double digit win for Houston, while ESPN insider simulations has it a 5-6 pt Houston win. I think that this line was set to get close to equal action on both sides - the public/squares would be willing to lay the points based on ULL's past performance (both this season and last) while informed gamblers who do their homework would be willing to take a chance with an underperforming ULL team.
If I don't bet lines that I think "stink" I won't be making any money this season. I know this is where some cappers philosophies differ from mine, but my way of doing things has a pretty solid track record of success. If it starts underperforming I will look for a new philosophy, just have never need to change it to this point.
In my opinion "trap" or lines that "stink" exist (if they even exist) much more often in football (especially with the fact that most people have seen the teams they are betting on many times). You have to change your mindset when betting basketball. When the lines come out the night before I am searching/praying for lines I think stink so I can exploit them. Sometimes I end of finding that the line is actually right based on many factors, other times I don't and I make a bet, just like tonight on ULL.
This by no means guarantees that ULL covers this game tonight - but I have a strong belief that it will happen significantly more than 50% of the time
Your always welcome in my thread and I appreciate the question.
This team improved by 7 wins last season, and while some people may think no big deal, when you won 2 the year before then it is a huge deal. The coach feels his squad this year is most athletic and capable of running the up tempo offense that he wants to establish. Playing at home is a huge bonus to this team as you already mentioned. UC Davis on the other hand is in shambles with 5 players tailing it out before the season started leaving an already sad defense team with less than they already had. I feel Sac St can push the tempo and really wear down Davis tonight. Motivationally Sac St should also have the edge as they are trying to keep improving the program. The way UC Davis has played I don't know where their heads are at right now either. Are they going to be up for Sac St? Probably not. Sac St on the other hand has beaten this team the last couple of times and should come into this game confident and knowing they can win.
This team improved by 7 wins last season, and while some people may think no big deal, when you won 2 the year before then it is a huge deal. The coach feels his squad this year is most athletic and capable of running the up tempo offense that he wants to establish. Playing at home is a huge bonus to this team as you already mentioned. UC Davis on the other hand is in shambles with 5 players tailing it out before the season started leaving an already sad defense team with less than they already had. I feel Sac St can push the tempo and really wear down Davis tonight. Motivationally Sac St should also have the edge as they are trying to keep improving the program. The way UC Davis has played I don't know where their heads are at right now either. Are they going to be up for Sac St? Probably not. Sac St on the other hand has beaten this team the last couple of times and should come into this game confident and knowing they can win.
Tried to deliver my first moose of the year but was only able to get a push. I have numerous games I'm looking at today. Please remember that I am just looking at these games with NO LEANS TOWARDS SIDES until I study the games further. Games I am studying for today are ULL/Houston; western Michigan/UWM; I'm shocked that Pacific is such a dog because I was wanting the line to be about -4 or -5 and I would have been on Missouri St, very surprised to see that line at -8. I am also looking at a few totals. I wanted to tell you that I have already locked in Sacramento St +1 on matchbook. I don't have time for a write-up at the moment, but I will try to post one later today. I'll be back in a while with some write-ups or additional plays
KP,
I love Sac State here... check out my "My alma mater is an auto fade" thread... but also, look at nropp11's write up; it provides a bit of cause for concern with this pick.
Tried to deliver my first moose of the year but was only able to get a push. I have numerous games I'm looking at today. Please remember that I am just looking at these games with NO LEANS TOWARDS SIDES until I study the games further. Games I am studying for today are ULL/Houston; western Michigan/UWM; I'm shocked that Pacific is such a dog because I was wanting the line to be about -4 or -5 and I would have been on Missouri St, very surprised to see that line at -8. I am also looking at a few totals. I wanted to tell you that I have already locked in Sacramento St +1 on matchbook. I don't have time for a write-up at the moment, but I will try to post one later today. I'll be back in a while with some write-ups or additional plays
KP,
I love Sac State here... check out my "My alma mater is an auto fade" thread... but also, look at nropp11's write up; it provides a bit of cause for concern with this pick.
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