Disappointing finish to the day yesterday after the hot start. Some bad beats late in the day, finished 9-6-2 ATS but at some point was 7-2-1 ATS. Moving on to today:
Purdue Boilermakers -1
Don't drink the Kool Aid just yet. I know Michigan State is playing a lot better than they did earlier this season and I know Purdue has not swept the season series since 1997 so the Spartans look good on paper but if you have watched Sparty play, even in their last two games, there is something missing. I don't know what it is and it might be that these guys are ready to move on with their careers elsewhere (professional careers or basketball careers) but let's not forget that even in their best of times, Michigan State lost to Purdue at home last year for the first time since 1998 and this Boilermakers team seems to understand what is going on here. Purdue also understands the importance of continuing to win and continuing to pursue the Big Ten Conference share of the title with Ohio State, something they still have a shot at if they win out and have some luck. Nonetheless, this game is all about Kalin Lucas, who has been the one and only reason Michigan State has won lately, but Lucas was held to 3 of 16 shooting in the first meeting, a 10 point loss by Michigan State. As long as Purdue defends Lucas, they should win this one. Purdue has covered the spread in four straight games coming off a straight up win and they are now 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus Big Ten Conference opponents. Michigan State is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite, they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games coming off a straight up win and they have covered the spread in only 9 of their last 33 home games. Horrible! This is no longer considered an exclusive place to play and the Boilermakers sense that. I'm very impressed by Purdue's resilience in 2011 and I'll gladly back them as an underdog here.
Purdue plus the points.
Louisville Cardinals -1.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Not Big East team has won yet in this new Arena called the KFC Yum Center so why should the Pittsburgh Panthers? Well for starters they are current Big East Conference leaders and with only three games to go it won't take much to clinch their first Big East Conference regular season title since 2003-2004. Yes it's been a long time and the Panthers can smell it with a two game lead on Notre Dame. Here is why they don't win this game and it's very simple. The Irish from Notre Dame are not likely to win out on the season and a loss by the Irish pretty much ends it right there but Pittsburgh doesn't have to kill themselves to win this game because they go to South Florida later this week and then have Villanova at home next Saturday and we all know how Nova is playing. Why bother betting on them in this game knowing that their motivation might not be all that high and knowing that Louisville have so much more on the line because they are that close to clinching a bye in the Big East Conference Tournament and that's huge in this Conference. So having not lost a single Big East Conference home game so far in 2010-2011, there is no reason to believe the Cardinals would lose now. The spread is low enough to bet like it's a MoneyLine and again Pitt has their sights set on winning their last two games with the possibility of clinching on Wednesday. This is just the type of game Louisville has been winning all season and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games versus an opponent that has a winning percentage greater than .600 on the road. The Cardinals have also covered the spread in 14 of their last 20 games played on a Sunday and there is way too much on the line for them here to lose to a Panthers team that could lose interest in a hurry. I'm taking the Cardinals and making this my TOP PLAY OF THE WEEKEND with some big money.
Louisville minus the points.
Maryland Terrapins +6
If there is one team Maryland always plays well against, it's the North Carolina Tar Heels and although the Heels are playing like a TOP 10 team right now, Maryland knows they can hang with just about any team that scores points in bunches. In their last five games the Terps are averaging 85.2 points per game and shooting 51.0% from the field. I am well aware that North Carolina probably has revenge on their minds from the drubbing they took at the hands of the Terps in Maryland last year but can they handle all this offense from a team that is beaming with confidence after a huge home win over Florida State? The North Carolina teams who have scored 100+ points on Maryland in Chapel Hills over the course of the last 5-6 years, were all offensive powerhouses but this North Carolina team is averaging only 67.6 points per game in their last five games and shooting only 39.4% from the field in those games. That's going to make this very tough if the Terps start making their shots. Mind you the Heels play a lot better at home and score a lot more at home than they do on the road but so does Maryland and that's what makes this rather large spread so difficult to back the Heels on with the Duke game only one week away. The Terps have covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 road games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and have covered 14 of their last 20 road games overall. The Heels have generally been lazy on Sundays for some reason going 1-5 ATS in their last six games played on a Sunday and the last 26 times a road team came into this place with a losing record away from home, the Heels covered the spread only 7 of 26 times against those teams. Maryland is on a five game spread streak against North Carolina, they can put some big time points on the board and I'll back them to keep this game close.
Disappointing finish to the day yesterday after the hot start. Some bad beats late in the day, finished 9-6-2 ATS but at some point was 7-2-1 ATS. Moving on to today:
Purdue Boilermakers -1
Don't drink the Kool Aid just yet. I know Michigan State is playing a lot better than they did earlier this season and I know Purdue has not swept the season series since 1997 so the Spartans look good on paper but if you have watched Sparty play, even in their last two games, there is something missing. I don't know what it is and it might be that these guys are ready to move on with their careers elsewhere (professional careers or basketball careers) but let's not forget that even in their best of times, Michigan State lost to Purdue at home last year for the first time since 1998 and this Boilermakers team seems to understand what is going on here. Purdue also understands the importance of continuing to win and continuing to pursue the Big Ten Conference share of the title with Ohio State, something they still have a shot at if they win out and have some luck. Nonetheless, this game is all about Kalin Lucas, who has been the one and only reason Michigan State has won lately, but Lucas was held to 3 of 16 shooting in the first meeting, a 10 point loss by Michigan State. As long as Purdue defends Lucas, they should win this one. Purdue has covered the spread in four straight games coming off a straight up win and they are now 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus Big Ten Conference opponents. Michigan State is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite, they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games coming off a straight up win and they have covered the spread in only 9 of their last 33 home games. Horrible! This is no longer considered an exclusive place to play and the Boilermakers sense that. I'm very impressed by Purdue's resilience in 2011 and I'll gladly back them as an underdog here.
Purdue plus the points.
Louisville Cardinals -1.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Not Big East team has won yet in this new Arena called the KFC Yum Center so why should the Pittsburgh Panthers? Well for starters they are current Big East Conference leaders and with only three games to go it won't take much to clinch their first Big East Conference regular season title since 2003-2004. Yes it's been a long time and the Panthers can smell it with a two game lead on Notre Dame. Here is why they don't win this game and it's very simple. The Irish from Notre Dame are not likely to win out on the season and a loss by the Irish pretty much ends it right there but Pittsburgh doesn't have to kill themselves to win this game because they go to South Florida later this week and then have Villanova at home next Saturday and we all know how Nova is playing. Why bother betting on them in this game knowing that their motivation might not be all that high and knowing that Louisville have so much more on the line because they are that close to clinching a bye in the Big East Conference Tournament and that's huge in this Conference. So having not lost a single Big East Conference home game so far in 2010-2011, there is no reason to believe the Cardinals would lose now. The spread is low enough to bet like it's a MoneyLine and again Pitt has their sights set on winning their last two games with the possibility of clinching on Wednesday. This is just the type of game Louisville has been winning all season and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games versus an opponent that has a winning percentage greater than .600 on the road. The Cardinals have also covered the spread in 14 of their last 20 games played on a Sunday and there is way too much on the line for them here to lose to a Panthers team that could lose interest in a hurry. I'm taking the Cardinals and making this my TOP PLAY OF THE WEEKEND with some big money.
Louisville minus the points.
Maryland Terrapins +6
If there is one team Maryland always plays well against, it's the North Carolina Tar Heels and although the Heels are playing like a TOP 10 team right now, Maryland knows they can hang with just about any team that scores points in bunches. In their last five games the Terps are averaging 85.2 points per game and shooting 51.0% from the field. I am well aware that North Carolina probably has revenge on their minds from the drubbing they took at the hands of the Terps in Maryland last year but can they handle all this offense from a team that is beaming with confidence after a huge home win over Florida State? The North Carolina teams who have scored 100+ points on Maryland in Chapel Hills over the course of the last 5-6 years, were all offensive powerhouses but this North Carolina team is averaging only 67.6 points per game in their last five games and shooting only 39.4% from the field in those games. That's going to make this very tough if the Terps start making their shots. Mind you the Heels play a lot better at home and score a lot more at home than they do on the road but so does Maryland and that's what makes this rather large spread so difficult to back the Heels on with the Duke game only one week away. The Terps have covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 road games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and have covered 14 of their last 20 road games overall. The Heels have generally been lazy on Sundays for some reason going 1-5 ATS in their last six games played on a Sunday and the last 26 times a road team came into this place with a losing record away from home, the Heels covered the spread only 7 of 26 times against those teams. Maryland is on a five game spread streak against North Carolina, they can put some big time points on the board and I'll back them to keep this game close.
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