Miami Heat not so hot ATS as double-digit favorites

May 6, 2013 |
The Miami Heat have been double-digit pointspread favorites in three of their five NBA playoff games this spring, heading into tonight’s Game 1 matchup with the Chicago Bulls as 11.5-point chalk. It’s a role that has burned Miami faithful over the course of the season.

The defending NBA champs have been double-digit faves 23 times, including the postseason, winning all but two of those one-sided matchups. However, when factoring in the spread, Miami has gone just 9-14 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points.

The Heat were twice tabbed as double-digit faves against the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the playoffs, winning both SU but splitting against the spread. Last year, Miami was double-digit chalk only once en route to the NBA title, covering an 11.5-point spread with a 106-94 win over the New York Knicks in Game 5 of the opening round.

Miami didn’t catch as many big lines in 2011-12 and was set as a double-digit favorite only 15 times, including the playoffs, finishing with a 14-1 SU record and a 9-6 count ATS.

As for the total in those games as double-digit favorites, Miami has gone 12-9-2 over/under this year heading into Monday. Last season, the Heat posted a 4-11 over/under mark as big chalk.

Tonight’s Game 1 total is set as 186.

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