Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong

Mar 11, 2013 |
Covers Expert Jesse Schule isn't a big believer in Gonzaga.
Covers Expert Jesse Schule isn't a big believer in Gonzaga.
Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Georgetown Hoyas (24-5 SU, 15-10 ATS)

Can anyone beat Georgetown right now? Sure, the Hoyas slipped up on the road at Villanova, but so have Louisville, Syracuse and Marquette. Georgetown bounced right back from its only defeat in 12 games by blowing out the Orange at home on Saturday. After covering the points in nine of their last 10 games, the Hoyas appear to be the team to beat as we head into the NCAA Tournament.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team - Gonzaga Bulldogs (30-2 SU, 16-12-2 ATS)

The Gonzaga Bulldogs sit at the top of all of the polls after rattling off 13 consecutive wins. As impressive as this run is, it's important to consider that not one of those victories came against a Top 25 team. In fact, the last time the Zags faced a ranked team is the last time they lost. Gonzaga fell to the Butler Bulldogs on the road in January and it has a losing record against ranked teams (1-2 SU). Even more telling, both those two losses came against two teams that have since fallen out of the rankings (Butler and Illinois). The Zags face St. Mary's Monday in the WCC Tournament final. It would be no surprise to see a close game and potentially an upset.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked - Notre Dame Fighting Irish (23-8 SU, 14-14 ATS)

The Irish aren't popular with the public or the books, but I think they are a lot better than people give them credit for. They have proved time and time again they can play with the best teams in the country. Notre Dame has a record of 4-3 versus Top 25 teams, including an overtime win against No. 4 Louisville last month. The Irish might be getting a lot of points as an unranked underdog in the tournament when playing ranked opponents. I like Notre Dame as a dark horse to make some noise in the coming weeks. 
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