I’m here to launch a missile at the books and I just hope it doesn’t loop back and smoke us instead. But I really think this one’s on target. Bengals plus 10.5.
Detroit’s been rolling all season. Goff looks confident, Amon Ra St Brown is cooking, and that run game with Montgomery and Gibbs just keeps moving the chains. The Lions are legit, no doubt about it, but laying ten and a half on the road is a heavy ask in the NFL. You’ve got to be clean in every phase to cover that kind of number, and I don’t think they will be.
Let’s be real here, Cincinnati’s defense has not been good. They can’t tackle, they give up big plays, and the secondary has been getting exposed. But at home, with a fired-up crowd and a chip on their shoulder, they can hang around. You don’t need them to shut anyone down, you just need them to slow the game enough for the offense to do its part.
Jake Browning is not Joe Burrow, and nobody’s pretending he is. But the guy can make some throws, and he’s got plenty of help. Ja Marr Chase can change a game in one play, Tee Higgins finally looks healthy, and Mike Gesicki and Noah Fant both give him big targets in the middle of the field. If Browning just stays calm, takes what’s there, and avoids the big mistakes, the Bengals can move the ball.
Cincinnati just needs to get into the end zone a couple of times and keep Detroit kicking field goals. That’s how you stay inside this number. The Lions have been great, but they’re not some unstoppable machine. On the road, with everyone betting on them, this feels like the perfect spot to go the other way.
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