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scalabrine | 117 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions
He is underrolled already.
2k bank and he is betting 100$ this is a recipe for desaster if you are not very selective. Now you want him to bet 200$ on a single play? Uff... But ok he is trying to hit a high ROI and a high win %, it might be just fine to play a bit more risky with 100$ stakes, but 200$ is overdoing it. As long as he keeps going near the 57%+ mark it will be just fine. If you ask me I would not be betting more than 35$ on spreads/totals with this bankroll, but alright I have a different approach to this and have way more plays than Marvin during the course of a week and vary my stake a lot depending on the odds I take and the win % I expect. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions
I'm on Atlanta -5.5 tonight and also on the ML.
They have a good ROI, in the odds range of 1.5-2 and when facing a spread in the range of 2-8. Seems to be a good play. Utah is a brave call. A bit too brave for me, I won't get involved in this close game, can't see the Clippers lose easy here and it really might come down to a couple possesions with the extra points coming in handy, but Clippers are favorite no doubt. But I can see where it is coming from, Utah is a very strong team at home and they have a good ROI as an underdog. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by FinesFan: I think you just don't understand maths.. It
is simple to understand than a ROI of 5% isn't the same as a ROI of
1%... Would you prefer to risk 1 000$ and win 50$ instead of risking 10
000$ to make 100$ ? It is the wrong question. Are you certain you can invest the $10k safely to gain a return of 100$ during the same time? Then yes I'd choose to make 100$ instead of 50$, it just involves turning the same bank over multiple times. But it already comes closer to the core questions. What are you comfortable with? How skilled are you as a capper? Can you quantify your edge accurately enough to make those close calls? If yes it's extra profit, if no leave those closer bets out. Quote Originally Posted by phixer: 8 games wagered >> 5 wins - 3 losses >> 880 invested
>> total return 1050>> profit = 170 = 19.31%ROI =62.5%
winning rate 4 games wagered>> 3 wins - 1
loss>> 440 invested>> totals return 630 >> profit=190
= 43.18 ROI = 75% winning rate Why risk double as much money to win less? fiiire - who has to learn the basic math? Quote Originally Posted by phixer: That's ridiculous. You mean you know your math and can't figure that winning depends on high percentage of successful picks rather than the number of them? If you're afraid the league has # number of the plays - play high probability games only doubling your wagers and the result will be same or better because less juice will be wasted! You don't understand the problem. NBA regular season ~1200 games -> Maximize your profit during this season. -> Equals if you are certain there is an edge, take it. Say you have 100 games, 5 of them you know you have a big edge, which equals to a 5% ROI, you bet them with a big stake. 10 others you are certain you have an edge, which equals to about 2% ROI, you bet them for your normal stake. 20 others you are not sure and think your edge is about 1% so you have to be very cautios to either skip them or play for a smaller amount. Now why only play the bets with the very big edge of 5% ROI and skip the rest? You just miss out on the money. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions
Besides that you are also confusing Return of Investment (ROI) and Risk of Ruin (ROR) which are two completely different things.
If you are betting odds of 10+ with 10u of your bankroll 100u at a 10% ROI your ROR is still a garbage load higher compared to a guy who is betting the same amounts at odds of ~2 at a ROI of 2%. ROR is all about money management and has absloutely nothing to do with ROI, if you can maximize your profit at a reasonable ROR you should alwas do it, because ROI won't buy you anything but profit will. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin: Your formula - as I understand it - applies only if all the games would be won. Otherwise one loss suffered would turn all your profits from other games into a non factor. What are you talking about??? I'm talking about standart bets on Spread & Totals. 5% ROI = win rate of ~53.8% on 1.952 odds 2% ROI = win rate of ~52.26% on 1.952 odds Fact is there are ~1200 regular season games in the NBA. Fact is you will skip many of those games if your goal is to have a high ROI, because you'll need a higher win % to achieve it. Fact is that means you won't maximize the profit during one season. That is all. I know basic math is not easy to understand for some of you ;( |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by FinesFan: Please don't post here like you know sh it about investment, if you prefer a ROI of 1 % instead of a ROI of 5 %, you are an idiot. You don't understand it. One season of NBA has a certain amount of games, you only have limited opportunities to put down wagers. Let's make a realistic and simple example. Guy A,B both with 100 unit banks. There are ~1.200 NBA games during one season. One guy finds only 50 bets and places 10u wagers each with a ROI of 5%. At the end of the season he has won 10*100*0.05 = 25u. The other guy finds 50 bets and makes those 10u plays at a ROI of 5% and 500 bets and places 5u wagers with a ROI of 2%. it's 25u and 500*5*0.02 = 50u in the end of the season. Obviously the 2nd guy is the better capper, despite having a lower ROI, he could just limit himself to take those 5% ROI bets, but he choses to also take the bets with smaller edges. Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin: You said it yourself - ROI is more important when your bankroll is limited. That's a point. And I never heard of anyone anywhere risking 10 Million to win 100K. That would be stupid. Trust me, if you had 10 Million, you would never risk it to make 100K. Too big of a risk. Same as you would not wager 100$ to win 1$. That is not how it works. You are not risking 10m at once, your risk can be very small sums at low edges that is all what happens. Profit is what counts and not ROI, if you can take smaller edges and safely make more profit in the end, you definitely should do it. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions
Obviously ROI is a bullshit stat and not important at all. Same goes for winning % and other useless stuff.
Only thing that counts is profit and proper money management. Say someone has a 5% ROI and picks ver cautios, makes big bets relative to the bankroll but only turns over 100.000 during an NBA season. He will make a profit of 5k. Someone else doesn't care at all about the stupid ROI, turns over 10.000.000 with proper money management and only has a ROI of 1%. He makes a profit of 100k a season. Notice the difference? |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions
First capper on this forum for a long time, who makes the impression that he knows what he is doing.
Hope you stay for a while. BOL |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Haha, what trend?
It's absolutely random you nut. Say you flip a coin 10 times each day, on average you can expect to get at least a day, where you have 7-3 or 8-2 or 9-1 head (chance for that is 17%). Say that day is Thursday. Now you conclusion is you are more likely to flip heads on Thursday? Dude, these kind of trends are RANDOM, you have no sample size of any significance, it's what the toot do to sound smart, but they really aren't. |
CMJohnson1 | 38 |
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The first one was an abberation, pace is fast they just don't shoot well and missing lots of open/easy shots.
But you might get lucky if it's a huge blowout they won't play the starters and you can get a low scoring 4th quater, but even that might not be enough. |
CMJohnson1 | 53 |
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Gonna be easy Over in the Knicks game
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CMJohnson1 | 53 |
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Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1: As far as the Lakers, they just don't have the talent right now to do much. Ahaha pure comedy from Johnson every time. Not enough talend made me laugh very hard They have tons of talent, just need a bit more games to really get good as a team. Sometimes I really wonder how you can pay attention to meaningless ATS trends, instead of trying to understand what really matters. I get where this is coming from, they lost to the Pacers on a poor shooting night, you are angry about it and lost all objectivity it seems. |
CMJohnson1 | 73 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Paidonjok: That is why it's called a prediction, man! If anyone can hit close to the exact mark, there won't be bums on the street! It's not how it works, a better prediction than his, is already out there. Vegas and the money wagered on this gave it to you, it was: Lakers 102 Pacers 94 It's a lot more accurate than his fantasy stuff. |
CMJohnson1 | 78 |
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Quote Originally Posted by CrazyMilkMan: Really like your predicted score on the LA-Ind game. You serious? He is making Lakers -15 pt favorite. That is just hilarious, miles off obviously. These score projections from Johnson are pure comedy. Doesn't respect the sharp lines at all, as if they are always off by more than 5 pts. Maybe once in a month, but not like every 3rd game on the card. |
CMJohnson1 | 78 |
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Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers: This is not the same ferrer, and this is also not the same fed,,, at this exact moment in time, I truly believe their 14-0 H2H record is irrellavent Likely my biggest play on a men's tennis total is on this match in my life,,, OVER 21.5 (-102) Also sprinkled: Ferrer to win first set (+337) Ferrer +1.5 sets (+150) I think ferrer will channel his inner Soderling,,, nobody beats the bulldog 15 times in a row They are exactly the same and Ferrer will lose 2-0. |
JB9569 | 14 |
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Hawks are losing games because of Josh Smith, should not take any jump shots at all, yet he shoots 20 ft+
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doube | 54 |
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"Josh Smith shoots a three."
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jhh123 | 31 |
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No a timeout was called, before Afflalo shoot the 3rd FT.
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LawsonJames | 7 |
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LawsonJames | 32 |
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