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gle: Two things I always ask myself are the following: Regarding chasing the dog or chasing the fav. What is the rate of return of the system. So for example if you started a BR of $1000 and were a $10 better, how much have I made off this system(either positive or neg). Second is how much have i had to wager to get to this positive or neg figure...and if this was effective. Is there a way to provide these numbers? if not this is something I can do during the off season. |
bettor2win | 2965 |
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thanks Dan....
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bettor2win | 2965 |
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question: Why was Stl not a pick for the chase. According to the covers power rankings, they would have qualified as a visitor pick...The separation was about 57?
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bettor2win | 2965 |
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I quickly went through and did some backed testing. Request someone confirm or deny these results of testing the RL line. Using last yrs closing odds listed on covers under the baseball scores matchup for RL. This excluded interleague..using the parameters -180 to -230. May 2011 wins 8 and loses 22 June 2011 8 wins and 5 loses July 2011 15 wins and 17 loses.
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irage | 957 |
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so then this RL strategy will close out tomorrow since interleague ends after tomorrow?
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irage | 957 |
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thanks for the help on the odds page...sure enough when u compare the live odds page that i listed with the matchup they are different...ok i got it...thanks a ton for the assist.
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irage | 957 |
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question regarding the filters and the plays today. the odds for milw closed at -115 and tor closed at -105. also Sf odds are -130 and LAA are +110. These are according to Covers MLB Baseball Live odds & betting lines. with the exception of some occasions, should the max line for both teams be -110? these plays passed the filters? |
irage | 957 |
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lol Beaver...trust me fully understand research sucks.....have come up with a great idea (or so i thought) only for it to crash and burn after back testing for 2 yr prior or even more,,,,if i find the system has an edge over all through out the yrs then i start to serious start to look at it...it would take me days to weeks to go back 2 yrs or farther.... Since baseball season is coming and that is when i start to do a ton of research, i dont see on the web site to get prior yr game predictions from kenpon...this is correct right? |
beaverfan23 | 25 |
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Beaver: Thanks for the time to keep up with the posting. It can be a grind after a while. Got a quick question. Is there a way to back test this system? Perhaps this is a selfish comment but previous results are a great tell on how well a money maker a system can be. Fully understand that previous results do not automatically mean success but over time can prove a valuable edge. In addition, if there is some idea of previous results this can help input on the size of wagers put in. Gambling is fun but it is not the best way make money. But if there is a true edge found with this system and proven with back testing, then it no longer becomes gambling but an informed wager. Innovation is a great way to create an edge and I truly hope you found something. Thanks |
beaverfan23 | 25 |
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hey my man, thanks for the reply yesterday...another question, are you playing all these picks or still in the tracking phase?
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Phi131 | 7 |
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phi thanks for sharing this system. Have to ask, but is it possible to back test this idea? If this systen is indeed has merit, it would be wise to be able to back test for any idea of its previous success or failure. It sucks to be out of the game based on a great idea which fails to produce results over the long term.
anyway not meaning to bash but i have had a ton of experience of following a system where i went broke b.c i did not take the time to back test. Since then i have learned some discipline, but it was something i would not want to repeat. |
Phi131 | 22 |
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ran some additional numbers regarding this system. Found the following Jan 2010 SU=-80 ATS=+84 hit at a 61% clip Feb 2010 SU=+90 ATS=+28 Jan 2009 SU=-143 ATS=-99
These were compiled with no games taking into consideration games that started at a pickem and then moved to at least a 1.5 line. Excluded any Ivy League games as well as Horizon league. There was no filter for any inj players.These are full games since no line for first half games. Each wager was based on $10.00 |
jw11 | 615 |
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To clarify the testing was for jan of 2010 not from this yr.
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jw11 | 615 |
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Not sure if anyone has been able to back test but started with Jan 10. For Jan based on post 264 filters, found the following results: Betting the dog SU:13 W or +239 on risking 10 against 32 loses or -320. Betting dog ATS: 26 W or +260 against 19 loses -209 This was using scoresandodds. Since did not know the first half lines unable to test for that filter. These results should be used as a guide since dont have a database and results completed by hand.
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jw11 | 615 |
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wish there was a way to back test esp since it helps determine if this is profitable
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PeterPoker | 7 |
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lol that sucks...was trying to come up with another idea to use the filter of over 9 to serve us better...
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therizz | 1158 |
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Rizz: Got an idea but i dont have a clue on how to research it. This is based on the filer o/u 9 and how it qualifies for a play. If the fav is the home team and you chase the under, is that a profitable. the same is the fav o/u 9 is the visit, if chase is made on the over is this profitable? |
therizz | 1158 |
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forgot to add these should be all 3 games series
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therizz | 1158 |
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ok please please check,...the plays appear to be Phil -167 8.5 LAD -163 8.5 Det -176 9.5 TX -194 10.5 |
therizz | 1158 |
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what about det, do they qualify?
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therizz | 1158 |
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