Citi Open Preview
The North American hard court swing begins in earnest this week in Washington, D.C. The Citi Open
kicks off the summer hard court series, a bit of a shift from the norm
as the ATP World Tour adjusted its schedule for the Rio Olympics. This
week’s tournament marks the fourth straight year that the D.C. field
will be comprised of 48 players. All 16 seeds get first round byes. John Isner
is scheduled to be the top seed this week, although his availability
may be a bit in question with the American having to play a second
rubber in Davis Cup play on Sunday. Rounding out the top four seeds are Gael Monfils, Bernard Tomic and Benoit Paire. Yes, the circus is in the Nation’s Capitol this week or at least scheduled to be.
Three more Americans are seeded inside the top eight with Steve Johnson (5), Jack Sock (6) and Sam Querrey (8) all in this week’s draw. The #7 seed is Alexander Zverev. Among the rest of the 16 seeds, there are three former D.C. finalists (Troicki, Muller, Baghdatis), a former champion (Dolgopolov) and three-time quarterfinalist Kevin Anderson.
Since the Citi Open expanded to 48 players in 2013, there have been a steady number of seeds falling early. Five fell in their first matches in 2013 and six each in 2014 and 2015. That included top seed Andy Murray last year. Seeds do still generally make up the business end of the tournament with nine of the last 12 semifinalists being seeded players. A non-seed has crashed that party though in each year from 2013-2015. The top seed has only made it as far as the semifinals once in the last three years. That was Juan Martin Del Potro who won the title as the top seed and a wildcard entry in 2013.
Citi Open Preview
The North American hard court swing begins in earnest this week in Washington, D.C. The Citi Open
kicks off the summer hard court series, a bit of a shift from the norm
as the ATP World Tour adjusted its schedule for the Rio Olympics. This
week’s tournament marks the fourth straight year that the D.C. field
will be comprised of 48 players. All 16 seeds get first round byes. John Isner
is scheduled to be the top seed this week, although his availability
may be a bit in question with the American having to play a second
rubber in Davis Cup play on Sunday. Rounding out the top four seeds are Gael Monfils, Bernard Tomic and Benoit Paire. Yes, the circus is in the Nation’s Capitol this week or at least scheduled to be.
Three more Americans are seeded inside the top eight with Steve Johnson (5), Jack Sock (6) and Sam Querrey (8) all in this week’s draw. The #7 seed is Alexander Zverev. Among the rest of the 16 seeds, there are three former D.C. finalists (Troicki, Muller, Baghdatis), a former champion (Dolgopolov) and three-time quarterfinalist Kevin Anderson.
Since the Citi Open expanded to 48 players in 2013, there have been a steady number of seeds falling early. Five fell in their first matches in 2013 and six each in 2014 and 2015. That included top seed Andy Murray last year. Seeds do still generally make up the business end of the tournament with nine of the last 12 semifinalists being seeded players. A non-seed has crashed that party though in each year from 2013-2015. The top seed has only made it as far as the semifinals once in the last three years. That was Juan Martin Del Potro who won the title as the top seed and a wildcard entry in 2013.
Seed Report
1. John Isner
If Isner comes to D.C. to play, his stay might be short lived. The
American played a pair of Davis Cup ties this weekend and was not
particularly awe inspiring in those matches. Combine that with cross
country travel and a short time to get used to court conditions and you
see where I am going. Isner is a three-time finalist at this event,
including last year. HIs career mark is 23-8, so no doubt that his game
jives with this surface and the tournament.
Still, scheduling is the real nightmare scenario here for Isner. He should benefit with a bye and then playing either Tim Smyczek or James Duckwroth in the 2nd round, but the third round could hold bigger trouble with the likes of Marcos Baghdatis, John Millman or Denis Kudla potentially in his path. Baghdatis in particular has been playing relatively well and could take advantage of a fatigued Isner.
2. Gael Monfils
If there is a more curious case than Monfils in general, it’s hard to
find. It is always difficult to know full health for Monfils and this is
especially true this week. Monfils did not participate in France’s
Davis Cup tie with the Czech Republic this weekend, saying he was not
fit to compete. Yet, here he is a few days later, set to take part in
this event. Perhaps the prep in D.C. helps focus him without the worry
of playing for country, but it is hard to like him in this spot. His
first match could be a big challenge with Yen-Hsun Lu potentially his
opponent. Lu plays a muddling Austin Krajicek in round one. Monf has won
both career meetings with Lu, but at less than 100 percent, the Chinese
veteran has plenty enough to pull off an upset against the Frenchman.
3. Bernard Tomic
The Aussie is 2-3 all-time in DC. This will be his 4th straight trip to
the Citi Open. Last year was his first in which he lost his first match.
He had won one and lost one the previous twp trips. He could be up
against it in the second round if Donald Young can get past Ernesto
Escobedo in round one. Young is 2-0 versus Tomic, with both wins coming
last season. The lefty will need to transition quickly from grass in
Newport, but he is certainly not scared of Tomic if he meets him. Tomic
most definitely should be on early upset alert if Young is the opponent.
4. Benoit Paire
I mean how much more fun can you get with your top four seeds than Paire
to finish that out? The Frenchman flopped in his opener in Hamburg on
clay this past week and now faces the quick switch to hard courts. He is
just 1-2 at this event. Paire will get a qualifier in his opener –
either Jared Donaldson or Vincent Millot – and that of course can be
tricky with qualifiers having match conditions already under their
belts. Check the match-up and never underestimate “I Don’t Care” Paire
and his knack for early exits.
5. Steve Johnson
Johnson has the least question marks of the seeds to this point as he
arrives with some good form from the grass court season. He crashed out
of Newport a bit earlier than some might have expected, but that may
actually benefit him here. Johnson is 7-4 in DC and made the semifinals
last season. He could benefit if Isner is gassed from Davis Cup play as
he sits in Isner’s quarter. There are some tough seeds like Baghdatis
and Troicki to navigate in that quarter, but another semifinal run isn’t
that far fetched. Johnson gets Frances Tiafoe or Adrian Mannarino to
open. Both can be tough, but Johnson’s increased confidence of late
could help him get past that tricky second rounder.
Seed Report
1. John Isner
If Isner comes to D.C. to play, his stay might be short lived. The
American played a pair of Davis Cup ties this weekend and was not
particularly awe inspiring in those matches. Combine that with cross
country travel and a short time to get used to court conditions and you
see where I am going. Isner is a three-time finalist at this event,
including last year. HIs career mark is 23-8, so no doubt that his game
jives with this surface and the tournament.
Still, scheduling is the real nightmare scenario here for Isner. He should benefit with a bye and then playing either Tim Smyczek or James Duckwroth in the 2nd round, but the third round could hold bigger trouble with the likes of Marcos Baghdatis, John Millman or Denis Kudla potentially in his path. Baghdatis in particular has been playing relatively well and could take advantage of a fatigued Isner.
2. Gael Monfils
If there is a more curious case than Monfils in general, it’s hard to
find. It is always difficult to know full health for Monfils and this is
especially true this week. Monfils did not participate in France’s
Davis Cup tie with the Czech Republic this weekend, saying he was not
fit to compete. Yet, here he is a few days later, set to take part in
this event. Perhaps the prep in D.C. helps focus him without the worry
of playing for country, but it is hard to like him in this spot. His
first match could be a big challenge with Yen-Hsun Lu potentially his
opponent. Lu plays a muddling Austin Krajicek in round one. Monf has won
both career meetings with Lu, but at less than 100 percent, the Chinese
veteran has plenty enough to pull off an upset against the Frenchman.
3. Bernard Tomic
The Aussie is 2-3 all-time in DC. This will be his 4th straight trip to
the Citi Open. Last year was his first in which he lost his first match.
He had won one and lost one the previous twp trips. He could be up
against it in the second round if Donald Young can get past Ernesto
Escobedo in round one. Young is 2-0 versus Tomic, with both wins coming
last season. The lefty will need to transition quickly from grass in
Newport, but he is certainly not scared of Tomic if he meets him. Tomic
most definitely should be on early upset alert if Young is the opponent.
4. Benoit Paire
I mean how much more fun can you get with your top four seeds than Paire
to finish that out? The Frenchman flopped in his opener in Hamburg on
clay this past week and now faces the quick switch to hard courts. He is
just 1-2 at this event. Paire will get a qualifier in his opener –
either Jared Donaldson or Vincent Millot – and that of course can be
tricky with qualifiers having match conditions already under their
belts. Check the match-up and never underestimate “I Don’t Care” Paire
and his knack for early exits.
5. Steve Johnson
Johnson has the least question marks of the seeds to this point as he
arrives with some good form from the grass court season. He crashed out
of Newport a bit earlier than some might have expected, but that may
actually benefit him here. Johnson is 7-4 in DC and made the semifinals
last season. He could benefit if Isner is gassed from Davis Cup play as
he sits in Isner’s quarter. There are some tough seeds like Baghdatis
and Troicki to navigate in that quarter, but another semifinal run isn’t
that far fetched. Johnson gets Frances Tiafoe or Adrian Mannarino to
open. Both can be tough, but Johnson’s increased confidence of late
could help him get past that tricky second rounder.
6. Jack Sock
Much like Isner, Sock will have to face the short turnaround from Davis
Cup play. He will benefit from what looks like an easier opener than
most of the higher seeds with Lucas Lacko or Canadian wildcard Denis
Shapovalov awaiting him in round two. Sock made the quarters here last
year and should carry with him some swagger after his Davis Cup heroics
this weekend. In a quarter with floundering types like Tomic and Grigor
Dimitrov and perhaps a worn out Newport finalist, Ivo Karlovic, Sock
could find himself making a run, but with the American having had to
play on Sunday again – temper your expectations some.
7. Alexander Zverev
The German teen’s first visit to D.C. last year was a good one as he
made a run to the quarterfinals. An early loss in Hamburg should have
given the 7th seed ample opportunity to prep for this week. His first
match in round two could be tough with Dudi Sela or Taylor Fritz
waiting. Still, Zverev has shown better game and consistency than both
and should be able to sneak through. Don’t be surprised though if he is
pushed to three sets and put on the brink of defeat a time or two.
8. Sam Querrey
Querrey is 7-7 all-time in DC with a semifinal run in 2012 ranking as
his best finish. The last three trips to this tournament, the American
lost his second match each time to the likes of Dimitrov, Kei Nishikori
and Marin Cilic. Nothing to be ashamed of in that bunch. He’ll get
fellow American Bjorn Fratangelo or a qualifier first-up. That likely
enables him to get out to a good start, but Fratangelo did stun Querrey
in the first round at Roland Garros this year. So, there is that to
consider.
Seeds to Watch
12. Grigor Dimitrov
Dimitrov won back-to-back matches at Wimbledon as he made the third
round. It marked his first back-to-back wins since he made the Istanbul
final in April. He had gone five straight tournaments without winning a
match. Will that be some sort of momentum builder for the last third of
the season. Don’t bank on it. Dimitrov has been more miss than hit in
this hard court swing the last few years. An opener against Daniel Evans
or Benjamin Becker feasibly looks like a win for him, but nothing is
certain with Dimitrov. A win there and we could witness a Dimitrov-Sock
third round match. Sock has won two of three, but all were competitive.
13. Ivo Karlovic
Karlovic lost his first match in DC last week and could face a bit of
fatigue after playing the Newport Final on Sunday. He faces either Sam
Groth or Brian Baker to open. That could help fend off the upset bug to
open. Groth continues to fight inconsistencies with landing his first
serve and that leaves him prone in most matches. Baker got his first win
in nearly three years last week in Newport, so expecting something big
if he is in the spot opposite of Karlovic might not be prudent.
16. Borna Coric
Another Davis Cup quick turnaround here with the Croatian facing cross
country travel and play on a surface that has been iffy for him at best.
This will be his first trip to DC and on outdoor hard courts, Coric is
just 8-8 this season and 25-29 in his young career. Four of those eight
wins came early in one tournament in Chennai, so he has struggled since
then. His opener comes against either Yuichi Sugita or Vasek Pospisil.
Pospisil would pose the bigger threat, but his 2016 says that Coric
might be safe. The Canadian is a putrid 5-17 this season and teetering
on falling outside of the Top 100.
6. Jack Sock
Much like Isner, Sock will have to face the short turnaround from Davis
Cup play. He will benefit from what looks like an easier opener than
most of the higher seeds with Lucas Lacko or Canadian wildcard Denis
Shapovalov awaiting him in round two. Sock made the quarters here last
year and should carry with him some swagger after his Davis Cup heroics
this weekend. In a quarter with floundering types like Tomic and Grigor
Dimitrov and perhaps a worn out Newport finalist, Ivo Karlovic, Sock
could find himself making a run, but with the American having had to
play on Sunday again – temper your expectations some.
7. Alexander Zverev
The German teen’s first visit to D.C. last year was a good one as he
made a run to the quarterfinals. An early loss in Hamburg should have
given the 7th seed ample opportunity to prep for this week. His first
match in round two could be tough with Dudi Sela or Taylor Fritz
waiting. Still, Zverev has shown better game and consistency than both
and should be able to sneak through. Don’t be surprised though if he is
pushed to three sets and put on the brink of defeat a time or two.
8. Sam Querrey
Querrey is 7-7 all-time in DC with a semifinal run in 2012 ranking as
his best finish. The last three trips to this tournament, the American
lost his second match each time to the likes of Dimitrov, Kei Nishikori
and Marin Cilic. Nothing to be ashamed of in that bunch. He’ll get
fellow American Bjorn Fratangelo or a qualifier first-up. That likely
enables him to get out to a good start, but Fratangelo did stun Querrey
in the first round at Roland Garros this year. So, there is that to
consider.
Seeds to Watch
12. Grigor Dimitrov
Dimitrov won back-to-back matches at Wimbledon as he made the third
round. It marked his first back-to-back wins since he made the Istanbul
final in April. He had gone five straight tournaments without winning a
match. Will that be some sort of momentum builder for the last third of
the season. Don’t bank on it. Dimitrov has been more miss than hit in
this hard court swing the last few years. An opener against Daniel Evans
or Benjamin Becker feasibly looks like a win for him, but nothing is
certain with Dimitrov. A win there and we could witness a Dimitrov-Sock
third round match. Sock has won two of three, but all were competitive.
13. Ivo Karlovic
Karlovic lost his first match in DC last week and could face a bit of
fatigue after playing the Newport Final on Sunday. He faces either Sam
Groth or Brian Baker to open. That could help fend off the upset bug to
open. Groth continues to fight inconsistencies with landing his first
serve and that leaves him prone in most matches. Baker got his first win
in nearly three years last week in Newport, so expecting something big
if he is in the spot opposite of Karlovic might not be prudent.
16. Borna Coric
Another Davis Cup quick turnaround here with the Croatian facing cross
country travel and play on a surface that has been iffy for him at best.
This will be his first trip to DC and on outdoor hard courts, Coric is
just 8-8 this season and 25-29 in his young career. Four of those eight
wins came early in one tournament in Chennai, so he has struggled since
then. His opener comes against either Yuichi Sugita or Vasek Pospisil.
Pospisil would pose the bigger threat, but his 2016 says that Coric
might be safe. The Canadian is a putrid 5-17 this season and teetering
on falling outside of the Top 100.
Quarters Preview
First Quarter: John Isner (1)
Isner’s body has become more fragile with age and he has been nursing a
sore knee off and on this season. Playing two best of five matches over
the weekend isn’t really the set-up you want for a deep run this week.
He will get a couple days likely to rest before he plays, but I will be
pretty shocked if the top seed makes big noise this week. That should
leave this quarter open for seeds Marcos Baghdatis, Viktor Troicki and
Steve Johnson to potentially make nice runs.
Baghdatis is 0-7 against Isner, so perhaps even a less than 100 percent Isner might have a shot to make it to the quarterfinals. Johnson and Troicki would be a good 3rd rounder with Troicki having beaten Johnson early in the year in Brisbane. Johnson is definitely playing better now and would figure to be counted on as the favorite to advance in that one. With Isner likely to be feeling the effects of Davis Cup play, this could indeed be Johnson’s quarter to shine in.
Keep an Eye On: Frances Tiafoe
The Maryland native gets a wildcard entry and comes in off an appearance
in the Winnetka Challenger final on an outdoor hard surface. The
18-year-old is just 1-3 in main draw matches at the ATP level this
season, but rarely has failed not to scare his opponent before losing.
He has a difficult draw with Adrian Mannarino to open, but the Frenchman
does not have a ton of experience playing this swing. Last year, he
went 0-3 in Atlanta, Montreal and Cincinnati. Perhaps Tiafoe can add
onto those woes. A win would net Tiafoe a showdown against 5th seed
Steve Johnson in round two.
Second Quarter: Bernard Tomic (3)
Tomic is another player who generally has not fared well on the North
American summer circuit. Tomic is the saddest about the demise of the
ATP event in Bogota that he had won the last two seasons, traditionally
in July. Outside of that tournament, he has been shaky at this time of
the year. The other seeds in this quarter include Sock, Dimitrov and
Karlovic. I touched on it earlier that Tomic could be one and done if
Donald Young can get into round two against him. That could open up the
top half of this quarter for for Young, but he would likely half to beat
a big server at some point and that has been an issue.
In the bottom half, a Sock-Dimitrov third round clash looms large. That is unless Dimitrov goes back into his one and done routine that was a big part of his first half of the season. Daniel Evans would be the tougher second round match for him rather than Benjamin Becker, so watch out for that one. Evans stretched him to three sets on grass in Eastbourne five years ago in their lone meeting. Evans can be tough, but rarely finds the pay window in main draws at this level on this surface. Still, it’s DImitrov version 2016. Sock looks like a real threat perhaps to come out of this quarter if he can harness his Davis Cup mojo and bring it to DC.
Keep an Eye On: Donald Young
The lefty has had another fairly mediocre campaign, but comes in off a
semifinal run in Newport that was his best rest of the season. Young has
stepped up before during this part of the season. Last year he made
that magical fourth round run at the U.S. Open and two years ago, he
made the semis here in DC where he beat a trio of seeded players before
losing to Milos Raonic. Big serves give him fits on quicker surfaces, so
seeing someone like Karlovic if he happens to make it to the third
round would not be great for him. Still, if some luck falls his way he
could perhaps make the quarters. Neither Sock nor Dimitrov is a good
match-up for him though.
Quarters Preview
First Quarter: John Isner (1)
Isner’s body has become more fragile with age and he has been nursing a
sore knee off and on this season. Playing two best of five matches over
the weekend isn’t really the set-up you want for a deep run this week.
He will get a couple days likely to rest before he plays, but I will be
pretty shocked if the top seed makes big noise this week. That should
leave this quarter open for seeds Marcos Baghdatis, Viktor Troicki and
Steve Johnson to potentially make nice runs.
Baghdatis is 0-7 against Isner, so perhaps even a less than 100 percent Isner might have a shot to make it to the quarterfinals. Johnson and Troicki would be a good 3rd rounder with Troicki having beaten Johnson early in the year in Brisbane. Johnson is definitely playing better now and would figure to be counted on as the favorite to advance in that one. With Isner likely to be feeling the effects of Davis Cup play, this could indeed be Johnson’s quarter to shine in.
Keep an Eye On: Frances Tiafoe
The Maryland native gets a wildcard entry and comes in off an appearance
in the Winnetka Challenger final on an outdoor hard surface. The
18-year-old is just 1-3 in main draw matches at the ATP level this
season, but rarely has failed not to scare his opponent before losing.
He has a difficult draw with Adrian Mannarino to open, but the Frenchman
does not have a ton of experience playing this swing. Last year, he
went 0-3 in Atlanta, Montreal and Cincinnati. Perhaps Tiafoe can add
onto those woes. A win would net Tiafoe a showdown against 5th seed
Steve Johnson in round two.
Second Quarter: Bernard Tomic (3)
Tomic is another player who generally has not fared well on the North
American summer circuit. Tomic is the saddest about the demise of the
ATP event in Bogota that he had won the last two seasons, traditionally
in July. Outside of that tournament, he has been shaky at this time of
the year. The other seeds in this quarter include Sock, Dimitrov and
Karlovic. I touched on it earlier that Tomic could be one and done if
Donald Young can get into round two against him. That could open up the
top half of this quarter for for Young, but he would likely half to beat
a big server at some point and that has been an issue.
In the bottom half, a Sock-Dimitrov third round clash looms large. That is unless Dimitrov goes back into his one and done routine that was a big part of his first half of the season. Daniel Evans would be the tougher second round match for him rather than Benjamin Becker, so watch out for that one. Evans stretched him to three sets on grass in Eastbourne five years ago in their lone meeting. Evans can be tough, but rarely finds the pay window in main draws at this level on this surface. Still, it’s DImitrov version 2016. Sock looks like a real threat perhaps to come out of this quarter if he can harness his Davis Cup mojo and bring it to DC.
Keep an Eye On: Donald Young
The lefty has had another fairly mediocre campaign, but comes in off a
semifinal run in Newport that was his best rest of the season. Young has
stepped up before during this part of the season. Last year he made
that magical fourth round run at the U.S. Open and two years ago, he
made the semis here in DC where he beat a trio of seeded players before
losing to Milos Raonic. Big serves give him fits on quicker surfaces, so
seeing someone like Karlovic if he happens to make it to the third
round would not be great for him. Still, if some luck falls his way he
could perhaps make the quarters. Neither Sock nor Dimitrov is a good
match-up for him though.
Third Quarter: Benoit Paire (4)
This is a very interesting quarter with the best talent probably in 7th
seed Alexander Zverev. In his half of the quarter, he has it tough with
Sela or Fritz to open. Kevin Anderson (9) could be waiting in round
three if he can get past Malek Jaziri or Reilly Opelka. That could be a
nice spot for Opelka to get his 2nd ATP win with Jaziri coming off Davis
Cup duty.
As for Anderson, 2016 has been a disaster with a 5-10 record. Injuries plagued him early and he just has not found much of a rhythm since returning in May. However, this swing has often been a boost to his season. DC has been good to him as well with three quarterfinals in his last four trips. If seeding holds, he would have a shot to exact some revenge on Zverev who took him down in his opener here last year.
In Paire’s half, you would think the Frenchman had an advantageous draw. He gets a qualifier first, but nothing is simple with Paire. He could well lose there. Hard courts have seen him go 7-8 this year and he remains under .500 for his career on the surface. Gilles Muller could be one to watch as the 14th seed if he isn’t burdened from playing the Newport final on Sunday. Muller has been pretty damn solid during the grass swing and will look to parlay that into hard court success. If his serve is firing, he’s a threat to win a few here. Or he could flame out early with his legs gone from Newport.
Keep an Eye On: Taylor Fritz
He’s cooled off since his red hot start to 2016, but a return to hard
courts could find him back on the fast track to success. Fritz had a
decent Spring on hard courts, but may have felt the pressure of the
increased media hype on him. That has died down and now, he should be
able to concentrate on improving and getting some positive results. He
has a winnable opener, but a tricky one as well against Dudi Sela. A win
there would see him battle Zverev. These two play in juniors at the
2013 U.S. Open with Zverev winning in straight sets. It would be
interesting now to see if Fritz could pull off the upset as Zverev has
zoomed ahead of him and already has stamped his name inside the Top 30
as he looks to climb into the Top 20.
Fourth Quarter: Gael Monfils (2)
Another weird, wacky and totally wild and open quarter it would appear.
Monfils’ health is the number question here. After that you look to
seeds Sam Querrey, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Borna Coric. Querrey could be
the one to watch here. He’s coming off arguably his best run of results
in his career in making his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon.
The real question is whether or not he can continue that hot streak. He
has a workable draw with Dolgopolov seeded to meet him in round three.
The American leads that series 3-2, having won three straight.
In the bottom of the quarter, Monfils really cannot be counted on to do much. He could pull a typical Monfils-ian type of start, looking great in his first match and then being completely unable to do anything the next match. Or he could simply be stuck in neutral to start. Until he proves his health, I would side with the 2nd seed not being longed to do much at this tournament. Lu is one to monitor here as he could sneak through if Monfils isn’t healthy enough. Whomever squeezes out of that part of the draw could be the favorite to get to the quarters. Coric is in this part of the quarter, but he could be suffering from Davis Cup travel lag and isn’t the greatest on this surface yet.
Keep an Eye On: Yen-Hsun Lu
Rendy Lu is one of those sneaky vets who can just ball and make life
difficult for an opponent with grit and determination. His opener comes
against a woefully out-of-form Austin Krajicek and then as mentioned, it
could be Monfils in round two. If Lu navigates through those two
matches, the draw is pretty open for him to further surprise. There has
been an unseeded semifinalist in D.C. each year since the field
expanded. Lu could continue that trend if all the puzzle pieces fall the
right way.
Third Quarter: Benoit Paire (4)
This is a very interesting quarter with the best talent probably in 7th
seed Alexander Zverev. In his half of the quarter, he has it tough with
Sela or Fritz to open. Kevin Anderson (9) could be waiting in round
three if he can get past Malek Jaziri or Reilly Opelka. That could be a
nice spot for Opelka to get his 2nd ATP win with Jaziri coming off Davis
Cup duty.
As for Anderson, 2016 has been a disaster with a 5-10 record. Injuries plagued him early and he just has not found much of a rhythm since returning in May. However, this swing has often been a boost to his season. DC has been good to him as well with three quarterfinals in his last four trips. If seeding holds, he would have a shot to exact some revenge on Zverev who took him down in his opener here last year.
In Paire’s half, you would think the Frenchman had an advantageous draw. He gets a qualifier first, but nothing is simple with Paire. He could well lose there. Hard courts have seen him go 7-8 this year and he remains under .500 for his career on the surface. Gilles Muller could be one to watch as the 14th seed if he isn’t burdened from playing the Newport final on Sunday. Muller has been pretty damn solid during the grass swing and will look to parlay that into hard court success. If his serve is firing, he’s a threat to win a few here. Or he could flame out early with his legs gone from Newport.
Keep an Eye On: Taylor Fritz
He’s cooled off since his red hot start to 2016, but a return to hard
courts could find him back on the fast track to success. Fritz had a
decent Spring on hard courts, but may have felt the pressure of the
increased media hype on him. That has died down and now, he should be
able to concentrate on improving and getting some positive results. He
has a winnable opener, but a tricky one as well against Dudi Sela. A win
there would see him battle Zverev. These two play in juniors at the
2013 U.S. Open with Zverev winning in straight sets. It would be
interesting now to see if Fritz could pull off the upset as Zverev has
zoomed ahead of him and already has stamped his name inside the Top 30
as he looks to climb into the Top 20.
Fourth Quarter: Gael Monfils (2)
Another weird, wacky and totally wild and open quarter it would appear.
Monfils’ health is the number question here. After that you look to
seeds Sam Querrey, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Borna Coric. Querrey could be
the one to watch here. He’s coming off arguably his best run of results
in his career in making his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon.
The real question is whether or not he can continue that hot streak. He
has a workable draw with Dolgopolov seeded to meet him in round three.
The American leads that series 3-2, having won three straight.
In the bottom of the quarter, Monfils really cannot be counted on to do much. He could pull a typical Monfils-ian type of start, looking great in his first match and then being completely unable to do anything the next match. Or he could simply be stuck in neutral to start. Until he proves his health, I would side with the 2nd seed not being longed to do much at this tournament. Lu is one to monitor here as he could sneak through if Monfils isn’t healthy enough. Whomever squeezes out of that part of the draw could be the favorite to get to the quarters. Coric is in this part of the quarter, but he could be suffering from Davis Cup travel lag and isn’t the greatest on this surface yet.
Keep an Eye On: Yen-Hsun Lu
Rendy Lu is one of those sneaky vets who can just ball and make life
difficult for an opponent with grit and determination. His opener comes
against a woefully out-of-form Austin Krajicek and then as mentioned, it
could be Monfils in round two. If Lu navigates through those two
matches, the draw is pretty open for him to further surprise. There has
been an unseeded semifinalist in D.C. each year since the field
expanded. Lu could continue that trend if all the puzzle pieces fall the
right way.
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