THE CHASE LOUNGE...

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: THE CHASE LOUNGE...
SierraNevada PM SierraNevada
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:51:02 AM
Thank you guys for the profitable season.
bikemcr PM bikemcr
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Posted: 10/30/2012 7:34:30 AM
Ok . NBA champs 2-8 ATS the first game the following season including all of the last 6 years . You were right Angle .
s1win21 PM s1win21
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Posted: 10/30/2012 9:34:09 AM
Hey guys, just wanted to let you know I started a thread on the NBA section based on under and dog chases. As we all know there is no guarantees but I am going to do my best to post some winners, not only for me but for all of you that helped put me in the right direction during baseball season. Please tread lighthly as I would hate to contribute to someone losing $$ and feel free to offer your opinions/suggestions. A lot of it will be based on trends obviously and the fact that after back tracking through teams records ATS and O/U over the years, many are around .500 mark. Trying to capitalize on that.
mjnorman59 PM mjnorman59
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Posted: 10/30/2012 10:17:01 AM
Ok, so back to my NBA thought.  Will have to run all teams and numbers but here goes.

Looking at Miami last year.  
Total O/U record 25-39
Home O/U 10-23
Away O/U 15-16

33 away games - 11 3 game sets under hit at least 1x in 10 of 11
1st game 5-6
2nd game 5-1
3rd game 0-1

33 home games - 11 3 game sets under hit at least 1x in 11 of 11
1st game  6-5
2nd game 3-2
3rd game 2-0

So for Miami, playing every 3 game set @ $100 to win:
Win = $2100
Loss = $826
Profit = $1,274

not a big sample, but interesting to see if some teams hit more than others.  Will look prior years with full seasons.

maybe 3 game sets against division opponents, conference opponents.

Or chase the season series against 1 opponent?
Last year Miami has at least a 3 game series against 14 teams
14-0 at least 1 game under 
8-6 first game
6-0 second game

Chases could overlap and be all over the place but may be worth a shot.

Like MLB, would have to see the season develop and then if team is 5-0 (after 15 games home or away, about 36% of season) in 3 games sets - might be a season trend developing?  Can't remember the benchmark for the MLB Trendz, but thought 90% (of 9-1 on series) made the trend list.

Wonder about 1H or 2H lines too.

Will be back with more later.
FPC PM FPC
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Posted: 10/30/2012 10:49:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ChuyenTinhDenDo:

Since 2009 upto last season.

query string: AO and pp:AU and p:AU
O/U: 541-0-0 (14.1) avg total: 193.0

Those numbers are not predictive b4 the game but rather that record is compiled after the games are completed, thus the undefeated record.
campjenkins PM campjenkins
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Posted: 10/30/2012 10:55:16 AM
McShady/Semper/Angle   

Thanks to you and the rest of the Chasers crew for a great MLB season, fellas.  

I'll be bouncing around mostly between the NBA and NCAAB forums now that baseball is over. 

Chasers Lounge 2013 will be epic...already looking forward to it  
mjnorman59 PM mjnorman59
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:13:04 AM
Stats on Boston:

2011 - 14 at least 3 games series against same team
14-0 at least one game went under
10-4 game 1
3-1 game 2
1-0 game 3

some series spread over weeks/months

focusing on teams tonight first.


mjnorman59 PM mjnorman59
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:15:08 AM
Looking like my sets of 3 (3 home/3 away) may hit 80-90% of the time, just above BE.  Focusing on same opponent over the season now.  Seems to be a higher chase win %.
Go_Nads PM Go_Nads
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:37:00 AM
mj, so are you looking at 3 game series Team A vs Team B (even if that "series" takes months to play out)

Or are you just looking at 3 game sets (regardless if they are home/away or a combo)

Or are you looking at 3 game sets that are either home or away, but not a combo?

Would love to help you get some additional data, but I'm lost on which of the above you are looking at, or if you are looking at a combo of them.
mjnorman59 PM mjnorman59
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:38:43 AM
Boston 2010
14 3+ game series
14-0 Under at least 1x
7/3/4 gm 1/2/3


randognsac PM randognsac
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:40:47 AM
Good work mjnorman59. Interested in seeing what you come up with.
mjnorman59 PM mjnorman59
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:45:09 AM
@Go_Nads

I first started looking at 3 game sets in a row (different opponents) and could have an away chase and a home chase going same time.  That seemed maybe 80 - 90 % on avg.

Now I am looking at 3 game series regardless of site or time, so TEAM A vs TEAM B for the season and could take months.

My stats above for BOS 2010 and 2011 are using the TEAM A vs TEAM B chase, regardless of site or time to complete chase.

So right now I was looking at BOS v MIA.
In 2012 the will play 4 times on 10/30, 1/27, 3/18 and 4/12.  
So the chase would be GM 1 10/30, GM 2 1/27, GM 3 3/18.

Thanks for helping, hopefully we can find something worth the risk.  
Go_Nads PM Go_Nads
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:56:22 AM
So when looking at TEAM A vs TEAM B (no matter the length of time it takes to complete a 3 game series) are you looking at previous years for the exact same matchup (in this case Boston vs Miami) or are you just looking at 3 game series for Boston vs any opponent?

Trying to think of an easy SDQL query to help put some figures together.
Jonesin PM Jonesin
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:56:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Newfie_Bullet:

KC +8.5 set number

 

NCAAFB only

6.5 set number 9-0 on the dog ATS

6-4 dog M/L

 6-4 O/U

Stanford 13 @ Wash 17 U

WV 48 @ Texas 45 O

Kansas ST 27 @ 21 Iowa state U

NEB 29 @ NW 28 U

SouFla 25 @ Louvile 27 U

Mich St 16 @ Wisky 13 U

UCLA 45 @ Ariz St 43 O

Florida 9 @ Georgia 16 U

USC 36 @ Arizona 39 O

Just passsing it along.

 

At my book I have Texas and Tulsa at +6.5..Miss st is at +6.

s1win21 PM s1win21
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:00:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mjnorman59:

@Go_Nads

I first started looking at 3 game sets in a row (different opponents) and could have an away chase and a home chase going same time.  That seemed maybe 80 - 90 % on avg.

Now I am looking at 3 game series regardless of site or time, so TEAM A vs TEAM B for the season and could take months.

My stats above for BOS 2010 and 2011 are using the TEAM A vs TEAM B chase, regardless of site or time to complete chase.

So right now I was looking at BOS v MIA.
In 2012 the will play 4 times on 10/30, 1/27, 3/18 and 4/12.  
So the chase would be GM 1 10/30, GM 2 1/27, GM 3 3/18.

Thanks for helping, hopefully we can find something worth the risk.  

Interesting stuff. I'm looking something similar. One thing you may or may not want to consider with the chase that I have been tossing around is what to do about an under chase if one of the games goes into OT causing it to go over. In years past I have continued the chase but it caused it to go a little longer than I would like so I'm thinking that for this year, if the game went under in regulation, but over in OT probably going to end the chase. Just a thought I'd figured I'd share.

mjnorman59 PM mjnorman59
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:04:31 PM
To expand further:

Over the last 2 years BOS has gone under over 60% of the time against 6 of the 14 teams Boston has had a 3 (or 4) game series against.

ATL 4 of 6
IND 5 of 8
MIL 4 of 6
TOR 5 of 8
MIA 5 of 8
Nets 6 of 7

maybe start with those to chase a season series under. 
s1win21 PM s1win21
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:11:35 PM

@mj

Good stuff. Any thoughts of taking it a step further and just concentrating chases in the Eastern Conference to limit exposure?

mjnorman59 PM mjnorman59
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:18:20 PM
@s1

Haven't run all the teams yet,  maybe the west would be over chases.  Would try to focus on the high percentage matchups and then see how the season develops to see if historical trends are holding or new ones are developing.

Haven't bet NBA much so trying to build historical trends quickly, since I was focused on MLB.  Looking at teams that have stayed relatively intact first.  Don't think trends would say much on a team that got reshuffled from last year.

mjnorman59 PM mjnorman59
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:20:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Go_Nads:

So when looking at TEAM A vs TEAM B (no matter the length of time it takes to complete a 3 game series) are you looking at previous years for the exact same matchup (in this case Boston vs Miami) or are you just looking at 3 game series for Boston vs any opponent?

Trying to think of an easy SDQL query to help put some figures together.

Was looking at BOS v MIA, BOS v IND, BOS v NYK, etc.


s1win21 PM s1win21
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:44:23 PM
Makes sense...thanks and good luck. I like how you are starting with Bos. Obviously things change from year to year but in recent years they really seem like an under type team with their style of play. Plus that division can be offensively challenged at times.
mjnorman59 PM mjnorman59
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:46:52 PM
Update on MIA stats:

2010 3 (or 4) game against same opponent:
14 series
14-0 at least 1 game went under, but 1x it went to gm 4
8/4/1/1 gm 1/2/3/4

So my limited analysis on MIA and BOS - more to come. Over the last 2 years, regular season, games have gone under the total 5 of 8.

My first chase of NBA season is chase the under on BOS v MIA.  GM 1 tonight, GM 2 1/27/13 if necessary, GM 3 3/18/13 if necessary.

Maybe more trends on other teams and hoping I can find 3 or 4 for each team. 

heegs PM heegs
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Posted: 10/30/2012 1:22:46 PM
Hey Nefie,

I'm seeing Kansas St at -9.5, should that be a play?
heegs PM heegs
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Posted: 10/30/2012 1:27:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by heegs:

Hey Nefie,

I'm seeing Kansas St at -9.5, should that be a play?


I swear I typed Newfie haha!
tailing PM tailing
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Posted: 10/30/2012 1:29:41 PM
all u guys on the east coast hang in there. our thoughts are with you
Go_Nads PM Go_Nads
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quote#100
Posted: 10/30/2012 1:44:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by heegs:

Hey Nefie,

I'm seeing Kansas St at -9.5, should that be a play?

The only line that determines if a play is a Set Line play is the fixed line that is posted at http://sportselect.wclc.com/lists/ (under Point Spreads).
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