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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: Renan Barao -185 to defeat Urijah Faber.
GunShard
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#1
Posted: 7/17/2012 9:28:25 PM

I made this bet last week, the lines have moved since then.

Barao is a well rounded striker similar to Jose Aldo, Erick Silva and Dominick Cruz. Barao trains with Aldo at Nova Uniao.
Faber is a well rounded fighter that trains at Team Alpha Male.
Barao has the advantages in technique and striking. Barao will win by TKO or Decision.
Faber has the advantages in power and submission. Faber will win by Submission.
Both fighters have advantages in speed.

The last opponent Faber fought that was similar to Barao is Jose Aldo.
If this fight is similar to the Aldo vs Faber fight. Barao will attack Faber's legs just like how Aldo did, but does not hit as hard as Aldo.
Faber can finish the fight by  guillotine but will have trouble attempting strikes and takedowns if Fabers legs are injured like it was against Aldo.
If Faber takes Barao to the ground and Barao fails defend against Faber's submissions, then Barao could lose.
Members of Team Alpha Male are grappling experts. Barao is less likely to defeat Faber by Submission.
In the Barao vs Jorgensen fight, Jorgensen failed all of his takedown attempts. If Barao can defend the takedown against Faber, then Faber is forced to keep this fight standing.
Both fighters have heart and have never been knocked out.

I don't know if Barao has cardio to last a 5 round fight. Barao is 25 years old and Faber is 33 years old.

The statistics give Barao the edge over Faber:
http://hosteddb.fightmetric.com/fights/index/3942

Barao should be a -300 favorite.
If Barao wins, I see a Barao vs Cruz main event happening in a future event.

Barao highlight video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJgmqQp3G_c

Faber vs Cruz highlight video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VwaGG-5XZc

I also have this bet on a parlay with Hector Lombard.


"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.
If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.
If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle." -Sun Tzu, the Art Of war

"All our Knowledge begins with the senses, proceeds then to the understanding, and ends with reason. There is nothing higher than reason." -Immanuel Kant

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whipton send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 7/17/2012 9:44:32 PM
over
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sharpstick send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: M Resort |
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#3
Posted: 7/17/2012 10:33:43 PM
You're only kidding yourself if you think Barao is similar to either Aldo or Silva striking.  
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CTROB send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: The Quad |
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#4
Posted: 7/17/2012 11:29:54 PM
You should be careful with fight metrics bro. They have their place but Baraos stats are only sampled from 5 fights where as Faber is over 15. Always look at the fights that are analyzed and his opponents at that time. It could be missing some key information vs a solid wrestler. 


And be careful and trying to glean information from highlight reels. I keep every fight In a personal collection to watch later at least get a UFC vault account so u can watch entire fights. 
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#5
Posted: 7/18/2012 12:31:07 AM

i am more concerned with a fighters last two or three fights than a fighters last 15(body of work) when betting mma.

a good case in point is kongo who i think may be damaged goods. he was barely hit with a mark hunt unleveraged counter left hook and was technically from that point out of the fight as well as almost being ko'd by barry.

imo, analyzing a ufc fighters fight from two or three years back will more than likely be irrelevant as most fighters are nowhere near what they once where especially if they suffered injuries or (t)ko's.

ufc peaks are generally very short-lived.

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#6
Posted: 7/18/2012 12:32:25 PM
What you're saying Is exactly right that's why I'm saying don't hold too much stock in stats from fight metrics if the information is incomplete. That information should be taken from your breakdown of watching the fights. 

Let's say a welterweight shows tremendous take down stats on fight metrics. But his only two fights were against Papy Abedi and Dan Hardy. You really have to pay attention to the sample size of statistics like that for them to hold any merit. 

I think you took my statement as an indictment on your capping it wasn't.  If you look again I'm just saying using fight metrics as a statistical tool is dangerous becaus in statistics sample size is the most important factor to accurately depict variance and anomalies. 

As long as you're watching full film of course recent fights are more relevant. But when it comes to the type of stats that fight metrics offer, they can tell a story on a fighter of what they really are. But of the story is written partial information. It's worthless. 
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#7
Posted: 7/18/2012 2:07:47 PM

a slight change of topic... I really agree on fighters becoming damaged goods, and Kongo MAY be getting to that point. However, he has also displayed good recovery ability. But more importantly, give Hunt some credit for having dynamite in his hands.

I've seen a lot of fighters go down on apparant grazing shots. They likely are connecting much harder than it appears

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ShadyDude send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: MGM Grand |
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#8
Posted: 7/19/2012 1:16:14 AM
^ Real talk.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#9
Posted: 7/19/2012 1:17:47 AM
Well put.
Posted using a mobile device.
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GunShard
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#10
Posted: 7/22/2012 1:35:55 AM
Congrats to all the Barao bettors!
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shaps17
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#11
Posted: 7/22/2012 4:21:37 AM

He wanted it so badly, nothing was going to get into his way of winning that belt
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GunShard
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#12
Posted: 7/22/2012 7:55:00 AM

"Barao has the advantages in technique and striking. Barao will win by TKO or Decision."

I predicted the outcome before the fight even started. Gotta find more fights like these.

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GunShard
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#13
Posted: 7/25/2012 1:45:32 AM

Sure, Barao has weaker striking skills than Aldo and Silva. But it was enough to defeat Faber.

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