prime example of the type of person the books make money on.
heavy money is on boston ML, but the ML is so ridiculously high, you have to think that the books are encouraging it. The only way I would ever play boston ML is if I was a huge boston homer that wanted only to win if my team won, but that's not the case and i'm not a sucker. Again I will point to the celtics dismal, now 1-7 SU 2-6 ATS record in closeout games, and compare it to the lakers who are 10-1 SU in closeout games, irrespective of location, over the last 3 years. So that tells me that the lakers ML is a solid bet, problem is, that's a pretty low return investment to make and I already have two series bets for the lakers to win the series (at -190 before game 1 and -135 after game 2) so essentially i already have the moneyline locked in for cheaper.
So to look at another critical angle, let's analyze the celtics situation. First off, they just lost one of their starters. Conventional wisdom says that you play a team in the game immediately following the loss of a starter. (best examples off the top of my head, KG prior to game 2 against miami, or last year, dwight howard prior to their game 6 closeout in philly, or jazz prior to game 2 in denver after the loss of mehmet okur again this year... all ATS covers by the team who just lost a key player, or even another one, after the lakers lost kobe earlier this year, they went into portland as 2 point favorites and won (and covered)for the first time in portland in about 11 tries)
anyways, point being, that theorum has held VERY true in my experience and it makes taking the lakers laying the points a no go and piques my interest in playing the celtics.
Then you have the celtics as the 2nd best road team in the game during the regular season, they were 5-3 ATS/SU and one and half point from being 6-2 ats in the postseason prior to their series with the lakers where they are now 1-2 ATS in LA, making me think that should come close to evening out.
Another theorum I was taught was to take a team after a nationally televised blowout. Now you have to be careful with that one in the playoffs, because sometimes a team just has the other teams number, but in this case, I think that is untrue as boston came back from less of a blowout in game 2 to win SU.
Then there's spread placement. Going into game 6 as 6.5 point underdogs, they get blownout, and yet it stays the same afterwards, and then to adjust to the loss of perkins, the books only move the line up by .5? Something seems too fishy about that.
I think this game is going to be epic and the points will play. I think the lakers win, but by 2 to 4.
All said and done, I'm leaning on boston and the points, but I will NOT play the ML as I think there's a greater chance that I lose the bet on the points than there is that the celtics win SU.
Another angle of interest is that the lakers are 1-2-1 ATS in the first quarter of these elimination games at home, making the first quarter a decent look, and the lakers at the half is another one that fits the numbers, but i have a hard time thinking that they are going to be up by more than 4 against a desparate celtics team who is actually almost equally good in the first half this year.
So with that said, I think that the safest plays are on the celtics, but I firmly believe the lakers will win this one, I just think that 7 points is WAY too many to give in this situation