Overall : 19-6-0 +127.04 units
Ray Rice UNDER 97.5 Rushing Yards (10 units to win 9.09)
This might not seem like the smartest play, but Ray Rice's production following a game where he rushed for 100+ yards is pedestrian at best. In his career, following games where he rushed for 100+ yards, Rice averages 62.6 rushing yards per game for an average of 3.9 per carry. Even more glaring is that he has only scored 1 rushing touchdown over these 14 games. Clearly, this is a risk given how much of a workhorse he is, but I think the Browns D is better thanm advertised. Historically, Rice has done well against the Browns D averaging 96 yds per game over 8 games in his career. But don't let the split stats fool you.. We all know Rice shredded the Browns last year for 204 yards, which that in itself makes this play scary, but take that game out and he averages just 81 yards on the ground vs the Browns in the other 7 games. I think the number is set high based on last year's performance and the belief that the Browns are not a good defense. He might go off again, but I'll trust the historical numbers and invest the Browns D improved where went wrong last year.