Linesmakers did a really good job with the opening line on this one. Saints have been the most publicly backed team all year getting over 80% of the bets on almost all of their games. Now with all the hype that the Saints suck on the road on ESPN, they open the line giving +3.5 to the 49ers @ home making everyone think they are making a sharp bet betting on the 49ers getting 3.5 going against a 'shitty' road team. They also got 70% of people to bite on the +170 ML. IMO too much is being made of the Saints woeful troubles on the Road. Does everyone not remember what the Saints did in Lambeau in week 1? 419 passing yards, 34 points and 1 yard away from going into overtime. This Saints team is much better then that week 1 matchup in Lambeau but lets look at the 49ers first. Yes the 49ers have the best rush defense in the league but take a look at how they've fared against pass-heavy teams:
Dallas: 432 Yards
Philadelphia: 416 Yards
Detroit: 293 Yards (Shitty run team, completely one-dimensional)
Giants: 311 Yards (Worst run team, completely one-dimensional)
Pittsburgh: 330 Yards (One legged Big Ben)
On the other side of the ball the 49ers will try to rely on Frank Gore to set up 3rd and shorts for Alex Smith. The Saints started off as one of the worst run defenses in the league yielding 5.0 YPC but have turned up the heat in time for the playoffs yeilding closer to 4.0 YPC since their bye week. Frank Gore is not that good of a RB he's old and his knees are shot. Alex Smith will have to do a lot more in this game than people think. I like my chances with Drew Brees and his 862 weopons going up against Alex Smith and his 3 weopons. Saints defense is a bit underrated IMO. Yes they give up a lot of yards but thats because they get up and down the field faster than anyone. Look at the Packers and Patriots defense and tell me theirs are any different.
-Teams coming off a bye in the playoffs are 12-20 ATS
New Orleans Saints -3 (-135)
8.1 units to win 6 units
Playoff YTD: (5-0) +20 units
2010-2011 Playoffs: (15-8) +24.35 units