Have you ever looked a line that was SOOOOO square that you began to question just what exactly the linemakers intention was? As I look at the Toronto Raptors +1.5 tomorrow against Philly, I keep asking myself that question. What exactly do the books want people to do in this situation?
Here's a little breakdown on the matchup from CrazyMilkMan's thread. I thought he summed it up perfectly in the first paragraph... so I stole it.
Seriously, why are they even faves in this spot? Raptors just got the Turk back and balled over San Antonio and Orlando the other night. They won 7 of their last 8 games, credit to CB4 who's playing like an MVP out there. Philly is off a disappointing loss to the Wizards, giving the game up in the final quarter.
Damn, I couldn't have said it better myself. This situation is begging you to take the Raptors. So much so that people begin to question whether or not it's actually the right play. Trap play, Bait play... all those terms start flying around when lines like this come out.
I'm really getting a strange sense that the books want people to second guess this spread. Perhaps make the line so enticing to people that they fear taking it. Maybe that's how the books intend to steer people off of Toronto tomorrow when in reality, they know the Raptors are the best bet.
Have you ever looked a line that was SOOOOO square that you began to question just what exactly the linemakers intention was? As I look at the Toronto Raptors +1.5 tomorrow against Philly, I keep asking myself that question. What exactly do the books want people to do in this situation?
Here's a little breakdown on the matchup from CrazyMilkMan's thread. I thought he summed it up perfectly in the first paragraph... so I stole it.
Seriously, why are they even faves in this spot? Raptors just got the Turk back and balled over San Antonio and Orlando the other night. They won 7 of their last 8 games, credit to CB4 who's playing like an MVP out there. Philly is off a disappointing loss to the Wizards, giving the game up in the final quarter.
Damn, I couldn't have said it better myself. This situation is begging you to take the Raptors. So much so that people begin to question whether or not it's actually the right play. Trap play, Bait play... all those terms start flying around when lines like this come out.
I'm really getting a strange sense that the books want people to second guess this spread. Perhaps make the line so enticing to people that they fear taking it. Maybe that's how the books intend to steer people off of Toronto tomorrow when in reality, they know the Raptors are the best bet.
raptors look ahead to boston, they could also be mapping a story of sixers winning vs raptors, then people backing the sixers vs detroit because of AI, and detroit spanks the sixers.
raptors look ahead to boston, they could also be mapping a story of sixers winning vs raptors, then people backing the sixers vs detroit because of AI, and detroit spanks the sixers.
I think this line is right on when you also think that philly has won games @ Denver, Portland, Boston, and Sac. But these are road games against opponents who have had lots of injury problems and could really lose on any given game at this point. Boston might have been their biggest quality win of the season but it was a really off game for Boston blowing the lead like they did in the 2nd. I don't think the Raptors are looking ahead of themselves as if they win this game they will be above .500.
Throw in the fact you got Hedo and Jose Caulderon back for Toronto, it seems very probable they pull out a win tomorrow.
I think this line is right on when you also think that philly has won games @ Denver, Portland, Boston, and Sac. But these are road games against opponents who have had lots of injury problems and could really lose on any given game at this point. Boston might have been their biggest quality win of the season but it was a really off game for Boston blowing the lead like they did in the 2nd. I don't think the Raptors are looking ahead of themselves as if they win this game they will be above .500.
Throw in the fact you got Hedo and Jose Caulderon back for Toronto, it seems very probable they pull out a win tomorrow.
Ya I had like a mini write up / answer to this question on my thread so I'm not going to repeat myself just wanted to comment on one thing I read here.
I'm really getting a strange sense that the books want people to
second guess this spread. Perhaps make the line so enticing to people
that they fear taking it. Maybe that's how the books intend to steer
people off of Toronto tomorrow when in reality, they know the Raptors
are the best bet.
Thoughts?
Best Bet ? ... Am I the only one who thinks this healthy sixers team is BETTER than this raptors team flat out ? And they are at home ? The way you paint this picture the Raps and Sixers arent even in the same League.
The Raps got an 8 game lead on the Sixers right now.... anyone wanna have some fun and offer me a prop bet on the rest of the season between these 2 teams ?? I mean come on the raps are THAT MUCH BETTER.... They are up 8 after only 36 games ....how about I take PHI +8 +140 on the rest of the season ???
Ya I had like a mini write up / answer to this question on my thread so I'm not going to repeat myself just wanted to comment on one thing I read here.
I'm really getting a strange sense that the books want people to
second guess this spread. Perhaps make the line so enticing to people
that they fear taking it. Maybe that's how the books intend to steer
people off of Toronto tomorrow when in reality, they know the Raptors
are the best bet.
Thoughts?
Best Bet ? ... Am I the only one who thinks this healthy sixers team is BETTER than this raptors team flat out ? And they are at home ? The way you paint this picture the Raps and Sixers arent even in the same League.
The Raps got an 8 game lead on the Sixers right now.... anyone wanna have some fun and offer me a prop bet on the rest of the season between these 2 teams ?? I mean come on the raps are THAT MUCH BETTER.... They are up 8 after only 36 games ....how about I take PHI +8 +140 on the rest of the season ???
Have you ever looked a line that was SOOOOO square that you began to question just what exactly the linemakers intention was? As I look at the Toronto Raptors +1.5 tomorrow against Philly, I keep asking myself that question. What exactly do the books want people to do in this situation?
Here's a little breakdown on the matchup from CrazyMilkMan's thread. I thought he summed it up perfectly in the first paragraph... so I stole it.
Seriously, why are they even faves in this spot? Raptors just got the Turk back and balled over San Antonio and Orlando the other night. They won 7 of their last 8 games, credit to CB4 who's playing like an MVP out there. Philly is off a disappointing loss to the Wizards, giving the game up in the final quarter.
Damn, I couldn't have said it better myself. This situation is begging you to take the Raptors. So much so that people begin to question whether or not it's actually the right play. Trap play, Bait play... all those terms start flying around when lines like this come out.
I'm really getting a strange sense that the books want people to second guess this spread. Perhaps make the line so enticing to people that they fear taking it. Maybe that's how the books intend to steer people off of Toronto tomorrow when in reality, they know the Raptors are the best bet.
Thoughts?
Gotta be honest I have never been a fan of your capping style CC. Your oddsmakers conspiracy theory doesn't sit well with me. But progressively as the season has gone on I am beginning to think I was wrong in dismissing this capping style. I do think you should put more emphasis on roster matchups and situational spots but analyzing vegas and lines the way you do is not a bad idea at all. I think you might be spot on with your double entandre conspiracy theory with the Raps tonight. Vegas maybe trying to trick you twice over by favoring the 76ers. I don't believe that oddsmakers want 50/50 action. They want profit and want the public to back the wrong side. I do think Raps are the play but I do not like the roster matchups for my Raps. I wish you luck with whatever side you decide on. Peace.
Have you ever looked a line that was SOOOOO square that you began to question just what exactly the linemakers intention was? As I look at the Toronto Raptors +1.5 tomorrow against Philly, I keep asking myself that question. What exactly do the books want people to do in this situation?
Here's a little breakdown on the matchup from CrazyMilkMan's thread. I thought he summed it up perfectly in the first paragraph... so I stole it.
Seriously, why are they even faves in this spot? Raptors just got the Turk back and balled over San Antonio and Orlando the other night. They won 7 of their last 8 games, credit to CB4 who's playing like an MVP out there. Philly is off a disappointing loss to the Wizards, giving the game up in the final quarter.
Damn, I couldn't have said it better myself. This situation is begging you to take the Raptors. So much so that people begin to question whether or not it's actually the right play. Trap play, Bait play... all those terms start flying around when lines like this come out.
I'm really getting a strange sense that the books want people to second guess this spread. Perhaps make the line so enticing to people that they fear taking it. Maybe that's how the books intend to steer people off of Toronto tomorrow when in reality, they know the Raptors are the best bet.
Thoughts?
Gotta be honest I have never been a fan of your capping style CC. Your oddsmakers conspiracy theory doesn't sit well with me. But progressively as the season has gone on I am beginning to think I was wrong in dismissing this capping style. I do think you should put more emphasis on roster matchups and situational spots but analyzing vegas and lines the way you do is not a bad idea at all. I think you might be spot on with your double entandre conspiracy theory with the Raps tonight. Vegas maybe trying to trick you twice over by favoring the 76ers. I don't believe that oddsmakers want 50/50 action. They want profit and want the public to back the wrong side. I do think Raps are the play but I do not like the roster matchups for my Raps. I wish you luck with whatever side you decide on. Peace.
I don't know about Iverson sucking it up again. He probably had his worst game of his career in the previous game with 4pts 5ast and 7TO
Either way Toronto does have Calderon back healthy and with him coming off the bench.. that's quite a boost for the 2nd unit. However, Toronto really is a much different road team so this entire game is just.. iffy at best
I don't know about Iverson sucking it up again. He probably had his worst game of his career in the previous game with 4pts 5ast and 7TO
Either way Toronto does have Calderon back healthy and with him coming off the bench.. that's quite a boost for the 2nd unit. However, Toronto really is a much different road team so this entire game is just.. iffy at best
Developing a consistency at handicapping lines and games or you will inherit the dreaded paralysis by anaysis disease and thus turning you into a loser on a regular basis.
Developing a consistency at handicapping lines and games or you will inherit the dreaded paralysis by anaysis disease and thus turning you into a loser on a regular basis.
NBA | (803) TORONTO @ (804) PHILADELPHIA | 01/08/2010 7:05 PM Play AGAINST PHILADELPHIA against the spread in All games in home games The record is 2 Wins and 13 Losses this season (-12.30 units)
NBA | (803) TORONTO @ (804) PHILADELPHIA | 01/08/2010 7:05 PM Play AGAINST PHILADELPHIA against the spread in All games in home games The record is 2 Wins and 13 Losses this season (-12.30 units)
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