first off, if I hear one more statement of "this is the heat and because it's the heat, they win", I will puke. This indset got blown in with the Spurs getting beat down. If I hear the history of game 7s and how over 70 percent of the home teams win, I will continue to dhake my head. Lastly, if people think that just because the raptors have been crap in the past in these type games, I will laugh. So puke, shake my head, then laugh! Let's talk of THESE TEAMS, not other past teams.
The raptors: poorly coached team, no sets on offense, pure iso and pick and roll offense. They can get away with it though because Lowry and derozan have the capability of extending the floor if they hit the open shot. If they are both on, problems for heat. Biyomobo has given them a nice defensive boost but if people think Patterson is a stopper and a force, wake up. Jonas really kept the heat honest because he was a force on offense. Now, with him out, I see bench players like Ross, Powell and Joseph stepping up. That brings me to the meat and potatoes for the raps if they are going to win. If you think derozan and Lowry will be the reason why they win today, you are nuts. The raps will win because of their defense today. They will need to clog the lane and force Miami into one and dones outside. They will then need to enforce a Miami game plan that was used in game 6 against them. Drive and attack which will leave the Powells, ross' and Joseph's open.
Heat: they are hanging on by a string. White side out hurts them but spo has adjusted well. The word adjustment is what separates them from the raps in my opinion. I haven't seem much of an adjustment in Toronto but spo went small and athletic which has given the raps fits. So for game plan, why change anything from game 6? Dragic and wade will try and drive but the difference today is that the raps will try with everything to close that lane off. Here, the heat will need to hit shots to open the lane up. The two guys that I think will be key today will be Winslow and JOE JOHNSON. He's been non existent for the most part but he'll have one on ones all day today, especially if he wants to post smaller guards. The heat will have to be careful on the defensive side becuas if they can'tslip and slide on the pick and roll, biyombo will have his way against a smaller heat lineup. Stoudemire needs to be physical today and his defense along with haslems and mcroberts could be huge.
What i see happening: I think this game comes down to controlling the glass and turnovers. Half court defense will be on display here and I have to give the edge to the heat, slightly. As a coach myself, this is what I tell my players in practice and before games. Control the glass and take care of the ball, you usually win the game. lowry has had a tendency to get in over his head with trying to make plays that aren't there and taking bad shots. Derozan disappears for stretches too. Wade will bring his A game as will dragic because he's in a zone inside and out. The refs will have a say in this one, no doubt! Watch this all day especially down the stretch. Me being a firm believer in the fix, I think it comes into play here with the whistles. I see a close low scoring game but in the end, I think Miami has a little too much much in part because of joe Johnson. Big buckets at big times for him.
PICK: Miami ML - this will be won in the last 15 seconds or so and I'm calling a wade drive and dish to either dragic or Johnson for the win. With that, whiteside plays in the ECF, well rested this making the ECF a great matchup. Sorry for the essay. REMEMBER, look at the actual teams and coaches and what has gone on in the series rather than look at the history. One game, one plan, I feel Miami is better today. I lean under as well but probably no play there