87 - 61 @ 59% for +19.9 Units
Wed, 02/23
#1: FEAR the DEER +7
Last night I tailed Carmelo's "old team" and we got an easy Nuggz victory. Today though, I'm fading his "new squad". In that Nuggets game yesterday, the bookies clearly under-valued Denver's remaining players and we had tremendous 'value' backing them. Today though, the books are clearly over-valuing the Knicks. And why not? The public is going to be on them no matter what line is put out. Here's some quick math for you: Early in the season, Bucks were hosting the Knicks as -5.5 point favorites. They blew them out 107-80. With 'standard adjustments' you'd expect Bucks to be +0.5/+1 on the road (this is based off that early line and YES I know teams are different now). Well, the Bucks are +7 today. So we have a variance of 6 points that needs to be explained. OK, logically we can say that Knicks are a better team now than they were Novemeber 9th and at the same time the Bucks are slightly worse than they were projected by the books early in the season. You can also account for b2b for Milwaukee, even though I don't really think it's a factor here (All-Star break). So these factors explain some of this variance. So now, the rest is due to Carmelo Anthony? What about the former Knicks players that are now in Denver (Mozgov, Felton, Gallinari, Chandler)? Are they accounted in this line? Some might say Billups is also a factor, but is he really a better player than Felton at this point of their careers? A lot of questions here and I don't believe they are all 'answered' by this line-variance. I truly feel that we have about 2-3 points of real 'value' on Milwaukee tonight.
Alright, hopefully this helped explain 'line-value' in this one. Now I'll try to explain why Bucks are the play tonight. First of all, Milwaukee is at the top of my list of teams to pay attention to in the 2nd half of the season. They are getting healthier and with the type of defense they can play, this team can be very competitive going forward. Yesterday I felt they were laying way too many points at home, so I laid off that one. But today, they are under-valued and I just have to back them in this spot.
Carmelo and Billups are playing tonight in their first game for the Knicks. These players are not familiar with their new teammates, New York's game-strategies, and just overall with their new surroundings. It's like coming in to work on your first day on the job and being given a desk and told 'Alright, go to work now'. Obviously no corporation will ever let new employees 'go to work' without proper training and introduction to the new environment (year, right!). Well, there really is no time for all that in the NBA. 'Melo and Billups must suit up and play today. How will they do in their first game? Well, these 2 are professionals so they should be OK but it's still going to take time for them to "gel" with their teammates. It also takes time to learn the offensive plays, defensive strategies, etc. How will Amare 'mesh' with Carmelo? Both players demand the ball and 'Melo is not used to D'Antoni's 'flowing' offense. He's used to ISO plays that he constantly ran in Denver. Again, it will take some time.
The Bucks are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 games against New York and 4-0 SU/ATS at Madison Square Garden. I know a lot of the players are new/different than a year or so ago, but it's still gotta give Milwaukee a lot of confidence to be able to come into this arena and play well tonight. Earlier this year, the Bucks played the Knicks and completely dominated them. Milwaukee shot 51% from the field compared to 38% for the Knicks, outrebounded NY by 11, and had 7 less turnovers. Actually in the last 4 games here at the Garden, the Bucks held NY to only 38% from the field. Last 3 overall games, they held them to 39%. Something about playing the Knicks that brings the 'best' out of these Bucks players. At the same time, we all know that NY does not like to play any defense at home giving up 106 ppg and allowing 48% FG%. Now they're missing Mozgov to 'man' the middle for them. I expect the Bucks to drive the ball to the hoop all night long and kick out to their perimeter shooters for open shots. Can they make them? I think they will. And even if they don't make them at the rate I'm expecting, we have 7 points of 'cushion' to work with here
FEAR the DEER!