·Guthrie has been pretty good lately;he pitched the last 32 innings giving up only
9 ER’s (2.53 ERA)In his last 5 road
starts Guthrie has pitched 33 innings giving up 11 total ER’s (ERA of 3.0) and that was against Tor, TB, Minn, KC, and
NYY which all but Minn is in the top 11 in MLB in runs scored (season), and lasting an average of 6.3 innings per
start
·Baltimore Bullpen’sseason ERA is 4.23, but has performed much
better down the stretch, their last 3 games they have an ERA of 3.55, while
Boston’s last 3 is 6.03.Boston has used
15 innings of BP pitchers in the last 4 days, while Baltimore has used only 10.
·Boston has had only 1 day off of baseball since
8/31 (during a particularly stressful race with TB) including a road trip
covering Toronto to Tampa Bay) and they are tired, backs against the wall.
·Buck Showalter seems to rally his team down the
stretch somehow (as he did last season) and they are playing for pride and on a
roll as of late, winning their last 6 of 10, while Boston is a mere 4 of their
last 17.
·24 year old Kyle Weiland has had a rough time in
his MLB debut season thus far with a 7.58 ERA, (though he pitched well vs Bmore
back on 7/19/11 going 6 innings and only giving up 3 ER’s, which was his only
quality start of 4).He pitches
particularly bad in Fenway:11 innings
and giving up 10 runs.
·Guthrie has been pretty good lately;he pitched the last 32 innings giving up only
9 ER’s (2.53 ERA)In his last 5 road
starts Guthrie has pitched 33 innings giving up 11 total ER’s (ERA of 3.0) and that was against Tor, TB, Minn, KC, and
NYY which all but Minn is in the top 11 in MLB in runs scored (season), and lasting an average of 6.3 innings per
start
·Baltimore Bullpen’sseason ERA is 4.23, but has performed much
better down the stretch, their last 3 games they have an ERA of 3.55, while
Boston’s last 3 is 6.03.Boston has used
15 innings of BP pitchers in the last 4 days, while Baltimore has used only 10.
·Boston has had only 1 day off of baseball since
8/31 (during a particularly stressful race with TB) including a road trip
covering Toronto to Tampa Bay) and they are tired, backs against the wall.
·Buck Showalter seems to rally his team down the
stretch somehow (as he did last season) and they are playing for pride and on a
roll as of late, winning their last 6 of 10, while Boston is a mere 4 of their
last 17.
·24 year old Kyle Weiland has had a rough time in
his MLB debut season thus far with a 7.58 ERA, (though he pitched well vs Bmore
back on 7/19/11 going 6 innings and only giving up 3 ER’s, which was his only
quality start of 4).He pitches
particularly bad in Fenway:11 innings
and giving up 10 runs.
·The Sox’s power at the plate is their strength,
but the 12 mph wind wind blowing from the left field corner to the right field
corner will take away some ‘Green Monster’ potential, and the 63 degree temp
and 55 % humidity should also limit the a few would be HR’s into fly outs.
I capped this game with Baltimore having a 54% win
probability @ a +153 line which gives it (based on 100 games) an EPQ of +$3662,
or $366.20 per gm………. Baltimore RL I capped at a 66% probability of winning
which gives it an EPQ of (line @ -140) of $1840 or $184 per gm.I am playing the RL (due to the high % chance
of winning only to protect my ML Bmore play:Bmore ML $50 @ +153, and Bmore RL $70
·The Sox’s power at the plate is their strength,
but the 12 mph wind wind blowing from the left field corner to the right field
corner will take away some ‘Green Monster’ potential, and the 63 degree temp
and 55 % humidity should also limit the a few would be HR’s into fly outs.
I capped this game with Baltimore having a 54% win
probability @ a +153 line which gives it (based on 100 games) an EPQ of +$3662,
or $366.20 per gm………. Baltimore RL I capped at a 66% probability of winning
which gives it an EPQ of (line @ -140) of $1840 or $184 per gm.I am playing the RL (due to the high % chance
of winning only to protect my ML Bmore play:Bmore ML $50 @ +153, and Bmore RL $70
·The Sox’s power at the plate is their strength,
but the 12 mph wind wind blowing from the left field corner to the right field
corner will take away some ‘Green Monster’ potential, and the 63 degree temp
and 55 % humidity should also limit the a few would be HR’s into fly outs.
I capped this game with Baltimore having a 54% win
probability @ a +153 line which gives it (based on 100 games) an EPQ of +$3662,
or $366.20 per gm………. Baltimore RL I capped at a 66% probability of winning
which gives it an EPQ of (line @ -140) of $1840 or $184 per gm.I am playing the RL (due to the high % chance
of winning only to protect my ML Bmore play:Bmore ML $50 @ +153, and Bmore RL $70
Brother your stats and math continue to amaze me. I think those are some smart plays. i like the cover your but play
·The Sox’s power at the plate is their strength,
but the 12 mph wind wind blowing from the left field corner to the right field
corner will take away some ‘Green Monster’ potential, and the 63 degree temp
and 55 % humidity should also limit the a few would be HR’s into fly outs.
I capped this game with Baltimore having a 54% win
probability @ a +153 line which gives it (based on 100 games) an EPQ of +$3662,
or $366.20 per gm………. Baltimore RL I capped at a 66% probability of winning
which gives it an EPQ of (line @ -140) of $1840 or $184 per gm.I am playing the RL (due to the high % chance
of winning only to protect my ML Bmore play:Bmore ML $50 @ +153, and Bmore RL $70
Brother your stats and math continue to amaze me. I think those are some smart plays. i like the cover your but play
Brother your stats and math continue to amaze me. I think those are some smart plays. i like the cover your but play
Thanks man.. I appreciate the feedback.... I am just barely (+4%) confident on the ML (hence the RL protection play).... GL 2 U today and all days my friend!
Brother your stats and math continue to amaze me. I think those are some smart plays. i like the cover your but play
Thanks man.. I appreciate the feedback.... I am just barely (+4%) confident on the ML (hence the RL protection play).... GL 2 U today and all days my friend!
O's looking good right now... hope it holds up for you.
Thanks Tone... if it does it does, if it doesn't it won't.. my montra lol.... I don't sweat any games, I know I have and will continue to get em long run....BoL bro!
O's looking good right now... hope it holds up for you.
Thanks Tone... if it does it does, if it doesn't it won't.. my montra lol.... I don't sweat any games, I know I have and will continue to get em long run....BoL bro!
Ur tha DUDE. hope shit works out and hangs on. what u on for 2night bro? n how u do in NFL?
Did better in College FB, the NFL started out behind but came back strong on the NE, and the Atlanta games...up 3.5 units...pretty good day. How about you? Hope you killed it brah!
Ur tha DUDE. hope shit works out and hangs on. what u on for 2night bro? n how u do in NFL?
Did better in College FB, the NFL started out behind but came back strong on the NE, and the Atlanta games...up 3.5 units...pretty good day. How about you? Hope you killed it brah!
More than that, just stopped by to say that I've seen you make several posts in other threads and I'm consistently impressed by your words and advice, which are sound and well thought out; usually in threads of desperate people seeking comfort or a way forward, a place I think all people who've been doing this a while once found themselves. This shit can eat you alive and spit you out without a thought.
Impressed with your level-headedness, keep doing what you do.
More than that, just stopped by to say that I've seen you make several posts in other threads and I'm consistently impressed by your words and advice, which are sound and well thought out; usually in threads of desperate people seeking comfort or a way forward, a place I think all people who've been doing this a while once found themselves. This shit can eat you alive and spit you out without a thought.
Impressed with your level-headedness, keep doing what you do.
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