I'm having an awful season so maybe I'm not the best to take advice from, but here are some tips:
1. Look at the home plate umpire. His over/under tendencies are important, as well as his ball/strike ratio. Be careful though, these guys go on long runs and then kind of change their colors, which I guess means a lot of this is random. You have to use the info wisely.
2. Look at ballpark layout in relation to the pitcher's tendencies. For example, Yankee stadium is a bandbox and Alexi Ogando is a fly ball pitcher. Low and behold he gave up three home runs last time in the bronx. Again, this isn't a sure fire method, but it's something to look at.
3. Take a look at the weather. It's hard to get a gauge of how certain wind from certain directions will effect things, but there are guys who have data on every stadium and the run total that has occurred at various wind speeds. Wrigley is obviously the big one for wind, but it may play a smaller factor in other parks.
4. If you're capping full games vs. 5 innings, you'll want to consider the bullpens. Take a look at who has a good pen. Also factor in who has pitched recently. For example, if Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano just pitched, they may be less likely to pitch the next day. That means a weaker pitcher may enter the game,
5. Consider the pitchers stats vs. a paticular lineup. So if Halladay is pitching great, but has poor numbers against say the Cardinals hitters, it may be a factor.
6. Some Sabremetrics help, consider those numbers carefully.
7. Look at the recent averages with runners in scoring position. If a team hasn't scored much the last few days, but they've been getting lots of guys on base and just not converting, it may be a sign that they can put up some runs coming up. Left on base numbers help for this as well.
8. In general, try and get an idea for who is over rated and who is under rated. It's early in the season and some starters still have ERAs in the 1.00 and 2.00 range. It's damn near impossible to keep that up, so try and figure out who is due to come up a bit. The line might just be set a 1/2 run too low because of their hot start and you can extract some value.
There are so many other things to look at, and obviously if I knew them all I would be having a better season!
I'm having an awful season so maybe I'm not the best to take advice from, but here are some tips:
1. Look at the home plate umpire. His over/under tendencies are important, as well as his ball/strike ratio. Be careful though, these guys go on long runs and then kind of change their colors, which I guess means a lot of this is random. You have to use the info wisely.
2. Look at ballpark layout in relation to the pitcher's tendencies. For example, Yankee stadium is a bandbox and Alexi Ogando is a fly ball pitcher. Low and behold he gave up three home runs last time in the bronx. Again, this isn't a sure fire method, but it's something to look at.
3. Take a look at the weather. It's hard to get a gauge of how certain wind from certain directions will effect things, but there are guys who have data on every stadium and the run total that has occurred at various wind speeds. Wrigley is obviously the big one for wind, but it may play a smaller factor in other parks.
4. If you're capping full games vs. 5 innings, you'll want to consider the bullpens. Take a look at who has a good pen. Also factor in who has pitched recently. For example, if Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano just pitched, they may be less likely to pitch the next day. That means a weaker pitcher may enter the game,
5. Consider the pitchers stats vs. a paticular lineup. So if Halladay is pitching great, but has poor numbers against say the Cardinals hitters, it may be a factor.
6. Some Sabremetrics help, consider those numbers carefully.
7. Look at the recent averages with runners in scoring position. If a team hasn't scored much the last few days, but they've been getting lots of guys on base and just not converting, it may be a sign that they can put up some runs coming up. Left on base numbers help for this as well.
8. In general, try and get an idea for who is over rated and who is under rated. It's early in the season and some starters still have ERAs in the 1.00 and 2.00 range. It's damn near impossible to keep that up, so try and figure out who is due to come up a bit. The line might just be set a 1/2 run too low because of their hot start and you can extract some value.
There are so many other things to look at, and obviously if I knew them all I would be having a better season!
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