41 - 25 @ 63% for +14.41 Units
Mon, 05/02
#1: UNDER 8 TEX/OAK
Both Holland and McCarthy are in 'bounce-back' spots here after a poor outing in each of their previous starts. Holland is facing an Oakland squad against whom he pitched 11 innings last year, giving up 9 hits, 1 ER's and 10K's with only 3 BB's. He has a life-time ERA of 2.35 and WHIP of 1.3 off them. McCarthy last faced Texas in 2005, thus most of these Rangers hitters haven't seen him. Beltre and Young are a combined 8 for 21 off him (.380 BA) with 2 HR's and 7 RBI's, but 'regression' works both ways, and I expect McCarthy to pitch to these two very carefully.
When looking at advanced stats, Holland has a FIP of 3.55 and xFIP of 3.50, while McCarthy is at 2.38 FIP and 3.28 xFIP. Both of these pitchers have very unclucky BABIP's (.354 for DH and .345 for BM) with E-F's at +1.57 for Holland and +1.18 for McCarthy. These are indicators that both will improve on their stats going forward.
The O/U is 6-12 in Rangers games this year against righty starters and I expect this one to be a low scoring affair.
#2: Boston Red Sox -109
If I only relied on advanced stats, then I would play the Angels in this one, as Buchholz' numbers aren't even close to Weaver's. But capping this game closely, leads me to believe that the 'value' is with the Red Sox. First of all, Weaver has an extremely 'LUCKY' BABIP of .220 (10th lowest in the league). Couple that with the fact that his LOB% is an 'astronomical' 91% (ave is 70%) as well as the fact that his GB% is only 31%, and we have a pitcher in Weaver who is due for some regression. Why today? Well, he is facing the Red Sox, against whom he has a 3-5 record (4-8 for the team) with ERA of 4.02. In his 2 starts against Boston last year, Weaver went 12 innings, gave up 12 hits, 8 ER's and 2 HR's. He had a 12 to 4 K/BB. Both starts resulted in losses. The current Boston hitters are batting .289 off him with .337 OBP and .837 OPS. Opposite Weaver is Buchholz, who is coming off a horrible outing where he gave up 12 hits and 4 ER's in 6.2 innings. Buchholz though, is 4-2 against the Angels in his career. In his last 2 starts against them he gave up 10 hits and 1 ER in 14 innings pitched, with a 10 to 3 K/BB. The current LA hitters are batting .183 off him with .254 OBP and .529 OPS (big difference in #'s compared to BOS hitters vs. Weaver).
Angels are 3-13 in the last 16 meetings between the 2 teams and 1-6 in the last 7 in Boston. The Rex Sox already won 4 games against the Angels this year, and I expect them to make it 5 in row tonight.
#3: Chicago White Sox -110
Statistically, Buehrle and Guthrie are fairly equal. Buehrle has an FIP of 3.83 and xFIP of 4.43, which is really close to Guthrie's 3.57 FIP and 4.11 xFIP. The difference is that Guthrie has a somewhat lucky BABIP of .275 and an E-F of -1.04 (#20 to the negative) indicating that some regression is in order. I expect that to come tonight against the ChiSox.
First of all, White Sox are beginning to hit. In the last 2 games in this series, White Sox had 16 hits compared to 14 for the Orioles. The difference is that Baltimore left 10 men on base, compared to 18 for the White Sox. That's a huge difference. That discrepancy in runners LOB was 11 to 4 yesterday. I expect the Sox to continue putting men on base tonight against Guthrie and a few timely hits should be enough to get them a win. Guthrie has been pretty decent this year with an ERA Of 2.53 and a 1.09 WHIP. That's way off his career 4.09 ERA and 1.3 WHIP. In his last start he threw 111 pitches, which was his highest total of the season. He gave up 7 hits and 1 BB in that outing, but ZERO ER's. What's interesting is that he recorded 15 FB outs in that one to only 2 via the GB. Obviously, he got a bit lucky, not giving up any runs. Coming off a 111 pitch-game, and showing a propensity to give up so many fly-balls, does not bode well for him against a White Sox lineup playing at home.
Buehrle, on the other hand, has had a very good outing in his last game against the Yankees. If not for a 3-run HR he gave up in the first, Buehrle would have went 7 scoreless innings against the Bombers. White Sox are 8-3 in Buehrle's 11 starts following a team loss and tonight I expect him to get the White Sox a much needed win against a Baltimore squad that is 2-5 on the season against a left-handed starter. What's even more interesting is that in the past couple of years, Baltimore is 44-74 (37%) against lefties. I like the home-team to get a victory in this one.
FEAR the 'DEER' of baseball...aka, the White Sox!!!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
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'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."