[Quote: Originally Posted by totalguy]
Simply not true. Every game is an independent entity and the math holds true whether you're looking at an individual game or the summation of thousands of games.
The historical results of this prop are highly correlated to the full game O/U. The higher the O/U for the game, the higher the chance of the YES hitting. Pitcher data, team data, batter vs pitcher data are useless here because of the small sample sizes. Anyone using that type of data to base their bets on is simply chasing common cause variation that will regress back to the mean.
Finally, the books shade their lines banking on the common misconception that the NO hits far more often than the YES when it's almost 50/50. That's why you consistently see the ridiculously bad lines on the NO. The books can get away with it because of the misconception. No one makes them pay for it by playing the YES consistently.
[Quote: Originally Posted by totalguy]
Simply not true. Every game is an independent entity and the math holds true whether you're looking at an individual game or the summation of thousands of games.
The historical results of this prop are highly correlated to the full game O/U. The higher the O/U for the game, the higher the chance of the YES hitting. Pitcher data, team data, batter vs pitcher data are useless here because of the small sample sizes. Anyone using that type of data to base their bets on is simply chasing common cause variation that will regress back to the mean.
Finally, the books shade their lines banking on the common misconception that the NO hits far more often than the YES when it's almost 50/50. That's why you consistently see the ridiculously bad lines on the NO. The books can get away with it because of the misconception. No one makes them pay for it by playing the YES consistently.
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