Yesterday produced a return to the positives after a negative day on Monday. Nothing prior to Monday was posted, but things have gone quite well since I took time off for final exams and a new approach to capping. Several leans for today but only one play locked in thus far:
Astros @ Cardinals Under 7.5 -115 (1.15 units to win 1.0) The pitchers really loom large in this one. Bud Norris has been a revelation in an otherwise abysmal Astros rotation this season and has made it a habit to dominate the Cardinals in his young career. In four career starts at Busch Stadium, Norris is 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 26.0 innings. He has struck out eight or more batters in his last three starts overall and has not struck out less than six in eight starts this season. And, not only does his performance thus far appear not to be a fluke, but he has actually been somewhat unlucky with a .306 BABIP. His xFIP of 2.73 is almost a full run lower than his actual ERA of 3.42.
Meanwhile, Kyle Lohse has been excellent this year, albeit somewhat lucky with an xFIP of 3.75, much higher than his 2.31 ERA. With that said, however, he faces an Astros lineup tonight that struggles to hit away from home. Houston ranks 26th in ISO power, 25th in OBP, 23rd in OPS, 28th in SO%, and 30th in BB%. It seems unlikely that will be able to do much damage against Lohse in spacious Busch Stadium.
The Cardinals offense works in strange ways, hitting for prodigious numbers on the road but scuffling at home. They haven't scored more than three runs in their last four home games and over the course of the season, have recorded the following numbers:
So while the Cards are not a "bad" offensive team at home, they are not nearly as explosive as they are on when playing in opposing ballparks. I think this is a favorable number at 7.5 given the starting pitchers and offenses. I may add a bit more to it if some of the other games on the slate are not particularly appealing. GL to everyone today
Yesterday produced a return to the positives after a negative day on Monday. Nothing prior to Monday was posted, but things have gone quite well since I took time off for final exams and a new approach to capping. Several leans for today but only one play locked in thus far:
Astros @ Cardinals Under 7.5 -115 (1.15 units to win 1.0) The pitchers really loom large in this one. Bud Norris has been a revelation in an otherwise abysmal Astros rotation this season and has made it a habit to dominate the Cardinals in his young career. In four career starts at Busch Stadium, Norris is 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 26.0 innings. He has struck out eight or more batters in his last three starts overall and has not struck out less than six in eight starts this season. And, not only does his performance thus far appear not to be a fluke, but he has actually been somewhat unlucky with a .306 BABIP. His xFIP of 2.73 is almost a full run lower than his actual ERA of 3.42.
Meanwhile, Kyle Lohse has been excellent this year, albeit somewhat lucky with an xFIP of 3.75, much higher than his 2.31 ERA. With that said, however, he faces an Astros lineup tonight that struggles to hit away from home. Houston ranks 26th in ISO power, 25th in OBP, 23rd in OPS, 28th in SO%, and 30th in BB%. It seems unlikely that will be able to do much damage against Lohse in spacious Busch Stadium.
The Cardinals offense works in strange ways, hitting for prodigious numbers on the road but scuffling at home. They haven't scored more than three runs in their last four home games and over the course of the season, have recorded the following numbers:
So while the Cards are not a "bad" offensive team at home, they are not nearly as explosive as they are on when playing in opposing ballparks. I think this is a favorable number at 7.5 given the starting pitchers and offenses. I may add a bit more to it if some of the other games on the slate are not particularly appealing. GL to everyone today
Rockies +138 @ Phillies (1 unit to win 1.38) Rockies -1.5 +215 @ Phillies (.33 units to win .75) Several reasons to like Colorado in this spot. The most obvious is that the Philly offense is downright deplorable right now and the stingy Jorge De la Rosa (.221 BAA) is not the type of pitcher who will easily allow it to break out of the slump. Over the last 7 games, the Phils have accumulated some astonishingly bad offensive numbers:
BA: .187 (29th) ISO Power: .104 (26th) OBP: .248 (30th)
One reason why is that the replacement players filling in for injured parts of the lineup are simply below-average hitters. Michael Martinez (CF), John Mayberry Jr (RF), and Wilson Valdez (2B) comprise 1/3 of tonight's lineup. That's a far cry from last year when Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and Chase Utley occupied those spots. Additionally, two of the power bats in the lineup, lefties Ryan Howard and Placido Polanco, will be facing a pitcher who has allowed a ridiculous BAA of .107 to left-handed hitters. Rollins is still in his season-long spot but is forced to lead off due to a lack of viable options.
Bottom line is that the offense is a mess and teams returning from long road trips (in this case 8 games) often fare poorly in their first game back home. Hamels will probably pitch well, but he will be confronted by a Rockies' lineup that is getting on base with high efficiency and posting good power numbers after a brief slump. They also rank 5th in baseball in ISO power against lefties.
I honestly don't understand the support for the Phillies. Hamels will likely turn in a solid outing, but the offensive struggles are unlikely to be cured by facing a stifling pitcher whose dominance against lefties bodes poorly for the middle of the Phillies' lineup.
Rockies +138 @ Phillies (1 unit to win 1.38) Rockies -1.5 +215 @ Phillies (.33 units to win .75) Several reasons to like Colorado in this spot. The most obvious is that the Philly offense is downright deplorable right now and the stingy Jorge De la Rosa (.221 BAA) is not the type of pitcher who will easily allow it to break out of the slump. Over the last 7 games, the Phils have accumulated some astonishingly bad offensive numbers:
BA: .187 (29th) ISO Power: .104 (26th) OBP: .248 (30th)
One reason why is that the replacement players filling in for injured parts of the lineup are simply below-average hitters. Michael Martinez (CF), John Mayberry Jr (RF), and Wilson Valdez (2B) comprise 1/3 of tonight's lineup. That's a far cry from last year when Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and Chase Utley occupied those spots. Additionally, two of the power bats in the lineup, lefties Ryan Howard and Placido Polanco, will be facing a pitcher who has allowed a ridiculous BAA of .107 to left-handed hitters. Rollins is still in his season-long spot but is forced to lead off due to a lack of viable options.
Bottom line is that the offense is a mess and teams returning from long road trips (in this case 8 games) often fare poorly in their first game back home. Hamels will probably pitch well, but he will be confronted by a Rockies' lineup that is getting on base with high efficiency and posting good power numbers after a brief slump. They also rank 5th in baseball in ISO power against lefties.
I honestly don't understand the support for the Phillies. Hamels will likely turn in a solid outing, but the offensive struggles are unlikely to be cured by facing a stifling pitcher whose dominance against lefties bodes poorly for the middle of the Phillies' lineup.
Tigers Over 4 +100 @ Red Sox (1 unit) Can't trust Phil Coke enough to bet Detroit on the money line, but the Tigers offense has been extraordinarily patient lately, a good matchup going against Buchholz. Detroit has also hit well on the road all season and with particularly good results on their recent road trip. With V-Mart making his return to Boston, the unpredictability of Buchholz, and the Tigers' renewed commitment to patience, 4 runs is a very attainable goal this evening.
That's all for the earlier games. Haven't taken a look yet at the 9:40-10:15 slate.
Tigers Over 4 +100 @ Red Sox (1 unit) Can't trust Phil Coke enough to bet Detroit on the money line, but the Tigers offense has been extraordinarily patient lately, a good matchup going against Buchholz. Detroit has also hit well on the road all season and with particularly good results on their recent road trip. With V-Mart making his return to Boston, the unpredictability of Buchholz, and the Tigers' renewed commitment to patience, 4 runs is a very attainable goal this evening.
That's all for the earlier games. Haven't taken a look yet at the 9:40-10:15 slate.
Current Card Astros @ Cardinals Under 7.5 -115 (1.15 units to win 1.0) Rockies +138 @ Phillies (1 unit to win 1.38) Rockies -1.5 +215 @ Phillies (.33 units to win .75) Tigers Over 4 +100 @ Red Sox (1 unit
Current Card Astros @ Cardinals Under 7.5 -115 (1.15 units to win 1.0) Rockies +138 @ Phillies (1 unit to win 1.38) Rockies -1.5 +215 @ Phillies (.33 units to win .75) Tigers Over 4 +100 @ Red Sox (1 unit
Money line dropping amidst strong public support for Philly. The reporter on MLB Network highlighted De La Rosa's dominance over lefties in his report, as well as the success the Phillies have had against him. Somethin has to give here...
Money line dropping amidst strong public support for Philly. The reporter on MLB Network highlighted De La Rosa's dominance over lefties in his report, as well as the success the Phillies have had against him. Somethin has to give here...
Sorry about that Rockies play , De La Rosa held his own . Nobody but Helton really doing anything ... Giambi had a shot at the end but got robbed of a pitch ...
Sorry about that Rockies play , De La Rosa held his own . Nobody but Helton really doing anything ... Giambi had a shot at the end but got robbed of a pitch ...
Sorry about that Rockies play , De La Rosa held his own . Nobody but Helton really doing anything ... Giambi had a shot at the end but got robbed of a pitch ...
Yep, great pitching from De La Rosa. That blown call certainly changed the entire at-bat but who knows if Giambi would have done anything with it. Tough loss but tomorrow is a new day
With that said, one play lined up for the nightcap...
Twins @ Athletics Under 7 +110 (1 unit to win 1.1) Two very patient teams hardly known for their hitting ability. I had a bunch of stats typed up but managed to lose them, so I'll sum it up by saying that with a somewhat pitcher-friendly umpire behind the plate tonight (Ted Barrett), Pavano, particularly, should be ahead in a lot of counts. He ranks 44th among pitchers in percentage of strikes thrown, which should benefit him against the A's, who take more pitches than any other team. Last night's Oakland outburst was a result of Tyler Chatwood not throwing strikes and constantly falling behind in the count. Minnesota, obviously, has been quite anemic all season and particularly doing the losing streak. McCarthy has dominated at home and I'll bank on him keeping up the good work in the Coliseum tonight.
Sorry about that Rockies play , De La Rosa held his own . Nobody but Helton really doing anything ... Giambi had a shot at the end but got robbed of a pitch ...
Yep, great pitching from De La Rosa. That blown call certainly changed the entire at-bat but who knows if Giambi would have done anything with it. Tough loss but tomorrow is a new day
With that said, one play lined up for the nightcap...
Twins @ Athletics Under 7 +110 (1 unit to win 1.1) Two very patient teams hardly known for their hitting ability. I had a bunch of stats typed up but managed to lose them, so I'll sum it up by saying that with a somewhat pitcher-friendly umpire behind the plate tonight (Ted Barrett), Pavano, particularly, should be ahead in a lot of counts. He ranks 44th among pitchers in percentage of strikes thrown, which should benefit him against the A's, who take more pitches than any other team. Last night's Oakland outburst was a result of Tyler Chatwood not throwing strikes and constantly falling behind in the count. Minnesota, obviously, has been quite anemic all season and particularly doing the losing streak. McCarthy has dominated at home and I'll bank on him keeping up the good work in the Coliseum tonight.
Astros @ Cardinals Under 7.5 -115 (1.15 units to win 1.0) Rockies +138 @ Phillies (1 unit to win 1.38) Rockies -1.5 +215 @ Phillies (.33 units to win .75) Tigers Over 4 +100 @ Red Sox (1 unit) Twins @ Athletics Under 7 +110 (1 unit to win 1.1)Push
Rockies loss obviously killed the night. De La Rosa was fantastic but they could not get to Hamels and the big strike zone hurt the more patient Rockies all game long. Plenty to look at tomorrow though
Astros @ Cardinals Under 7.5 -115 (1.15 units to win 1.0) Rockies +138 @ Phillies (1 unit to win 1.38) Rockies -1.5 +215 @ Phillies (.33 units to win .75) Tigers Over 4 +100 @ Red Sox (1 unit) Twins @ Athletics Under 7 +110 (1 unit to win 1.1)Push
Rockies loss obviously killed the night. De La Rosa was fantastic but they could not get to Hamels and the big strike zone hurt the more patient Rockies all game long. Plenty to look at tomorrow though
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