Seemingly everyone else has weighed in on tonight's National Championship Game, so I might as well post where my money is as well.
There are some good write-ups on the board, so I will spare you the statistical breakdown, situational factors, etc. Bookieassassin has a great writeup with tons of info., I would be hardpressed to add any thing of substance to his breakdown.
So, here are few reasons on why I put my money where I did:
1) Urban Meyer vs Mark Helfrich Most guys would agree that Meyer is an elite coach. Not much doubt about that. Also, most guys would agree that Helfrich is a bit on the weird side, and in many ways an unknown quantity. The big question is whom has the advantage?
The truth is that schematically, there are only a few things that OSU can do on defense to attempt to slow Oregon down. Defending the Ducks successfully depends entirely on keeping your front 4 fresh, and being able to push the line of scrimmage back into Mariotta's face...penetration speeds up decision making at the mesh point, and in effect blows the timing up on all read option plays, and the play action passing off of the read. Penetration up the middle (DT's shaded either way over the Guards) leads to negative plays on 1st and 2nd down, which in effect flips the odds on 3rd down, yadda yadda yadda. IF that is physically possible, from OSU, then the hurry up option offense becomes very pedestrian. So, on defense at least, there isn't as big of an edge for OSU in the coaching department as first perceived; OSU will either have the horses to blow up the line of scrimmage for 4 quarters or not.
The big edge for OSU in this coaching matchup is on offense. Meyer game plans, and makes ingame adjustments as good as anyone on the offensive side of the ball. I look at the OSU game @ Michigan St. By the end of that game, OSU was woodshedding a top notch defensive team on the road. I do not think Oregon's first year defensive coordinator will have any idea of how Meyer and the Bucks are going to attack his defense. It will take masterful ingame adjustments for Oregon to slow down OSU in the second half.
All in all, I take Urban Meyer over Helfrich because of the offensive side of the ball. OSU will be very difficult for Oregon to control......by that I am talking about being able to get off of the field when the Ducks have to, not necessarily on the scoreboard.
2) Oregon is missing a bunch of guys from their conference run in this game. That is not good....losing a WR like Harrington will affect Mariotta, in one way or another.
3) The level of hitting in the OSU/Alabama game was 3x the hitting in the FSU/Oregon matchup. FSU was a finesse team, we all new it all season long (so did the oddsmakers) and in that one, Oregon took it to them. I am not sure that Oregon is ready for a tough, Midwestern squad that likes to hit. OSU went toe to toe with Bama in New Orleans, and came out the tougher team. Again, I use Michigan St as a litmus test, this time in regards to Oregon's toughness. MSU took it to the Ducks for 2 3/4 quarters.....and then the turnovers came. Physically, MSU was pushing them around in Eugene...
Here are some x factors:
1) Big 12 referee crew.....flag happy; if this crew holds Oregon to a high standard in regard to the tackles blocking the DE's on off tackle read option plays, then Oregon is in for 4+ holding calls. Tonight, those are drive killers.
2) The turf in Arlington is fast. Real fast. That is an advantage for the Ducks....if they can do work on the perimeter, then OSU will give up a boatload. This is a possible big advantage for UO.
3) There is huge money on OSU moneyline in this one. Take a look at the article on the front of covers.........and they are right. +220 to +170 is no joke. Nobody with any sense is playing UO just to win. The perfect scenario for Vegas is a Duck win, but no cover. I respect that.
All in all, this is a great spot for a 2/1 dog to come out and beat a lesser opponent, convincingly. BUT will it happen? That is anybody's guess.
Already locked in OSU ML +195.
If I can get +7 or better today, I will be taking that bet at 3x the ML bet.
If the Ducks roll, so be it. GL to all.