I don’t think many people realize how much
Xavier is losing today. Xavier only played 7 players for significant minutes
last year; 3 of them graduated in the spring, and 3 of them are on suspension
today. Tu Holloway (out today), the team’s leader and point guard, averages
17.6 ppg, 36.3 minutes per game, 4 rebounds and 5 assists per game this year,
which is surely nothing to bat an eyelash over, but he’s even better than that.
CYB ranked Holloway #5 overall on the Top 100 players for 2012, which made him
preseason Player of the Year in the A-10, as well as every other mid-major
conference, the Pac-12, Big 12, and Big East. CYP say Holloway is arguably the
best creator, scorer, and defensive player in the A-10. Holloway was the only
non-senior on the A-10 All-Defense team last year, and he essentially never
left the floor, playing 95% of Xavier’s team minutes and played at least 38
minutes in every game that Xavier didn’t win by eight points or more. If you’ve
ever played the game of basketball, you know what a valuable asset your point
guard is to your squad.
Mark Lyons (out today) was the only A-10
underclassman to make all-conference last year. He played 35 minutes per game and averaged
13.4 points per game. This year he’s shot an impressive .505 on FG%, .433 on 3 pointers, .813 from
the charity stripe, giving him 17.4 ppg on just 30.6 minutes per game. His
absence will surely be missed for Xavier, especially offensively.
Wells (out today), while just a
freshman, has also been great for the Musketeers. He ranked in the top 50 for
high school class of 2011, plays a bruising, attacking, driving game, and he
should be able to outmuscle any opposing guard in the conference [college
yearbook prospective]. Wells averages 9.5 points per game and 4.5 rebounds.
Holloway, Lyons, and Wells have combined
to average 44.5 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game. Xavier will
have only eight scholarship players available today, and four of them have never
started a collegiate game. They will need to rely more on Frease today, who is
a fantastic center, and he should give Oral fits in the paint the entire game.
Oral was projected to struggle on the defensive end this season, but they have
held their own and are continuing to improve. They’re a very disciplined team,
well coached, and shoot at a high %. They shoot .470, which is 58th
overall in D1, and average 74.1 ppg (86th overall). They are
projected to finish first in the Summit League, and return everyone from their
team that made it to the conference championship game last season. 98% RET.
This is a hard game to bet on, but Oral
surely has the edge to me. I don’t care about Xavier’s home record; it’s not
like Oral hasn’t played away games this year. They’ve played on the road to
WVU, Gonzaga, and Oklahoma. And they’re playing a totally different Xavier
squad today. Xavier’s bench is deep. Most of the kids on the Xavier bench would
be starting on any other A-10 team no doubt, and could make an impact on their
team if they got more minutes. They’ll be fired up today and excited to show what
they can do on a basketball court. But that doesn’t mean Oral is going to roll
over and let them get a win.
Oral +7