It's time to admit I am not a good capper. I am done fooling myself. Vegas is smarter and I am fine admitting that now. I have decided to start taking the games that make no sense to me and that I would usually play the other side.
American -5
American stinks. They lost to Holy Cross by 19 last time, naturally they should be giving 5 points? Makes no sense so American is the pick
Illinois St. -2
Wichita St. is the cream of the crop in the MO Valley. Top 40 RPI, national TV, statement game, not a great loss for their resume, so of course they will lose.
UNCG -5
Did I say American stinks, I should have saved that for UNCG. 5 wins on the season, lost to Appalachian by 13 in their first meeting. Giving 5 of course the old me would be all over App St.
Manhattan -2
Manhattan has won 4 in a row but are in the middle of the pack in the MAAC and playing 1st place Niagara who is 11-4 in conf. They did play Niagara tough on the road, maybe this pick does make sense. This one will probably be a loss.
Northwestern +4
Northwestern is hurt and reeling and ILL is on fire so they should blow the Wildcats out right? Makes no sense so deserves my money.
It's time to admit I am not a good capper. I am done fooling myself. Vegas is smarter and I am fine admitting that now. I have decided to start taking the games that make no sense to me and that I would usually play the other side.
American -5
American stinks. They lost to Holy Cross by 19 last time, naturally they should be giving 5 points? Makes no sense so American is the pick
Illinois St. -2
Wichita St. is the cream of the crop in the MO Valley. Top 40 RPI, national TV, statement game, not a great loss for their resume, so of course they will lose.
UNCG -5
Did I say American stinks, I should have saved that for UNCG. 5 wins on the season, lost to Appalachian by 13 in their first meeting. Giving 5 of course the old me would be all over App St.
Manhattan -2
Manhattan has won 4 in a row but are in the middle of the pack in the MAAC and playing 1st place Niagara who is 11-4 in conf. They did play Niagara tough on the road, maybe this pick does make sense. This one will probably be a loss.
Northwestern +4
Northwestern is hurt and reeling and ILL is on fire so they should blow the Wildcats out right? Makes no sense so deserves my money.
U have figured out Vegas and were all going to be billionaires. ..been doing this for over 20 yrs and if I had a dollar each time someone tried this system and failed I would be a millionaire. Never and I mean never let the books decide the side u should bet on just because of a line. Trust me every system has been tried way way before u guys.
U have figured out Vegas and were all going to be billionaires. ..been doing this for over 20 yrs and if I had a dollar each time someone tried this system and failed I would be a millionaire. Never and I mean never let the books decide the side u should bet on just because of a line. Trust me every system has been tried way way before u guys.
We have all gone thru that frustration - and the first thing to admit is yes they are smart people - however, instead of fighting them - or declaring they are smarter than you - use them. I suggest looking at data and following patterns that incorporate the line makers opening line - for example:
JMU 9.7 11.6 184 252 45.4%
5 Del. 10.4 11.4 145 126 40.4
What we have here is Deleware opens up as a 5 pt favorite (donbest.com). Second, you can tell a lot about a team based on assists to turnovers - in this case both teams have negative assists to turnovers - 9.7 - 11.6 (checkout statfox .com). Next you have to consider each teams power rankings - on paper jmu is worst compared to deleware 184 to 145 (sagarin rankings). You also have to look at Schedule strength - 252 to 126. Clearly on paper deleware is better. Look at shooting percentage defense and once again deleware is better at 40.4 vice jmu' 45.4. Once again on paper Deleware should crush - however, it doesn't work that way (what I have found in my years doing this) because non of us know for sure what data and the exact weight oddsmakers give to each component to come up with the line. My data reflects what I consider the key drivers - therefore, I record results and the scenarios and have developed trends to follow. This happens to be a game I love and will take JMU with the points - I also think they can win this game su possibly. It takes work and I would suggest don't always go against the logical choice. For example, Wichita st should come out on top based on my data. good luck to you.
We have all gone thru that frustration - and the first thing to admit is yes they are smart people - however, instead of fighting them - or declaring they are smarter than you - use them. I suggest looking at data and following patterns that incorporate the line makers opening line - for example:
JMU 9.7 11.6 184 252 45.4%
5 Del. 10.4 11.4 145 126 40.4
What we have here is Deleware opens up as a 5 pt favorite (donbest.com). Second, you can tell a lot about a team based on assists to turnovers - in this case both teams have negative assists to turnovers - 9.7 - 11.6 (checkout statfox .com). Next you have to consider each teams power rankings - on paper jmu is worst compared to deleware 184 to 145 (sagarin rankings). You also have to look at Schedule strength - 252 to 126. Clearly on paper deleware is better. Look at shooting percentage defense and once again deleware is better at 40.4 vice jmu' 45.4. Once again on paper Deleware should crush - however, it doesn't work that way (what I have found in my years doing this) because non of us know for sure what data and the exact weight oddsmakers give to each component to come up with the line. My data reflects what I consider the key drivers - therefore, I record results and the scenarios and have developed trends to follow. This happens to be a game I love and will take JMU with the points - I also think they can win this game su possibly. It takes work and I would suggest don't always go against the logical choice. For example, Wichita st should come out on top based on my data. good luck to you.
the planets do align every now n then but this is the beast of gambling. the system is tilted in most cases and its sh!tluck most of the time to win a huge payout. play small,get the ball rollin,thats the key.
the planets do align every now n then but this is the beast of gambling. the system is tilted in most cases and its sh!tluck most of the time to win a huge payout. play small,get the ball rollin,thats the key.
Bet games you like but when you come Across duke vs md games and Clemson va Miami where the line is Soooooo fishy. Take the opposite. Games are rigged guys. Time to admit and work with it. Not all but those 2 I noted were 100% rigged to win Vegas money
Bet games you like but when you come Across duke vs md games and Clemson va Miami where the line is Soooooo fishy. Take the opposite. Games are rigged guys. Time to admit and work with it. Not all but those 2 I noted were 100% rigged to win Vegas money
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