A brief disclaimer that I had posted from yesterday:
Sorry to anyone who tailed me on Drexel. I really am. Or St. Peter's. Georgia State destroyed; St. Peter's remains a loser.
But don't come crying/blaming me or sending me hateful private messages when you follow me and I don't win you money. I never insist that anything is a lock or encourage you to follow my advice. I merely provide a rationale for the reason that I select the choices that I do. It's up to you to interpret my caps or whatever and determine for yourself whether the information that I provide is enough to support my picks.
If you wanna fade me, be my guest. I won't discourage you or even say anything.
Not much for tomorrow. Probably best, as I've been trying to cut down
A brief disclaimer that I had posted from yesterday:
Sorry to anyone who tailed me on Drexel. I really am. Or St. Peter's. Georgia State destroyed; St. Peter's remains a loser.
But don't come crying/blaming me or sending me hateful private messages when you follow me and I don't win you money. I never insist that anything is a lock or encourage you to follow my advice. I merely provide a rationale for the reason that I select the choices that I do. It's up to you to interpret my caps or whatever and determine for yourself whether the information that I provide is enough to support my picks.
If you wanna fade me, be my guest. I won't discourage you or even say anything.
Not much for tomorrow. Probably best, as I've been trying to cut down
yessir mariner i'll have them up in a little bit just looking at a couple more games right now. about to log into bookmaker and see if that IPFW line dropped to 3 so i can hammer that shi*
yessir mariner i'll have them up in a little bit just looking at a couple more games right now. about to log into bookmaker and see if that IPFW line dropped to 3 so i can hammer that shi*
well so much for fort wayne lol. public beat me to it
Drake +15
I'm starting to think I'm on the wrong side of this one. But I'm keeping it.
Playing on the road in the valley is hard. And Creighton is good at home (they went 19-3 last year and are 6-1 this year). They have the biggest arena in the MVC, and I doubt any Drake fans are going to drive to Omaha for this game. The Blue Jays are 6th in PPG and 7th in FG%. They return 6 of their top 7 scorers (the top 3 return) from last year and return 10 of 14 players from 2010-2011 overall. They are the #2 3pt shooting efficiency team in the country, and #8 offense as a total. Drake is horrible at defending the 3, at #263 in the country. 8 of Creighton's 11 wins were double digit wins. They crushed an Iowa team that just beat Wisconsin, 82-59, on a neutral court; Drake lost to this same team 82-68.
...but I'm a sucker. It's hard to beat a team by 15 points. Especially an conference foe that is familiar with your team. Drake has experience on their side, too: they return 11 out of 14 players this year, and 3 of their 5 top scorers. Last year, they lost to Creighton at Creighton by 16 points, and then beat them at home by 3 points.
Drake's lost only one game by 15 points or more this season. It was the Boise State slaughter of the century. Probably a bad idea, but I'm going to downplay that game, and just assume they were getting romped and just kinda gave up and let it get away from them, as it was their first road game of the season. Before that game, Drake was allowing just 59.5 points and hadn't given up more than 65 points. And aside from that game, Drake has been playing good teams and keeping it competitive. They lost to Virginia by 8, Miss by 4, they beat Indiana State and Iowa State, lost to Missouri St. by 9.
Tough test for Drake. They've got a shallow frontcourt and are going to have a rough time with McDermott and Echqiniche. But I still think Creighton is a little overrated this year. And covering a 15 point spread is hard.
well so much for fort wayne lol. public beat me to it
Drake +15
I'm starting to think I'm on the wrong side of this one. But I'm keeping it.
Playing on the road in the valley is hard. And Creighton is good at home (they went 19-3 last year and are 6-1 this year). They have the biggest arena in the MVC, and I doubt any Drake fans are going to drive to Omaha for this game. The Blue Jays are 6th in PPG and 7th in FG%. They return 6 of their top 7 scorers (the top 3 return) from last year and return 10 of 14 players from 2010-2011 overall. They are the #2 3pt shooting efficiency team in the country, and #8 offense as a total. Drake is horrible at defending the 3, at #263 in the country. 8 of Creighton's 11 wins were double digit wins. They crushed an Iowa team that just beat Wisconsin, 82-59, on a neutral court; Drake lost to this same team 82-68.
...but I'm a sucker. It's hard to beat a team by 15 points. Especially an conference foe that is familiar with your team. Drake has experience on their side, too: they return 11 out of 14 players this year, and 3 of their 5 top scorers. Last year, they lost to Creighton at Creighton by 16 points, and then beat them at home by 3 points.
Drake's lost only one game by 15 points or more this season. It was the Boise State slaughter of the century. Probably a bad idea, but I'm going to downplay that game, and just assume they were getting romped and just kinda gave up and let it get away from them, as it was their first road game of the season. Before that game, Drake was allowing just 59.5 points and hadn't given up more than 65 points. And aside from that game, Drake has been playing good teams and keeping it competitive. They lost to Virginia by 8, Miss by 4, they beat Indiana State and Iowa State, lost to Missouri St. by 9.
Tough test for Drake. They've got a shallow frontcourt and are going to have a rough time with McDermott and Echqiniche. But I still think Creighton is a little overrated this year. And covering a 15 point spread is hard.
I am looking hard at South Dakota, I have cold feet with Drake since they got pounded when I backed them against Indiana St and i think Creighton is better..I am a big Terp guy but Cornell would be my play if I played that game, it was already at 8.5 last I saw. GL tonight.
I am looking hard at South Dakota, I have cold feet with Drake since they got pounded when I backed them against Indiana St and i think Creighton is better..I am a big Terp guy but Cornell would be my play if I played that game, it was already at 8.5 last I saw. GL tonight.
Yeah man that was ridiculous, huh? Backdoor or not, glad we both came out winners though.
Yeah, I might get off this Drake bet. I got on it prematurely last night because I knew it would move. But I got it at 15, and I might be able to snag it at 13 sometime today, so there's no point in buying off early.
I like South Dakota a lot and will probably share my thoughts on that game today. Hard for me to believe W. Illinois is laying points to anybody.
I'm a Terps fan as well. But they blow this year...haha
Yeah man that was ridiculous, huh? Backdoor or not, glad we both came out winners though.
Yeah, I might get off this Drake bet. I got on it prematurely last night because I knew it would move. But I got it at 15, and I might be able to snag it at 13 sometime today, so there's no point in buying off early.
I like South Dakota a lot and will probably share my thoughts on that game today. Hard for me to believe W. Illinois is laying points to anybody.
I'm a Terps fan as well. But they blow this year...haha
Fading W. Illinois. Here's what Prospectus had to say about this team in preseason:
Centenary received a lot of attention last year because of its historically bad season. The Gents were 0-28 heading into the last weekend of their last year as a Division I program. Their roster was largely comprised of non-scholarship players who would struggle
to walk-on for a typical D-I team. The only reason they did not go winless was because they played a gutted Western Illinois in the last week of the season. If it weren’t for Centenary’s misery, folks might have been talking more about WIU’s plight. The Leathernecks won just two games in Summit League play and
finished the year on a 13-game losing streak. Despite the valiant effort of senior Matt Lander, Western Illinois just couldn’t score – their offense was actually worse than Centenary’s. The season-long struggles were largely the result of a number of season-ending
injuries. The most notable among the injured was Ceola Clark. The 6-3 point guard did everything for WIU the year before. He was their most efficient and prominent scorer, leading assist man, and best defender. Without him, the Necks floundered. Without the collection of other injured players, the team was helpless.
Though a number of the injured will return this season, coach Jim Molinari lost just about every important player from last year’s team other than Clark. Perhaps that’s for the best.
Prospectus picked W. Illinois to finish last in the Summit, and finish as the #333 team in the country overall. Looks like they'll do much better than that, after already winning 6 games and keeping it close w/ Michigan. But two of those wins were against non-ranked opponents.
South Dakota is new to the Summit this year, but they return 6 of their top 8 scorers from last year. They led the Great West, their former conference, in offensive efficiency, @ 1.11 points per possession. Their offensive isn't nearly as efficient this year, but they still put up 72 points per game and shoot 45.7% from the field. They aren't really a 3pt shooting team, but that's fine. Western Illinois is #234 in the country at defensive effective fg%.
W Illinois's offense is pretty bad. They put up 64.7 ppg, and are #249 in overall offensive efficiency. They've failed to put up 70 points in one game this year against a D1 team (remember, South Dakota averages 72 ppg).
I'm taking the points here and it's my favorite play today. W Illinois has failed to impress me; after looking through the Kenpom stat summary, there's really not one thing, offensively or defensively, that sticks out and impresses. They aren't really that good at anything. They're likely overachieving this year, and they're not a team that blows out teams, especially a South Dakota team that has a pretty decent offense. S Dakota's defense is bad, but they should get the job done.
Also, W Illinois is the 9th slowest team in the country and will likely slow this game down. The line on this game is set at 128.5. It's difficult to cover a 9 point spread when you have two teams that finish in the 50s and 60s.
Fading W. Illinois. Here's what Prospectus had to say about this team in preseason:
Centenary received a lot of attention last year because of its historically bad season. The Gents were 0-28 heading into the last weekend of their last year as a Division I program. Their roster was largely comprised of non-scholarship players who would struggle
to walk-on for a typical D-I team. The only reason they did not go winless was because they played a gutted Western Illinois in the last week of the season. If it weren’t for Centenary’s misery, folks might have been talking more about WIU’s plight. The Leathernecks won just two games in Summit League play and
finished the year on a 13-game losing streak. Despite the valiant effort of senior Matt Lander, Western Illinois just couldn’t score – their offense was actually worse than Centenary’s. The season-long struggles were largely the result of a number of season-ending
injuries. The most notable among the injured was Ceola Clark. The 6-3 point guard did everything for WIU the year before. He was their most efficient and prominent scorer, leading assist man, and best defender. Without him, the Necks floundered. Without the collection of other injured players, the team was helpless.
Though a number of the injured will return this season, coach Jim Molinari lost just about every important player from last year’s team other than Clark. Perhaps that’s for the best.
Prospectus picked W. Illinois to finish last in the Summit, and finish as the #333 team in the country overall. Looks like they'll do much better than that, after already winning 6 games and keeping it close w/ Michigan. But two of those wins were against non-ranked opponents.
South Dakota is new to the Summit this year, but they return 6 of their top 8 scorers from last year. They led the Great West, their former conference, in offensive efficiency, @ 1.11 points per possession. Their offensive isn't nearly as efficient this year, but they still put up 72 points per game and shoot 45.7% from the field. They aren't really a 3pt shooting team, but that's fine. Western Illinois is #234 in the country at defensive effective fg%.
W Illinois's offense is pretty bad. They put up 64.7 ppg, and are #249 in overall offensive efficiency. They've failed to put up 70 points in one game this year against a D1 team (remember, South Dakota averages 72 ppg).
I'm taking the points here and it's my favorite play today. W Illinois has failed to impress me; after looking through the Kenpom stat summary, there's really not one thing, offensively or defensively, that sticks out and impresses. They aren't really that good at anything. They're likely overachieving this year, and they're not a team that blows out teams, especially a South Dakota team that has a pretty decent offense. S Dakota's defense is bad, but they should get the job done.
Also, W Illinois is the 9th slowest team in the country and will likely slow this game down. The line on this game is set at 128.5. It's difficult to cover a 9 point spread when you have two teams that finish in the 50s and 60s.
Yea they really do, I miss Gary already, we'll see what they look liek in a month before I make any call on Turgeon. I heard Gary on the Big ten network over the weekend.
Yea they really do, I miss Gary already, we'll see what they look liek in a month before I make any call on Turgeon. I heard Gary on the Big ten network over the weekend.
Because Maryland sucks this year, and Cornell has the chance to win this straight up. Maryland has two double digit wins this year: Samford (12 points), and Albany (11 points).
Only 2 of those games WERENT home games, and most of them were against TRASH opponents; Colorado was on a neutral court, and Notre Dame was "Semi-Home".
So even at home, Maryland lacks the ability to become a killing force capable of pulling off safe double-digit wins against teams. Especially a decent Cornell team that has only lost 1 game by double digits this year (the first game of the season against a dangerous St Bonnies team), and has stayed competitive as shown by the following:
Lost to #51 Illinois by only 4 points
Lost to #78 Buffalo by 9 Lost to #156 Penn State by 7 points Lost to #159 Stony Brook by 9, in OT Lost to #129 Bucknell by 3 Lost to #178 Delaware by 8
Cornell has already played 7 games on the road this year, and their last 4 games were on the road. Their last 4 games were tough, too. So they shouldnt be intimidated in College Park. They were projected to finish 3rd in the Ivy and #120 NCAA. And probably will, they're just on a rough stretch of non-conference games and have been unable to grab wins. But really, Maryland -9, with a new coach, a young team, and nothing impressive this year? Cornell returns 80% of their offensive production this year and 54% of defensive. Gimme those points.
Because Maryland sucks this year, and Cornell has the chance to win this straight up. Maryland has two double digit wins this year: Samford (12 points), and Albany (11 points).
Only 2 of those games WERENT home games, and most of them were against TRASH opponents; Colorado was on a neutral court, and Notre Dame was "Semi-Home".
So even at home, Maryland lacks the ability to become a killing force capable of pulling off safe double-digit wins against teams. Especially a decent Cornell team that has only lost 1 game by double digits this year (the first game of the season against a dangerous St Bonnies team), and has stayed competitive as shown by the following:
Lost to #51 Illinois by only 4 points
Lost to #78 Buffalo by 9 Lost to #156 Penn State by 7 points Lost to #159 Stony Brook by 9, in OT Lost to #129 Bucknell by 3 Lost to #178 Delaware by 8
Cornell has already played 7 games on the road this year, and their last 4 games were on the road. Their last 4 games were tough, too. So they shouldnt be intimidated in College Park. They were projected to finish 3rd in the Ivy and #120 NCAA. And probably will, they're just on a rough stretch of non-conference games and have been unable to grab wins. But really, Maryland -9, with a new coach, a young team, and nothing impressive this year? Cornell returns 80% of their offensive production this year and 54% of defensive. Gimme those points.
I don't really have much to say about the UAB pick. It's just a lot of points for a slow UAB team that has seen a lot of competition this year and kept it close in most games. Florida is the #1 offense right now, but they still barely got the 20 point win over a Yale team that I think sucks, and UAB plays the #66 defense in the country this year, although their turnover-prone offense is disgustingly bad. UAB was picked to finish 2nd in C-USA only to Memphis and #72 in all of NCAA, and while it appears at the moment that Tulsa/Marshall/UCF might all finish ahead of them, UAB has played a bunch of road games this year and has been playing a little bit better, winning their last 4 of 5. But the VCU game was ugly.
I don't really have much to say about the UAB pick. It's just a lot of points for a slow UAB team that has seen a lot of competition this year and kept it close in most games. Florida is the #1 offense right now, but they still barely got the 20 point win over a Yale team that I think sucks, and UAB plays the #66 defense in the country this year, although their turnover-prone offense is disgustingly bad. UAB was picked to finish 2nd in C-USA only to Memphis and #72 in all of NCAA, and while it appears at the moment that Tulsa/Marshall/UCF might all finish ahead of them, UAB has played a bunch of road games this year and has been playing a little bit better, winning their last 4 of 5. But the VCU game was ugly.
Thanks to TRoe for posting this, if not for him i doubt i would have taken a deeper look
Milwaukee/W Michigan u128.5
milwaukee's third game in 7 days...theyve gotta be tired...PG mike douglas is out with a shoulder injury @ 12.5 ppg...hutcheson with a hurt shoulder as well...the broncos only have 9 healthy players...milwaukee the best team in country at stopping the 3...6th worst at FT%...just committed to keeping a slow pace and play absolute lockdown defense
Thanks to TRoe for posting this, if not for him i doubt i would have taken a deeper look
Milwaukee/W Michigan u128.5
milwaukee's third game in 7 days...theyve gotta be tired...PG mike douglas is out with a shoulder injury @ 12.5 ppg...hutcheson with a hurt shoulder as well...the broncos only have 9 healthy players...milwaukee the best team in country at stopping the 3...6th worst at FT%...just committed to keeping a slow pace and play absolute lockdown defense
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