YTD: 5-1
The recent results for East Carolina games gives a good opportunity to play a total that has been set too low for a game that I believe will have above average pace and lack of defensive intensity due to the opponent they will be playing.
Play: East Carolina / UNC-Greensboro Over 138
Looking at ECU’s three most recent games, we saw totals of 121 vs ODU, 140 vs Charlotte, and 121 vs UMass—not the ideal trend for a team we are looking to back an over with. However, there is one common characteristic that each of those opponents brought to the game, and that was defense. Each of these teams ranks in the top #95 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency with none of them allowing more than 0.96 pts per possession. This is a stark contrast with what ECU will face when they take the floor vs UNCG tonight.
Let’s start with UNCG’s defensive intensity. To say UNC-G struggles on defense is a gross understatement. They enter tonight’s game allowing 1.082 pts per poss (#311 in the nation) and over 77 points per game. But this only scratches the surface of their lack of defensive effort. In the 9 games vs D1 competition, 6 of those teams had their season high for points in regulation come in their game vs UNCG. This bears repeating, 67% of UNCG’s opponents had their best offensive output of the season vs the Spartan defense ECU will face tonight. The list includes Tennessee scoring 92, Georgetown 86, Towson 60 (this is not a typo – it’s the only game Towson has scored 60+ this year), North Carolina A&T 87, Appalachian St 78, and Elon 80.
And it is not only a lack of defensive intensity that UNCG will bring to the table that is a good recipe for an over. They also want to play fast—to the tune of 70.7 possessions per game (29th fastest in the country). This suits ECU fine as they have not played a game yet this year with less than 67 possessions.
There also is some value when looking at the recent historical trends of when these teams have faced each other over the last 3 years. During that time, the average posted total was 147.3, nearly 10 points higher than tonight’s total. This is despite the fact that both teams are actually playing faster this season than they have in the past 3 seasons—ECU +0.9 possessions faster and UNCG +2.7 possessions faster. KenPom predicts 71 possessions tonight.
Could this game go under, of course it could. Especially since both offenses average less than .98 pts per possession on the season. But this should be taken with a grain of salt since both teams have faced a defensive strength of schedule to date that ranks in the top 70 in the country. In my opinion, I think this match-up is exactly what both teams need to have an offensive break out.
Lastly, with the line set at 4.5, the odds are that it will be a relatively close game that will include some end game fouling situations. Furthermore, UNCG gives up the 3rd most FT attempts per FG attempts in the country so there should be plenty of opportunities to score without the clock moving.
Good luck if you decide to make a play