Who else is pumped about this match-up tonight!?! Never thought i would ever so excited about a mountain west regular season match-up!
why I am excited:
1) I placed a futures bet on BYU +10000 to win the championship 2 months ago. Odds are know at approx +5000. This is a great spot to see how BYU will perform against elite competition. More specifically, will fredette and emory be able to get good clean looks at the basket on a consistent basis? This is the key to BYU's success against bigger and/or more athletic teams.
2) Nothing better than a conference rivalry between 2 schools having great seasons and being in national title contention. The fans are going to be pumped, this is going to feel like a playoff game. The intensity level kicks the crap out of your typical regular season NBA game.
Current line is BYU -5
Lets get everyones thoughts on the line and figure out the best side OR if this is a no-play. No total available just yet, but I would lean over, whatever the number is.
Who else is pumped about this match-up tonight!?! Never thought i would ever so excited about a mountain west regular season match-up!
why I am excited:
1) I placed a futures bet on BYU +10000 to win the championship 2 months ago. Odds are know at approx +5000. This is a great spot to see how BYU will perform against elite competition. More specifically, will fredette and emory be able to get good clean looks at the basket on a consistent basis? This is the key to BYU's success against bigger and/or more athletic teams.
2) Nothing better than a conference rivalry between 2 schools having great seasons and being in national title contention. The fans are going to be pumped, this is going to feel like a playoff game. The intensity level kicks the crap out of your typical regular season NBA game.
Current line is BYU -5
Lets get everyones thoughts on the line and figure out the best side OR if this is a no-play. No total available just yet, but I would lean over, whatever the number is.
I like San Diego St's frontline to do very well against BYU. Fredette will get his of course but I think they should let him score 30 on 20 shots and hold him to 2 assists. That's a winning formula IMO.
I like San Diego St's frontline to do very well against BYU. Fredette will get his of course but I think they should let him score 30 on 20 shots and hold him to 2 assists. That's a winning formula IMO.
Ask your book this question: do they get 50/50 action on games? Absolutely not. So they will bait the bettor into taking the side they know will get the higher % of action....this case its SD St. The media plays into this a bit too as ESPN promotes the mid major because its good for ratings. SD St falls into the Miami Ohio and Butler category. Good luck whatever side you take.
Ask your book this question: do they get 50/50 action on games? Absolutely not. So they will bait the bettor into taking the side they know will get the higher % of action....this case its SD St. The media plays into this a bit too as ESPN promotes the mid major because its good for ratings. SD St falls into the Miami Ohio and Butler category. Good luck whatever side you take.
I dont know who told you this, but go get your money back. He was lying. They take stands on several games a night based on some information they have.
I dont know who told you this, but go get your money back. He was lying. They take stands on several games a night based on some information they have.
San Diego St, is coming of age but BYU has shown what they can do against everyone, at home or on the road, I like Jimmer and the boys, too many weapons ......
San Diego St, is coming of age but BYU has shown what they can do against everyone, at home or on the road, I like Jimmer and the boys, too many weapons ......
Oddsmakers have to find a fine balance between getting approx 50/50 action and setting a tight line so that someone who is a smart bettor doesn't take advantage of a ""bad" line with a huge bet. A line might be getting 50/50 action all day long, then all it takes is a few big bets in a matter of minutes to off-set the even action.... or vice versa....
More importantly, oddsmakers need to get 50/50 for all games combined on the board over the course of the year.... there are thousands of games, so if the book takes a hit on one game due one-sided action, that is going to balance out over the course of thousands of games.
More importantly, I have learned the hard way: NEVER ever use betting percentages or line movement to make your pick. This will drive you nuts and is unpredictable.
Use the betting percentages/line movement to get the best line for the side you like.
Oddsmakers have to find a fine balance between getting approx 50/50 action and setting a tight line so that someone who is a smart bettor doesn't take advantage of a ""bad" line with a huge bet. A line might be getting 50/50 action all day long, then all it takes is a few big bets in a matter of minutes to off-set the even action.... or vice versa....
More importantly, oddsmakers need to get 50/50 for all games combined on the board over the course of the year.... there are thousands of games, so if the book takes a hit on one game due one-sided action, that is going to balance out over the course of thousands of games.
More importantly, I have learned the hard way: NEVER ever use betting percentages or line movement to make your pick. This will drive you nuts and is unpredictable.
Use the betting percentages/line movement to get the best line for the side you like.
Ask your book this question: do they get 50/50 action on games? Absolutely not. So they will bait the bettor into taking the side they know will get the higher % of action....this case its SD St. The media plays into this a bit too as ESPN promotes the mid major because its good for ratings. SD St falls into the Miami Ohio and Butler category. Good luck whatever side you take.
Actually my bookie loves getting 50/50 action. Unless there is a push, he is going to make money on juice. If there is 1000 on each side of a game, he is going to make $100 unless there is a push. If there is 10,000 on each side of a game he will make $1,000.
Ask your book this question: do they get 50/50 action on games? Absolutely not. So they will bait the bettor into taking the side they know will get the higher % of action....this case its SD St. The media plays into this a bit too as ESPN promotes the mid major because its good for ratings. SD St falls into the Miami Ohio and Butler category. Good luck whatever side you take.
Actually my bookie loves getting 50/50 action. Unless there is a push, he is going to make money on juice. If there is 1000 on each side of a game, he is going to make $100 unless there is a push. If there is 10,000 on each side of a game he will make $1,000.
If you go by past history, it will help. Teams usually step up when a player goes down.
How many times I read a square betting against the Spurs because Duncan was out, only to see em still cover.
In the NBA, when a star goes, down, the very first game he is out the bench steps up, overperforms, while the other team has a letdown, but eventually, the talent deflation catches up to performance output and the team misses the key player....
Collinsworth is a solid player and this size and rebounding will be missed in games where emery and freddette have an off game.... The question is how much will they miss the big man and have any bench players stepped up their performance since he went out?
If you go by past history, it will help. Teams usually step up when a player goes down.
How many times I read a square betting against the Spurs because Duncan was out, only to see em still cover.
In the NBA, when a star goes, down, the very first game he is out the bench steps up, overperforms, while the other team has a letdown, but eventually, the talent deflation catches up to performance output and the team misses the key player....
Collinsworth is a solid player and this size and rebounding will be missed in games where emery and freddette have an off game.... The question is how much will they miss the big man and have any bench players stepped up their performance since he went out?
Actually my bookie loves getting 50/50 action. Unless there is a push, he is going to make money on juice. If there is 1000 on each side of a game, he is going to make $100 unless there is a push. If there is 10,000 on each side of a game he will make $1,000.
a small bookie with less than 100 players will want a 50/50 split of total money for every game, as he is potentially taking a big risk on a game by game basis. Which is why you usually see distorted local lines for home teams or "public" favorites.
a large book with thousands of players won't give a crap about a 50/50 split for every game. They care more about a 50/50 split averaged over all games over the long term. In fact, some large books are even willing to take chances if they have info that one side is a stronger bet.
Actually my bookie loves getting 50/50 action. Unless there is a push, he is going to make money on juice. If there is 1000 on each side of a game, he is going to make $100 unless there is a push. If there is 10,000 on each side of a game he will make $1,000.
a small bookie with less than 100 players will want a 50/50 split of total money for every game, as he is potentially taking a big risk on a game by game basis. Which is why you usually see distorted local lines for home teams or "public" favorites.
a large book with thousands of players won't give a crap about a 50/50 split for every game. They care more about a 50/50 split averaged over all games over the long term. In fact, some large books are even willing to take chances if they have info that one side is a stronger bet.
In the NBA, when a star goes, down, the very first game he is out the bench steps up, overperforms, while the other team has a letdown, but eventually, the talent deflation catches up to performance output and the team misses the key player....
Collinsworth is a solid player and this size and rebounding will be missed in games where emery and freddette have an off game.... The question is how much will they miss the big man and have any bench players stepped up their performance since he went out?
And I thought I was the only one that knew that angle. I agree it's like a ATM in the NBA... about 75% the tricky part is who is the key players, and who are the role players? There is plenty of grey area...
And that is only half of the explanation. I think the other half (and possibly more important), is that the opposing team sees the KEY PLAYER is out, and they mail it in that night, WHILE the team missing the key player is letting it all out on the floor.
In the NBA, when a star goes, down, the very first game he is out the bench steps up, overperforms, while the other team has a letdown, but eventually, the talent deflation catches up to performance output and the team misses the key player....
Collinsworth is a solid player and this size and rebounding will be missed in games where emery and freddette have an off game.... The question is how much will they miss the big man and have any bench players stepped up their performance since he went out?
And I thought I was the only one that knew that angle. I agree it's like a ATM in the NBA... about 75% the tricky part is who is the key players, and who are the role players? There is plenty of grey area...
And that is only half of the explanation. I think the other half (and possibly more important), is that the opposing team sees the KEY PLAYER is out, and they mail it in that night, WHILE the team missing the key player is letting it all out on the floor.
Actually my bookie loves getting 50/50 action. Unless there is a push, he is going to make money on juice. If there is 1000 on each side of a game, he is going to make $100 unless there is a push. If there is 10,000 on each side of a game he will make $1,000.
I understand the 50/50 aspect but books will always have more money riding on one side over the other. If you book has 20k wagered on the game it will not be 10k and 10k. He'll more than likely have 11k and 9k so he's cheering for the team who has 9k bet on them. over the course of each night your book might have this scenario with a few games and he needs to split out on those games to be neutral and win his 10%.
Actually my bookie loves getting 50/50 action. Unless there is a push, he is going to make money on juice. If there is 1000 on each side of a game, he is going to make $100 unless there is a push. If there is 10,000 on each side of a game he will make $1,000.
I understand the 50/50 aspect but books will always have more money riding on one side over the other. If you book has 20k wagered on the game it will not be 10k and 10k. He'll more than likely have 11k and 9k so he's cheering for the team who has 9k bet on them. over the course of each night your book might have this scenario with a few games and he needs to split out on those games to be neutral and win his 10%.
The intensity level kicks the crap out of your typical regular season NBA game. Couldn't have said it better bob Can't wait to see how many Jimmer throws in, i'm looking for a stellar performance from a straight flame thrower! Simply put, if you take JF out of this game, its not even coming close 2 this much hype. Kid's a baller and he's probably the #1 reason I've been following this team since last year. I also give respect to his teammates and SDSU for what they've accomplished, but al I gotta say is if Jimmer would happen 2 go out w/ an injury or foul out, BYU is done. Here's hoping he goes off for 45 in a killer OT thrilla! As for my play, um not eveing touching a side. Just gonna sit back and watch the fireworks and look for an 87-81 final, either or. I'm def. a fan of BYU, just more of a fan of money. Good luck in whatever you play 2nite!
The intensity level kicks the crap out of your typical regular season NBA game. Couldn't have said it better bob Can't wait to see how many Jimmer throws in, i'm looking for a stellar performance from a straight flame thrower! Simply put, if you take JF out of this game, its not even coming close 2 this much hype. Kid's a baller and he's probably the #1 reason I've been following this team since last year. I also give respect to his teammates and SDSU for what they've accomplished, but al I gotta say is if Jimmer would happen 2 go out w/ an injury or foul out, BYU is done. Here's hoping he goes off for 45 in a killer OT thrilla! As for my play, um not eveing touching a side. Just gonna sit back and watch the fireworks and look for an 87-81 final, either or. I'm def. a fan of BYU, just more of a fan of money. Good luck in whatever you play 2nite!
I put a line at -8 for BYU by the numbers but I don't buy it. San Diego St will bring their game. I think BYU struggles in this one. Also very surprised an undefeated team is catching 5 and getting no backing.
I put a line at -8 for BYU by the numbers but I don't buy it. San Diego St will bring their game. I think BYU struggles in this one. Also very surprised an undefeated team is catching 5 and getting no backing.
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